Races · Governor · 2026 · Tennessee
Governor · open seat
Jerri Green vs Marsha Blackburn
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 8%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.7 (10th pctile) to R+16.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.5% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement67
13.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution67 / 100
Measured13.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.7
80% CI: R +38.7 → R +16.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.5
80% CI R +38.2 → R +23.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +21.1
80% CI R +23.1 → R +19.1
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
R +13.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 20 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 8% · polls 27%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Apr 27, 2026 · latest Targoz Market Research
Marsha Blackburn
VoteHub51.0%
VoteHub
Polling average51.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg50.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average50.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.3 pt above our average
Jerri Green
VoteHub27.0%
VoteHub
Polling average27.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg27.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average27.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.3 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Apr 27, 2026): Marsha Blackburn 51.0%, Jerri Green 27.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 26 | Beacon Poll | 1,157 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 27 · 51 |
| Apr 26, 26 | Targoz Market ResearchFor · Beacon TennSight Poll | 1,200 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.712 tracked | +4.3noisy | 27 · 51 |
| Aug 7, 25 | Quantus Insights | 600 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 28 · 49 |
| Aug 6, 25 | Quantus Insights+2For · Internal R-aligned | 600 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.5d lean | 28 · 49 |
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
14
Endorsements tracked
Jerri Green1 · 7%
Marsha Blackburn14 · 93%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMarsha Blackburn14 endorsers
Most notable · Jack Johnson · majority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2019–present) from the 27th district (2007–present)
Elected officials11
Federal 3State 4Local 2
Elected officials · 11
- Jack Johnson · majority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2019–present) from the 27th district (2007–present)
- William Lamberth · majority leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives (2019–present) from the 44th district (2013–present)
- Ken Yager · state senator from the 12th district (2009–present)
- Chuck Fleischmann · TN-03 (2011–present)
- Tim Burchett · TN-02 (2019–present)
- Aron Maberry · state representative from the 68th district (2025–present)
- Carroll County · mayor of Carroll County (2018–present)
- Glenn Jacobs · mayor of Knox County (2018–present)
- Jake McCalmon · state representative from the 63rd district (2023–present)
- Jimmy Duncan · former TN-02 (1988–2019)
- Lee Reeves · state representative from the 65th district (2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Americans For Prosperity
- Club for Growth
- Turning Point Action
DJerri Green1 endorser
Most notable · Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former minority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2015–2018) from the 29th district (2015–2018)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 1
- Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former minority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2015–2018) from the 29th district (2015–2018)
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks