Awaiting decisionExecutive powerNo. 24-1287
Trump v. Barbara
Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. Barbara, et al. (consolidated, 4 challenges)
Argued Apr 1, 2026Lower 9th Cir. (+3 others)
Question presented
Does the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause permit an executive order denying birthright citizenship to children of unlawfully-present or temporary-visa parents?
Predicted vote · estimated
7–2 strike (est.).
Estimated from how each justice engaged at oral argument and our case model. These are projections — not leaks, and the Court routinely confounds them.
JA
Jackson
Strike
SO
Sotomayor
Strike
KA
Kagan
Strike
C
Roberts
Strike
KA
Kavanaugh
Strike
BA
Barrett
Strike
GO
Gorsuch
~ Lean strike
AL
Alito
Uphold
TH
Thomas
Uphold
The read from oral argument
Where each justice tipped their hand.
Jackson leaned against
Pressed the government on the 1898 Wong Kim Ark precedent.
Sotomayor leaned against
Called the reading “a breathtaking departure from text and history.”
Kagan leaned against
Skeptical the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction” bears the weight claimed.
Roberts leaned against
Noted the long settled understanding; cautious on remedy and scope.
Barrett leaned against
Probed both sides; weighed the universal-injunction question separately.
Kavanaugh leaned against
Focused on whether relief should be class-wide or party-specific.
Gorsuch unclear
Engaged the original-meaning argument but non-committal.
Alito leaned for
Most receptive to the government’s jurisdiction theory.
Thomas leaned for
Signaled sympathy for revisiting the modern reading.
Prediction markets on this case
All prediction markets →What the money says.
| Contract | Platform | Volume | 7d | Trend | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court strikes the birthright-citizenship order | POLY | $214k | +3¢ | 82¢ | |
| Order upheld in whole or part | KAL | $71k | -3¢ | 18¢ | |
| Opinion released on or before Jun 30 | POLY | $48k | +2¢ | 91¢ |
INFORMATIONAL ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · CASE-OUTCOME MARKETS CAN BE THIN AND RESOLVE ON FUZZY CONTRACT WORDING.
Public opinion · on the likely ruling
A familiar partisan split.
% who favor / oppose the Court UPHOLDING the order
ALL ADULTS
31% FAVOR64% OPPOSE
Republicans5838
Independents2668
Democrats890
Case timeline
Jan 20, 2025
Executive order signed
Inauguration-day order denies birthright citizenship to children of unlawfully-present or temporary-visa parents.
Feb–Mar 2025
Blocked nationwide
District courts in 4 circuits enjoin the order; challenges consolidated.
Jan 2026
Cert granted, expedited
Court takes the case on an accelerated schedule.
Apr 1, 2026
Argued
President Trump attends — the first sitting president at a SCOTUS argument. S.G. Sauer defends the order.
by Jun 30, 2026
Decision expected
One of the final opinions of the term.
Awaiting decisionExecutive power
Trump v. Barbara
NO. 24-1287 · ARGUED Apr 1, 2026
MARKET · UPHELD
18¢-3¢ 7d
PREDICTED
7–2 strike (est.)
31% FAVOR64% OPPOSE
Question presented
Does the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause permit an executive order denying birthright citizenship to children of unlawfully-present or temporary-visa parents?
The read from argument
Jackson
Pressed the government on the 1898 Wong Kim Ark precedent.
Sotomayor
Called the reading “a breathtaking departure from text and history.”
Kagan
Skeptical the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction” bears the weight claimed.
Roberts
Noted the long settled understanding; cautious on remedy and scope.
Barrett
Probed both sides; weighed the universal-injunction question separately.
Kavanaugh
Focused on whether relief should be class-wide or party-specific.
Gorsuch
Engaged the original-meaning argument but non-committal.
Alito
Most receptive to the government’s jurisdiction theory.
Thomas
Signaled sympathy for revisiting the modern reading.
Markets on this case
POLY82¢
Court strikes the birthright-citizenship order
+3¢ 7d · $214k
KAL18¢
Order upheld in whole or part
-3¢ 7d · $71k
POLY91¢
Opinion released on or before Jun 30
+2¢ 7d · $48k
What’s at stake
A ruling for the government would end the long-standing reading of the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause and strip automatic citizenship from an estimated 150,000+ children born each year to unlawfully-present or temporary-visa parents.