Republican primary · March 17, 2026
Illinois Governor Republican primary
Darren Bailey won the Republican primary on March 17, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Primary result · Republican primary
Official outcome · March 17, 2026 · forecast shown for reference1Darren BaileyDarren Bailey (born March 17, 1966) is an American politician who was a Republican member of the Illinois Senate for the 55th District and p…
2Ted Dabrowski
3Rick Heidner
4James Mendrick
5Moore
6Severino
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Bailey | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | Osage Research | 412 · LV | 57 | — |
| Jan 7 | Emerson College | 432 · LV | 34 | — |
| Jan 4 | Emerson College/WGN-TV | 432 · LV | 34 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetDarren Bailey · 13
RDarren Bailey13 endorsers
Most notable · Jeanne Ives · former state representative from the 54th district (2013–2019)
Other9
Other · 9
- Aaron Del Mar
- Carrie Mendoza
- Christina Neitzke · Troike
- Darren Bailey
- DuPage County · ormer DuPage County Auditor (2008–2020)
- James Mendrick
- Rick Heidner
- Robert Renteria
- Ted Dabrowski
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative from the 54th district (2013–2019)
- Tom Morrison · former state representative from the 54th district (2011–2023)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 27%
Neutral 73%
27% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets27%
Neutral73%
R-leaning outlets0%
27% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has signed more than 60 bills since Friday, including new laws on rental fees, rate hikes
W
JB Pritzker zings Trump, critiques ‘complacent’ Democrats and calls for empathy in Texas convention speech – Chicago Sun-Times
C
Takeaways from Texas: JB Pritzker building state party coalitions that might prove helpful in 2028
N
Illinois Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Illinois U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
I
Lincoln Poll: Illinoisans cite high taxes and the economy as biggest concerns
C
Gov. Pritzker vows to be 'very involved' in 2028 presidential election, says Democrats have 'lost our way'
W
Presidential poll numbers show Pritzker at 2% – Center Square
T
Presidential poll numbers show Pritzker at 2%
Page 1 of 2
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements27 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks