Republican primary · August 6, 2026
Tennessee Governor Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
73
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (13.5pp).
Forecast CI width45
13.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution45 / 100
Measured13.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Marsha BlackburnMary Marsha Blackburn (née Wedgeworth ; born June 6, 1952) is an American politician and businesswoman serving as the senior United States s…
2John Rose
3Monty Fritts
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 17 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Blackburn | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 26 | Beacon Poll | 529 · RV | 63 | — |
| Apr 26, 26 | Targoz Market Research | 529 · LV | 63 | — |
| Mar 25, 26 | TNSUCCESS.ORG | 300 · LV | 56 | — |
| Mar 23, 26 | VictoryPhones | 300 · LV | 56 | — |
| Mar 22, 26 | Cygnal | 500 · LV | 58 | — |
| Mar 16, 26 | Cygnal | 500 · LV | 58 | — |
| Feb 9, 26 | TNSUCCESS.ORG | 500 · LV | 61 | — |
| Feb 7, 26 | VictoryPhones | — · unknown | 61 | — |
| Feb 1, 26 | Beacon Poll | 559 · RV | 56 | — |
| Jan 17, 26 | Targoz Market Research | 559 · LV | 56 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMarsha Blackburn · 14
RMarsha Blackburn14 endorsers
Most notable · Jack Johnson · majority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2019–present) from the 27th district (2007–present)
Elected officials11
Federal 3State 4Local 2
Elected officials · 11
- Jack Johnson · majority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2019–present) from the 27th district (2007–present)
- William Lamberth · majority leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives (2019–present) from the 44th district (2013–present)
- Ken Yager · state senator from the 12th district (2009–present)
- Chuck Fleischmann · TN-03 (2011–present)
- Tim Burchett · TN-02 (2019–present)
- Aron Maberry · state representative from the 68th district (2025–present)
- Carroll County · mayor of Carroll County (2018–present)
- Glenn Jacobs · mayor of Knox County (2018–present)
- Jake McCalmon · state representative from the 63rd district (2023–present)
- Jimmy Duncan · former TN-02 (1988–2019)
- Lee Reeves · state representative from the 65th district (2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Americans For Prosperity
- Club for Growth
- Turning Point Action
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 17deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks