Democratic primary · August 6, 2026
Tennessee Governor Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (26.8pp).
Forecast CI width89
26.8pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution89 / 100
Measured26.8pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Jerri GreenJerri Green is a member of the Memphis City Council in Tennessee, representing District 2 . She assumed office on January 1, 2024. Her curre…
2Kevin Lee McCants
3Adam Kurtz
4Carnita Atwater
5Tim Cyr
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Green | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6 | Beacon Poll | 400 · RV | 14 | — |
| Apr 26 | Targoz Market Research | 400 · LV | 14 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetJerri Green · 1
DJerri Green1 endorser
Most notable · Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former minority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2015–2018) from the 29th district (2015–2018)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 1
- Lee Harris · mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former minority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2015–2018) from the 29th district (2015–2018)
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks