Races · Governor · 2026 · Texas
Governor · incumbent running
Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.9, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.4 (10th pctile) to R+13.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 0.5pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 56/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 17.5pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
56
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement87
17.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution87 / 100
Measured17.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion19
1.9pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution19 / 100
Measured1.9pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
13 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured13 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.4
80% CI: R +35.4 → R +13.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 26 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +13.5
80% CI R +15.8 → R +3.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +6.9
80% CI R +8.1 → R +5.8
CV MAE 0.91
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 32 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 10% · polls 42%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
7 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Greg Abbott
VoteHub49.1%
VoteHub
Polling average49.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.3 pt below our average
Gina Hinojosa
VoteHub42.7%
VoteHub
Polling average42.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt above our average
Pat Dixon
VoteHub0.0%
VoteHub
Polling average0.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 7 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Greg Abbott 49.1%, Gina Hinojosa 42.7%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 26 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 656 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 44 · 51 |
| Jun 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 656 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 44 · 51 |
| Jun 22 | University of TexasFor · The Texas Politics Project | 1,200 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 40 · 47 |
| Jun 20 | SoCal StrategiesFor · Internal R-aligned | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.9d lean | 42 · 54 |
| Jun 11 | University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectFor · Texas Politics Project | 1,200 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +15.8d lean | 40 · 47 |
| Jun 8 | Texas Pulse Poll | 807 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 44 · 49 |
| Jun 4 | Quantus InsightsFor · Quantus Insights | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 41 · 49 |
| Jun 3 | Quantus Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 41 · 49 |
| Jun 3 | Texas A&M University/ReconMRFor · ReconMR | 807 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 · 49 |
| May 28 | Texas Public Opinion Research+1 | 1,670 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +14.8d lean | 41 · 46 |
Endorsements · 49 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet29
20
Endorsements tracked
Gina Hinojosa29 · 59%
Greg Abbott20 · 41%
Total49
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGina Hinojosa29 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)
Elected officials16
Federal 12State 2Local 2
Elected officials · 16
- Barack Obama · 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)
- Wendy Davis · former state senator from the 10th district (2009-2015) and 2014 gubernatorial nominee
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Julie Johnson · TX-32 (2025–present)
- Lloyd Doggett · TX-37 (1995–present)
- Sylvia Garcia · TX-29 (2019–present)
- Veronica Escobar · TX-16 (2019–present)
- Vicente Gonzalez · TX-34 (2017–present)
- Beto O'Rourke · former TX-16 (2013–2019), 2018 U.S. senate nominee and 2022 gubernatorial nominee
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Colin Allred · former TX-32 (2019–2025)
- Garry Mauro · former Land Commissioner of Texas (1983-1999) and 1998 gubernatorial nominee
- James Talarico · state representative from the 50th district (2018–present) and nominee for the U.S. Senate
- Jim Hightower · former Texas Agriculture Commissioner (1983-1991)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
Newspapers6
Newspapers · 6
- Austin American-Statesman
- Dallas Morning News
- Fort Worth Star-Telegram
- Houston Chronicle
- San Antonio Express-News
- The Austin Chronicle
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
- American Federation of Teachers · achers
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus
- SEIU · Texas
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Mark White · te, son of former governor Mark White and former 2026 gubernatorial candidate
RGreg Abbott20 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Associated Builders and Contractors · of Texas
- Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas
- Dallas Police Association
- Fort Worth · Police Officers Association
- Houston · Police Officers Union
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Texas
- International Longshoremen South Atlantic & Gulf Coast District Association
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Border Patrol Council
- National Federation of Independent Business · Texas
- Teamsters · Joint Council 58 and Jount Council 80
- Texas Alliance for Life
- Turning Point Action
- UA Pipefitters · Local 211
- UA Plumbers · Local 68
- Young Conservatives of Texas
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Houston Chronicle
- San Antonio Express-News
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Riley Gaines · conservative activist
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Greg Abbott
Receipts
$45.9M
Disburse
$85.7M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
106 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles106
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.03 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.03 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 94%
6% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral94%
R-leaning outlets0%
6% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Gov. Abbott calls for banning data center development in rural Texas neighborhoods
D
Texas Governor Abbott calls for data centers to be banned in rural areas
S
A conversation with Gov. Greg Abbott
H
Abbott taps a former GOP primary rival as Texas' new comptroller. What happened between the two?
K
Race for Texas governor could be headed to the debate stage
G
Governor Abbott Celebrates Caterpillar’s $5 Million Investment In Texas’ Manufacturing Workforce
F
Huffines appointed new Texas comptroller by Gov. Abbott
T
Rep. Nate Schatzline resigns from Texas House to lead “election integrity” policy in Gov. Abbott’s office
E
Gov. Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa's war chest in the Texas governor race
T
Governor Abbott Appoints Don Huffines As Comptroller Of Public Accounts
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified25 / 26deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements53 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks