Races · Senate · 2024 · Michigan Senate · class I · open seat
Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers Lean D D +3.5 forecast · 107 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
72% Slotkin (D)
28% Rogers (R)
Win probability
Elissa Slotkin 72% (D)
Mike Rogers 28% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate D +3.5
80% CI R+8.5 → D+15.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +3.5 · 80% CI R+8.5 → D+15.5
Actual result D+0.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 72 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tossup · model 72% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.5 (10th pctile) to D+15.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 72% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Elissa Slotkin
Elissa Slotkin ( Democratic Party ) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Michigan. She assumed office on January 3, 2025. Her current term en…
72%win R Michael J. Rogers (born June 2, 1963) is an American law enforcement officer and politician who served as the U.S. representative for Michig…
28%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.5
80% CI: R +8.5 → D +15.5 · win prob 72%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 107 Days to election passed Actual result D+0.3 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 107 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 3, 24 AtlasIntel +1 1,113 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 49 · 48 Nov 2, 24 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 50 · 44 Nov 2, 24 Patriot Polling 858 · RV R-LEAN R +1.4 10 tracked -3.2 r lean 50 · 49 Nov 2, 24 The Trafalgar Group 1,079 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 47 · 47 Nov 1, 24 InsiderAdvantage +1 800 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 48 Nov 1, 24 AtlasIntel +1 1,198 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 49 · 47 Nov 1, 24 Emerson College +1 790 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 49 · 45 Nov 1, 24 Mitchell Research +2 585 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 50 · 48 Nov 1, 24 New York Times/Siena College +1 998 · LV D-LEAN D +4.1 6 tracked +2.0 aligned 48 · 46 Nov 1, 24 Mainstreet Research/FAU +1 713 · LV NEUTRAL D +4.7 4 tracked +0.6 aligned 47 · 43 Oct 31, 24 Morning Consult +1 1,112 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 49 · 41 Oct 30, 24 OnMessage Inc. +1 800 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 5 tracked -4.1 r lean 47 · 46 Oct 30, 24 YouGov 940 · LV D-LEAN D +3.4 23 tracked +2.2 d lean 51 · 42 Oct 30, 24 ActiVote +1 400 · LV D-LEAN D +3.9 26 tracked +1.0 aligned 51 · 49 Oct 29, 24 Marist College +1 1,214 · LV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 52 · 46 Oct 29, 24 AtlasIntel +1 1,136 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 50 · 46 Oct 29, 24 Echleon Insights 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.9 3 tracked — 48 · 46 Oct 28, 24 Mitchell Research +2 — · unknown NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 47 · 49 Oct 28, 24 Tarrance Group 620 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.7 8 tracked -3.6 r lean 48 · 50 Oct 28, 24 AtlasIntel +1 983 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 49 · 47 Oct 27, 24 EPIC-MRA +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 47 · 42 Oct 27, 24 The Washington Post 1,003 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 5 tracked +0.9 aligned 48 · 45 Oct 27, 24 Fox News 988 · LV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 51 · 47 Oct 27, 24 CNN/SSRS 726 · LV D-LEAN D +4.4 17 tracked +3.0 d lean 48 · 42 Oct 26, 24 InsiderAdvantage +1 800 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 48 Oct 26, 24 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 48 · 46 Oct 26, 24 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 45 Oct 26, 24 Susquehanna Polling and Research 400 · LV R-LEAN R +1.5 3 tracked +2.4 d lean 48 · 47 Oct 25, 24 Patriot Polling 796 · RV R-LEAN R +1.4 10 tracked -3.2 r lean 51 · 48 Oct 23, 24 Glengariff Group +1 600 · LV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 46 · 42 Oct 23, 24 UMass Lowell/YouGov 600 · LV D-LEAN D +3.4 6 tracked +3.0 d lean 48 · 39 Oct 20, 24 Quinnipiac University +1 1,136 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 52 · 44 Oct 19, 24 The Trafalgar Group 1,090 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 45 Oct 17, 24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,008 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 45 · 38 Oct 16, 24 AtlasIntel +2 1,529 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 48 · 48 Oct 16, 24 The Bullfinch Group +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +6.3 3 tracked +5.9 d lean 51 · 42 Oct 15, 24 RMG Research 789 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 48 · 43 Oct 14, 24 Morning Consult +1 496 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 48 · 41 Oct 13, 24 Mitchell Research +2 589 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 47 · 43 Oct 13, 24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 682 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 44 · 40 Oct 12, 24 SoCal Strategies 692 · LV NEUTRAL — +2.9 d lean 48 · 45 Oct 10, 24 Marketing Resource Group +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 41 Oct 8, 24 InsiderAdvantage +1 800 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 46 · 45 Oct 7, 24 Emerson College +1 950 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 49 · 44 Oct 7, 24 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 600 · LV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 49 · 46 Oct 6, 24 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 46 · 41 Oct 6, 24 Quinnipiac University +1 1,007 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 48 · 48 Oct 3, 24 Glengariff Group +1 600 · LV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 47 · 43 Oct 1, 24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 839 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 45 · 39 Sep 29, 24 Mitchell Research +2 709 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 49 · 44 Sep 29, 24 The Trafalgar Group 1,086 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 47 · 47 Sep 26, 24 RMG Research 789 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 49 · 43 Sep 25, 24 New York Times/Siena College +1 688 · LV D-LEAN D +4.1 6 tracked +2.0 aligned 47 · 42 Sep 24, 24 AtlasIntel +1 918 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.3 30 tracked -4.0 r lean 44 · 49 Sep 24, 24 BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group +1 416 · LV D-LEAN — +5.8 decoupled 47 · 44 Sep 19, 24 Remington Research Group +1 800 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 50 · 43 Sep 18, 24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 993 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 46 · 37 Sep 18, 24 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 43 Sep 18, 24 UMass/YouGov 650 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 34 Sep 17, 24 Emerson College +1 875 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 42 Sep 17, 24 Tarrance Group 607 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.7 8 tracked -3.6 r lean 49 · 47 Sep 17, 24 Morning Consult +1 1,297 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 51 · 37 Sep 16, 24 Marist College +1 1,282 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 51 · 45 Sep 15, 24 Quinnipiac University +1 905 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.4 54 tracked +1.1 aligned 51 · 46 Sep 8, 24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 556 · LV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 44 · 39 Sep 7, 24 Morning Consult +1 1,368 · LV D-LEAN D +5.2 30 tracked +1.8 aligned 49 · 40 Sep 5, 24 co/efficient 931 · LV R-LEAN R +5.4 13 tracked -3.4 r lean 39 · 38 Sep 5, 24 CBS News/YouGov +2 1,073 · LV D-LEAN D +3.4 16 tracked +1.4 aligned 48 · 41 Sep 4, 24 ActiVote +1 400 · LV D-LEAN D +3.9 26 tracked +1.0 aligned 53 · 47 Sep 2, 24 YouGov 1,000 · RV D-LEAN D +3.4 23 tracked +2.2 d lean 50 · 39 Aug 31, 24 Cygnal 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 43 Aug 29, 24 The Trafalgar Group 1,089 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 49 · 45 Aug 28, 24 Glengariff Group 600 · LV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 44 · 35 Aug 28, 24 CNN/SRSS +1 708 · LV NEUTRAL — +2.1 d lean 47 · 41 Aug 27, 24 Emerson College +1 800 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 41 Aug 25, 24 EPIC-MRA 600 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 46 · 42 Aug 21, 24 TIPP Insights +1 1,001 · RV NEUTRAL — +2.7 decoupled 47 · 35 Aug 20, 24 Fabrizio Ward 400 · LV NEUTRAL — — 43 · 43 Aug 10, 24 The Bullfinch Group +1 500 · RV NEUTRAL D +6.3 3 tracked +5.9 d lean 48 · 38 Aug 10, 24 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 600 · RV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 47 · 44 Aug 7, 24 New York Times/Siena College +1 619 · RV D-LEAN D +4.1 6 tracked +2.0 aligned 42 · 41 Aug 1, 24 BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group +1 406 · LV D-LEAN — +5.8 decoupled 50 · 42 Jul 23, 24 Glengariff Group 600 · LV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 46 · 41 Jul 23, 24 Fox News 1,012 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 51 · 46 Jul 22, 24 Emerson College +2 800 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 41 Jul 17, 24 Public Policy Polling +2 650 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 46 · 38 Jul 16, 24 EPIC-MRA +1 600 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 43 · 40 Jul 11, 24 Public Policy Polling +1 568 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 45 · 35 Jul 11, 24 YouGov 1,000 · RV D-LEAN D +3.4 23 tracked +2.2 d lean 48 · 39 Jul 7, 24 Expedition Strategies +1 275 · LV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 40 Jun 30, 24 Remington Research Group +1 584 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 47 · 43 Jun 25, 24 EPIC-MRA +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 44 · 42 Jun 17, 24 Emerson College +2 1,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 39 Jun 2, 24 Mitchell Research +2 697 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 36 · 33 May 30, 24 Mainstreet Research/FAU +1 723 · RV NEUTRAL D +4.7 4 tracked +0.6 aligned 41 · 41 May 20, 24 Mitchell Research +2 697 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 40 · 36 May 18, 24 KAConsulting 600 · RV R-LEAN R +3.6 8 tracked -2.3 r lean 43 · 37 Apr 28, 24 Emerson College +2 1,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 42 · 40 Apr 24, 24 Glengariff Group +1 600 · RV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 40 · 37 Mar 17, 24 Emerson College +1 1,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 41 · 39 Mar 15, 24 Mitchell Research +1 627 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 37 · 37 Feb 17, 24 EPIC-MRA +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 39 · 38 Jan 5, 24 Glengariff Group +1 600 · LV D-LEAN D +4.6 5 tracked +1.5 aligned 38 · 37 Nov 15, 23 EPIC-MRA +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 39 · 37 Aug 10, 23 EPIC-MRA 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.8 9 tracked +0.3 aligned 42 · 37 Aug 1, 23 Emerson College +1 1,121 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 38 Jul 12, 23 Mitchell Research +1 639 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 17 tracked +0.6 decoupled 44 · 38
Endorsements · 0 total Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet D Elissa Slotkin 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
R Mike Rogers 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-04 Top industries
Securities & investment $40.5K
Securities & investment · $40.5K
Top contributors
RDV CORP $52.8K
BLACKSTONE $40.5K
PARADIGM $33.3K
LACKS ENTERPRISES $23.1K
REYES HOLDING LLC $19.8K
Top industries
Education $390.1K
Education · $390.1K
University of Michigan · $184.0K Michigan State University · $150.2K Harvard University · $29.8K Columbia University · $26.2K Internet $88.7K
Internet · $88.7K
Google LLC · $59.8K Meta Platforms INC · $29.0K Computers / electronics $33.0K
Computers / electronics · $33.0K
Govt employees $26.7K
Govt employees · $26.7K
State of Michigan · $26.7K Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN $184.0K
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY $150.2K
GOOGLE LLC $59.8K
WILMER CUTLER PICKERING HALE AND DORR $43.6K
APPLE INC $33.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports For / against split
For Slotkin $2.6M
Against Rogers $37.1M
Against Slotkin $4.0M
For Rogers $26.7M
Spender Side Amount Share Target WINSENATE super pac · boosts D
Spent · $30.4M Direction · against Mike Rogers Share of IE · 43% D $30.4M 43% against Mike Rogers GLCF, INC. super pac · boosts R
Spent · $15.0M Direction · for Mike Rogers Share of IE · 21% R $15.0M 21% for Mike Rogers AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
Spent · $14.2M Direction · for Mike Rogers Share of IE · 20% R $14.2M 20% for Mike Rogers LCV VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
Spent · $4.6M Direction · against Mike Rogers Share of IE · 6% D $4.6M 6% against Mike Rogers DSCC party · boosts D
Spent · $2.0M Direction · against Mike Rogers Share of IE · 3% D $2.0M 3% against Mike Rogers FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
Spent · $1.5M Direction · for Elissa Slotkin Share of IE · 2% D $1.5M 2% for Elissa Slotkin RED SENATE super pac · boosts R
Spent · $86.1K Direction · against Elissa Slotkin Share of IE · 0% R $86.1K 0% against Elissa Slotkin
Editorial ratings · 9 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Lean D 5 Lean D · 5 raters
CNalysis · Oct 8 Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Oct 8 Elections Daily · Oct 8 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 24 Split Ticket · Oct 22 Tilt D 1 Tilt D · 1 rater
Inside Elections · Sep 25 Tossup 2 Tossup · 2 raters
The Cook Political Report · Oct 7 RealClearPolitics · Oct 8 The Cook Political Report
Tossup Oct 7
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Lean D Oct 8
Elections Daily
Lean D Oct 8
Inside Elections
Tilt D Sep 25
RealClearPolitics
Tossup Oct 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D Sep 24
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026 Lean D model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Lean D
Model margin D +3.3
Verification trail
Polls verified 106 / 107deterministic
Polls flagged 1needs review
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings syncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-04
Endorsements —nothing to sync
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks