Races · Governor · 2026 · TX

Governor · open seat

Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott

← TN Governor TX Governor →

Likely R R +7.4 · 176 days to election · 8 polls · 4 markets Last poll 20d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 100% R · market gap 13pp

likely-r · low-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-medium

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +12.2

80% CI: R +16.6 → R +7.7 · win prob 0%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	8
Days to election	181
Residual σ	3.44pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +13.4

80% CI R +15.7 → R +9.3

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +7.4

80% CI R +8.9 → R +6.0

CV MAE 1.12

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +12.2

80% CI R +16.6 → R +7.7

CV MAE 3.44

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 8 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:8 of 8 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/20/2026	Slingshot Strategies	1.00	L	1018	±3.3	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Greg Abbott 48.0 · Gina Hinojosa 43.0	poll arch
4/20/2026	University of Texas/Texas Politics Project	1.00	—	1200	±2.8	RV	no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Greg Abbott 44.0 · Gina Hinojosa 38.0	poll arch
2/22/2026	UT Tyler	1.00	—	1117	±3.1	RV	no scored polls77d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 77d old Poll was fielded 77 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Greg Abbott 49.0 · Gina Hinojosa 41.0	poll arch
2/22/2026	UT Tyler	1.00	—	1117	±3.1	RV	no scored polls77d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 77d old Poll was fielded 77 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Greg Abbott 51.0 · Chris Bell 39.0	poll arch
2/16/2026	University of Texas/Texas Politics Project	1.00	—	1300	±5.1	RV	no scored polls83d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 83d old Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Greg Abbott 45.0 · Gina Hinojosa 35.0	poll arch
2/3/2026	GBAO	1.00	L	1000	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 96d old Poll was fielded 96 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Greg Abbott 46.0 · Gina Hinojosa 43.0	poll arch
1/31/2026	University of Houston/YouGov	1.00	—	1502	±2.5	LV	no scored polls99d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 99d old Poll was fielded 99 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=1,502 Sample size of 1,502 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Greg Abbott 49.0 · Gina Hinojosa 42.0	poll arch
1/12/2026	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1165	±2.8	RV	118d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 118d old Poll was fielded 118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Greg Abbott 50.0 · Gina Hinojosa 42.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 20 total

Greg Abbott (R)

20 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 7 ]

Newspapers (2)

Houston Chronicle — [ 22 ]
San Antonio Express-News — [ 23 ]

Organizations / unions (9)

Dallas Police Association — [ 12 ]
Fort Worth — Police Officers Association [ 12 ]
Houston — Police Officers Union [ 11 ]
International Brotherhood of Teamsters — Texas [ 14 ]
International Longshoremen South Atlantic & Gulf Coast District Association — [ 14 ]
National Border Patrol Council — [ 13 ]
National Federation of Independent Business — Texas [ 16 ]
Teamsters — Joint Council 58 and Jount Council 80 [ 15 ]
Texas Alliance for Life — [ 19 ]

Other (8)

Associated Builders and Contractors — of Texas [ 9 ]
Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas — [ 10 ]
NRA Political Victory Fund — [ 17 ] [ 18 ]
Riley Gaines — conservative activist [ 8 ]
Turning Point Action — [ 20 ]
UA Pipefitters — Local 211 [ 14 ]
UA Plumbers — Local 68 [ 14 ]
Young Conservatives of Texas — [ 21 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Sep 11	-7.4	-18.0	+10.6
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 28	-7.4	-18.0	+10.6
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Sep 4	-7.4	-18.0	+10.6

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 weeks ago (4/20/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)