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Pollster · 56 of 1769

EPIC-MRA

GRADE AWEIGHT TIER T1NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed
Polls scored
8
Mean error
2.2 pt
Signed bias
D+0.61
Aggregation weight
1.50

Pollster vs prediction market

From 103 race-polls · 6 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
68.8%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+1.3 pt
Net direction markets moved toward EPIC-MRA's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
64
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight75
Verification rate28
Sample size median61
Citation rate63
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment94
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 14 graded races, EPIC-MRA's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
5.8pp
N graded
14
Recent activity
Total all time
103
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 11/13/2025 (235d ago)· status dormant

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