Pollster · 56 of 1769
EPIC-MRA
Polls scored
8
Mean error
2.2 pt
Signed bias
D+0.61
Aggregation weight
1.50
Pollster vs prediction market
From 103 race-polls · 6 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
68.8%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+1.3 pt
Net direction markets moved toward EPIC-MRA's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components64
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 14 graded races, EPIC-MRA's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
5.8pp
N graded
14
Recent activity
Total all time
103
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Recent polls
- 11/13/2025Michigan · Governor · 2026Benson 33.0 · Duggan 20.0 · James 34.0
- 11/13/2025Michigan · Senate · 2026Stevens 44.0 · Rogers 42.0
- 11/13/2025Michigan · Senate · 2026McMorrow 43.0 · Rogers 42.0
- 11/10/2025Michigan · Governor · 2026Jocelyn Benson 33.0 · John James 34.0 · Mike Duggan 20.0
- 11/10/2025Michigan · Senate · 2026Haley Stevens 44.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0
- 11/10/2025Michigan · Senate · 2026Mallory McMorrow 43.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0
- 2/7/2025Michigan · Governor · 2026Jocelyn Benson 31.0 · Dick DeVos 31.0 · Mike Duggan 23.0
- 2/7/2025Michigan · Senate · 2026Pete Buttigieg 41.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0
- 10/27/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0
- 8/25/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0