Races · Governor · 2026 · Illinois
Governor · open seat
JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.1 (10th pctile) to D+31.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
CITATIONS · lean-d · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.1
80% CI: D +9.1 → D +31.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.9
80% CI R +22.9 → D +14.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +18.8
80% CI D +15.0 → D +22.6
CV MAE 2.97
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.2
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 39 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 93% · polls 53%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Nov 24, 2025 · latest Victory Research
JB Pritzker
VoteHub54.0%
VoteHub
Polling average54.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg53.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average53.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt above our average
Darren Bailey
VoteHub34.0%
VoteHub
Polling average34.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg34.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average34.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Nov 24, 2025): JB Pritzker 54.0%, Darren Bailey 34.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23 | Victory Research+1For · FOX 32 Chicago | 1,208 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.23 tracked | -9.1decoupled | 54 · 34 |
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
13
Endorsements tracked
JB Pritzker11 · 46%
Darren Bailey13 · 54%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RDarren Bailey13 endorsers
Most notable · Jeanne Ives · former state representative from the 54th district (2013–2019)
Other9
Other · 9
- Aaron Del Mar
- Carrie Mendoza
- Christina Neitzke · Troike
- Darren Bailey
- DuPage County · ormer DuPage County Auditor (2008–2020)
- James Mendrick
- Rick Heidner
- Robert Renteria
- Ted Dabrowski
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative from the 54th district (2013–2019)
- Tom Morrison · former state representative from the 54th district (2011–2023)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
DJB Pritzker11 endorsers
Most notable · The Chicago Crusader
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- Cook County Democratic Party
- End Citizens United
- Equality Illinois
- Giffords
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 150 and 399
- New Trier · Democrats
- SEIU · Healthcare
Other2
Other · 2
- Christian Mitchell
- JB Pritzker · (incumbent)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Chicago Crusader
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —JB Pritzker
Receipts
$25.6M
Disburse
$15.6M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Darren Bailey
Receipts
$841.2K
Disburse
$696.7K
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 27%
Neutral 73%
27% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets27%
Neutral73%
R-leaning outlets0%
27% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has signed more than 60 bills since Friday, including new laws on rental fees, rate hikes
W
JB Pritzker zings Trump, critiques ‘complacent’ Democrats and calls for empathy in Texas convention speech – Chicago Sun-Times
C
Takeaways from Texas: JB Pritzker building state party coalitions that might prove helpful in 2028
N
Illinois Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Illinois U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
I
Lincoln Poll: Illinoisans cite high taxes and the economy as biggest concerns
C
Gov. Pritzker vows to be 'very involved' in 2028 presidential election, says Democrats have 'lost our way'
W
Presidential poll numbers show Pritzker at 2% – Center Square
T
Presidential poll numbers show Pritzker at 2%
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements27 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks