Races · Senate · 2024 · MI
Senate · class II · open seat

Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers

← ME Senate MN Senate →
Tossup — · 124 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 124 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 124 results

124 of 124 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1113—LV
552d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
11/3/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
11/3/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)858—RV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 49.0pollarch
11/3/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1079—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt553d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt554d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1198—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)790—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
11/2/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)585—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)998—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
11/2/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)713—LV
4 scored polls554d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
11/1/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1112—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 555d old
    Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
10/31/2024OnMessage, Inc. *3.36neutral(R+0.2)800—LV
556d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.36
    Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/31/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)940—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt556d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
10/31/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt556d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 49.0pollarch
10/30/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1214—LV
bias D+2.4pt557d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 52.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1136—LV
557d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024Echleon Insights1.68—(R+0.9)600—LV
3 scored polls557d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/29/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)——unknown
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 49.0pollarch
10/29/2024Tarrance Group1.61—(D+0.9)620—LV
3 scored polls558d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 50.0pollarch
10/29/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)983—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
10/28/2024EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
559d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
10/28/2024The Washington Post1.92—(D+2.1)1003—LV
4 scored polls559d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.92
    Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
10/28/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)988—LV
bias D+2.6pt559d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
10/28/2024CNN/SSRS1.00—(D+4.4)726—LV
historical bias D+4.4pt559d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.4pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
10/27/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt560d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
10/27/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
560d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/27/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
560d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
10/27/2024Susquehanna Polling and Research1.73R(R+1.5)400—LV
3 scored polls560d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
10/26/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)796—RV
561d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
10/24/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
563d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 563d old
    Poll was fielded 563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
10/24/2024UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)600—LV
563d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 563d old
    Poll was fielded 563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
10/21/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1136—LV
566d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 566d old
    Poll was fielded 566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 52.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
10/20/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1090—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt567d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
10/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)1008—LV
569d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 569d old
    Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
10/17/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1529—LV
570d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,529
    Sample size of 1,529 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
10/17/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)600—LV
3 scored polls570d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
10/16/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)789—LV
571d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 571d old
    Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
10/15/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)496—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 572d old
    Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
10/14/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)589—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
10/14/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)682—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 40.0pollarch
10/13/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R692—LV
no scored polls574d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 574d old
    Poll was fielded 574 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
10/11/2024Marketing Resource Group1.00—600—LV
no scored polls576d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 576d old
    Poll was fielded 576 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
10/9/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt578d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 578d old
    Poll was fielded 578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
10/8/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)950—LV
579d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
10/8/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls579d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
10/7/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
10/7/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1007—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 48.0pollarch
10/4/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
583d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 583d old
    Poll was fielded 583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
10/2/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)839—LV
585d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 585d old
    Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
9/30/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)709—LV
587d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 587d old
    Poll was fielded 587 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
9/30/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1086—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt587d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 587d old
    Poll was fielded 587 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
9/27/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)789—LV
590d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 590d old
    Poll was fielded 590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
9/26/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)688—LV
591d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 591d old
    Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
9/25/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)918—LV
592d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 49.0pollarch
9/25/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L416—LV
no scored polls592d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
9/20/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)800—LV
597d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
9/19/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)993—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
9/19/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
9/19/2024UMass/YouGov1.00—650—LV
no scored polls598d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 34.0pollarch
9/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)875—LV
599d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
9/18/2024Tarrance Group1.61—(D+0.9)607—LV
3 scored polls599d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: National Review
    Commissioned by National Review, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
9/18/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1297—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
9/17/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1282—RV
bias D+2.4pt600d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 600d old
    Poll was fielded 600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
9/16/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)905—LV
601d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
9/9/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)556—LV
608d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 608d old
    Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
9/8/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1368—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 40.0pollarch
9/6/2024co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)931—LV
historical bias R+5.4pt611d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 39.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
9/6/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1073—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt611d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
9/5/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt612d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 612d old
    Poll was fielded 612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 53.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0pollarch
9/3/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)1000—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt614d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 614d old
    Poll was fielded 614 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
9/1/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
616d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 616d old
    Poll was fielded 616 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
8/30/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1089—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt618d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 618d old
    Poll was fielded 618 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 45.0pollarch
8/29/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
619d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 35.0pollarch
8/29/2024CNN/SRSS1.00—708—LV
no scored polls619d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CNN
    Commissioned by CNN, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
8/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)800—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
8/26/2024EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—RV
622d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 622d old
    Poll was fielded 622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
8/22/2024TIPP Insights1.00R1001—RV
no scored polls626d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 626d old
    Poll was fielded 626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 35.0pollarch
8/21/2024Fabrizio Ward1.00—400—LV
no scored polls627d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 627d old
    Poll was fielded 627 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 43.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
8/11/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)500—RV
3 scored polls637d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 637d old
    Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
8/11/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—RV
no scored polls637d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 637d old
    Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 44.0pollarch
8/8/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)619—RV
640d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 640d old
    Poll was fielded 640 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
8/2/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L406—LV
no scored polls646d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 646d old
    Poll was fielded 646 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 50.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
7/24/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
655d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
7/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1012—RV
bias D+2.6pt655d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0pollarch
7/23/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)800—RV
656d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 656d old
    Poll was fielded 656 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
7/18/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)650—RV
661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+4
  • 661d old
    Poll was fielded 661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
7/17/2024EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—RV
662d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 662d old
    Poll was fielded 662 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 43.0 · Mike Rogers 40.0pollarch
7/12/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)568—RV
667d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · Mike Rogers 35.0pollarch
7/12/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)1000—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt667d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
7/8/2024Expedition Strategies1.00L275—LV
no scored pollsn=275+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=275
    Sample size of 275 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.9pt — wider than typical.
  • 671d old
    Poll was fielded 671 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elissa Slotkin 46.0 · Mike Rogers 40.0pollarch
7/1/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)584—LV
678d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 678d old
    Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 43.0pollarch
6/26/2024EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
683d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 683d old
    Poll was fielded 683 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 42.0pollarch
6/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
691d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 691d old
    Poll was fielded 691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 43.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
6/3/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)697—LV
flagged on verification706d old+3
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 706d old
    Poll was fielded 706 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 36.0 · Mike Rogers 33.0pollarch
5/31/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)723—RV
4 scored polls709d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 709d old
    Poll was fielded 709 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Mike Rogers 41.0pollarch
5/21/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)697—LV
719d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 719d old
    Poll was fielded 719 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 40.0 · Mike Rogers 36.0pollarch
5/19/2024KAConsulting1.08R(R+3.6)600—RV
721d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 721d old
    Poll was fielded 721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Elissa Slotkin 43.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
4/29/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Mike Rogers 40.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 40.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Nasser Beydoun 36.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Hill Harper 36.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Justin Amash 34.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Peter Meijer 34.0pollarch
4/25/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Sandy Pensler 34.0pollarch
3/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
783d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 783d old
    Poll was fielded 783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Mike Rogers 39.0pollarch
3/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
783d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 783d old
    Poll was fielded 783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 43.0 · Justin Amash 35.0pollarch
3/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
783d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 783d old
    Poll was fielded 783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Peter Meijer 34.0pollarch
3/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
783d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 783d old
    Poll was fielded 783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Sandy Pensler 37.0pollarch
3/16/2024Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)627—LV
785d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 785d old
    Poll was fielded 785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 37.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
2/18/2024EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
812d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 812d old
    Poll was fielded 812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 39.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
1/6/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
855d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 855d old
    Poll was fielded 855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 38.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
1/6/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
855d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 855d old
    Poll was fielded 855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 36.0 · James Craig 38.0pollarch
1/6/2024Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600—LV
855d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 855d old
    Poll was fielded 855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Detroit News
    Commissioned by The Detroit News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 36.0 · Peter Meijer 36.0pollarch
11/16/2023EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
906d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 906d old
    Poll was fielded 906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 39.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
11/16/2023EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
906d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 906d old
    Poll was fielded 906 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 40.0 · James Craig 38.0pollarch
8/11/2023EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
1003d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1003d old
    Poll was fielded 1003 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Mike Rogers 37.0pollarch
8/2/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1121—LV
1012d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1012d old
    Poll was fielded 1012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
8/2/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1121—LV
1012d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1012d old
    Poll was fielded 1012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · James Craig 38.0pollarch
8/2/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1121—LV
1012d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1012d old
    Poll was fielded 1012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 42.0 · Peter Meijer 36.0pollarch
8/2/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1121—LV
1012d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1012d old
    Poll was fielded 1012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Nikki Snyder 36.0pollarch
8/2/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1121—LV
1012d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1012d old
    Poll was fielded 1012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Elissa Slotkin 45.0 · John Tuttle 35.0pollarch
7/13/2023Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)639—LV
1032d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1032d old
    Poll was fielded 1032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 44.0 · Mike Rogers 38.0pollarch
7/13/2023Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)639—LV
flagged on verification1032d old+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 1032d old
    Poll was fielded 1032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Elissa Slotkin 41.0 · Peter Meijer 28.0pollarch
6/14/2023EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600—LV
1061d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1061d old
    Poll was fielded 1061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Elissa Slotkin 40.0 · James Craig 39.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-04
Total IE spending
$71.6M
For candidates
$30.5M
Against candidates
$41.0M
Latest filing: 12/4/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Mike Rogers (R)
$26.7M for · $37.1M against
Cash on hand
$255K
Total raised (cycle)
$13.2M
Total spent
$13.0M
Debts
$30K
Source: FEC
Elissa Slotkin (D)
$2.6M for · $4.0M against
Cash on hand
$283K
Total raised (cycle)
$51.9M
Total spent
$51.7M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Justin Amash (R)
$1.2M for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3K
Total raised (cycle)
$915K
Total spent
$1.3M
Debts
$4K
Source: FEC
Hill Harper (D)
$55K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$3.1M
Total spent
$3.1M
Debts
$790K
Source: FEC
Sandy Pensler (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$5.0M
Total spent
$5.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Peter Meijer (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$16K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.1M
Total spent
$1.1M
Debts
$515K
Source: FEC
Nasser Beydoun (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$16K
Total raised (cycle)
$981K
Total spent
$967K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
James Craig (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$137K
Total spent
$137K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Lean D Oct 9 — +3.5 —
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 8 — 0.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Lean D Oct 9 — +3.5 —
Elections Daily Lean D Oct 9 — +3.5 —
538 Likely D Oct 23 — +9.0 —
Inside Elections Tilt D Sep 26 — +1.3 —
RealClearPolitics Tossup Oct 9 — 0.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Sep 25 — +3.5 —
Split Ticket Lean D Oct 23 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (4 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tossup via pvi held 565d
  • 10/15/2024 Lean D D+3.9 via polls held 69d
  • 8/7/2024 Likely D D+5.1 via polls held 30d
  • 7/8/2024 Lean D D+3.3 via polls