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Races · Governor · 2022 · Michigan
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Gretchen Whitmer vs Tudor Dixon

← Maine GovernorMinnesota Governor →
Likely DD +6.7 forecast· 78 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
87% Whitmer (D)
13% Dixon (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +6.7 · 80% CI R+5.3 → D+18.7
Actual result Gretchen WhitmerGarlin Gilchrist +10.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 87% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.3 (10th pctile) to D+18.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 87% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.7
80% CI: R +5.3 → D +18.7 · win prob 87%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used78
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultGretchen WhitmerGarlin Gilchrist +10.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

Latest poll · 7 candidates

This race has 7 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.

DGretchen Whitmer49.9%
REPTudor M. Dixon45.2%
RTudor Dixon45.1%
RKevin Rinke33.0%
RGarrett Soldano33.0%
RRyan Kelley23.0%
RRalph Rebandt19.0%

All polls · 78 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,097 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 49
Nov 5, 22Trafalgar Group1,097 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean48
Nov 3, 22Cygnal+11,603 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned50 · 47
Nov 2, 22Mitchell Research+1658 · LVNEUTRALR +0.017 tracked+0.6decoupled50 · 48
Nov 2, 22Mitchell Research & Communications658 · unknownNEUTRAL——49
Nov 2, 22Cygnal1,603 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned50
Nov 1, 22Cygnal+11,754 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 46
Oct 31, 22EPIC-MRA600 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned54 · 43
Oct 30, 22Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling1,584 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 45
Oct 30, 22Cygnal+11,584 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 45
Oct 29, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 45
Oct 29, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,137 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned49 · 47
Oct 29, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned45
Oct 29, 22Emerson College900 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51
Oct 29, 22EPIC-MRA600 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned54
Oct 28, 22KAConsultingFor · Politico501 · LVR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean48 · 41
Oct 28, 22Cygnal+11,543 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 44
Oct 28, 22Cygnal1,584 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51
Oct 27, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.+1For · WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News600 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 43
Oct 27, 22KAConsulting501 · unknownR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean48
Oct 27, 22Wick1,137 · unknownNEUTRAL——49
Oct 26, 22Cygnal+11,822 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 44
Oct 26, 22Glengariff Group600 · unknownD-LEAND +4.65 tracked+1.5aligned52
Oct 24, 22Cygnal1,378 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 45
Oct 22, 22Cygnal1,459 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned50 · 44
Oct 22, 22Cygnal1,378 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51
Oct 20, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,022 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 48
Oct 20, 22Cygnal+11,904 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned50 · 44
Oct 19, 22Trafalgar Group1,079 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean48
Oct 18, 22Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics541 · LVNEUTRALR +0.017 tracked+0.6decoupled49 · 47
Oct 18, 22Cygnal+11,793 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49 · 44
Oct 18, 22Mitchell Research & Communications541 · unknownNEUTRAL——49
Oct 17, 22CNN/SSRS901 · RVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean55 · 41
Oct 16, 22Cygnal1,793 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49
Oct 14, 22SSRS651 · unknownNEUTRAL——52
Oct 13, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling580 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 44
Oct 13, 22Cygnal640 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49 · 44
Oct 13, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,136 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned47 · 48
Oct 12, 22Cygnal640 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49
Oct 12, 22Emerson College580 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49
Oct 11, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 44
Oct 11, 22EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA600 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned49 · 38
Oct 10, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned44
Oct 10, 22Wick1,136 · unknownNEUTRAL——47
Oct 8, 22EPIC-MRA600 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned49
Oct 5, 22YouGov/CBS News+2For · CBS News1,285 · RVNEUTRAL—+1.6aligned53 · 47
Oct 4, 22YouGov1,285 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean53
Sep 28, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.+1For · The Detroit News600 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 32
Sep 27, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,075 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean51 · 45
Sep 27, 22Glengariff Group600 · unknownD-LEAND +4.65 tracked+1.5aligned50
Sep 25, 22Trafalgar Group1,075 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean51
Sep 18, 22EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA600 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned55 · 39
Sep 16, 22EPIC-MRA600 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned55
Sep 12, 22EPIC-MRA800 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned51 · 40
Sep 9, 22EPIC-MRA800 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned51
Aug 31, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.+1For · The Detroit News600 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 35
Aug 24, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,080 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean49 · 45
Aug 22, 22EPIC-MRA600 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned50 · 39
Aug 15, 22Blueprint Polling611 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean51 · 39
Aug 13, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+11,365 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned51 · 46
Jul 7, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 40
Jul 7, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 41
Jul 7, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 37
Jul 7, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 40
Jul 7, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 38
May 26, 22Target Insyght600 · RVNEUTRAL——58 · 21
May 26, 22Target Insyght600 · RVNEUTRAL——57 · 23
May 26, 22Target Insyght600 · RVNEUTRAL——58 · 19
May 26, 22Target Insyght600 · RVNEUTRAL——58 · 24
May 26, 22Target Insyght600 · RVNEUTRAL——58 · 22
May 16, 22EPIC-MRA600 · LVNEUTRALD +0.89 tracked+0.3aligned45
Apr 19, 22ARW Strategies600 · LVNEUTRAL——45
Jan 6, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 31
Jan 6, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 33
Jan 6, 22The Glengariff Group, Inc.For · WDIV600 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 33
Sep 18, 21Strategic National600 · LVR-LEAN——46 · 41
Jun 5, 21CygnalFor · Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned41
Feb 5, 21The Glengariff Group, Inc.+1For · The Detroit News600 · LVNEUTRAL——39
· 78 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 6 total

Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yet
6Whitmer · 100%
DGretchen Whitmer6 endorsers
Most notable · American Federation of Teachers
Organizations3
Other3
RTudor Dixon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPTudor M. Dixon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRyan Kelley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRalph Rebandt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKevin Rinke0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGarrett Soldano0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D3
Tilt D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 27
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 6
538
Likely D
Nov 7
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Mar 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified53 / 78deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks