Races · Governor · 2026 · MI
Governor · open seat

Jocelyn Benson vs John James

← ME Governor MN Governor →
Lean D D +3.2 · 176 days to election · 18 polls · 6 markets Last poll 42d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 52% R · market gap 16pp

lean-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +0.8
80% CI: R +18.3 → D +16.7 · win prob 48%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used18
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.3
80% CI D +0.2 → D +5.4
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +2.9
80% CI D +1.4 → D +4.3
CV MAE 1.13
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +0.8
80% CI R +18.3 → D +16.7
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 18 results

18 of 18 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/29/2026Impact Research1.00L800±3.5LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jocelyn Benson 40.0 · John James 36.0 · Mike Duggan 20.0pollarch
3/24/2026Michigan State University/YouGov1.00—1000±3.4A
no scored pollsadult sample+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Jocelyn Benson 27.0 · John James 19.0 · Mike Duggan 16.0pollarch
2/16/2026Impact Research1.00L800±3.5LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 83d old
    Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jocelyn Benson 39.0 · John James 36.0 · Mike Duggan 20.0pollarch
2/2/2026Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)——unknown
97d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 97d old
    Poll was fielded 97 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 28.0 · John James 29.0 · Mike Duggan 30.0pollarch
1/6/2026Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600±4.0LV
124d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 124d old
    Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 32.0 · John James 34.0 · Mike Duggan 26.0pollarch
1/6/2026Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600±4.0LV
124d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 124d old
    Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 34.0 · Mike Cox 28.0 · Mike Duggan 31.0pollarch
1/6/2026Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600±4.0LV
124d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 124d old
    Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 35.0 · Aric Nesbitt 24.0 · Mike Duggan 32.0pollarch
1/6/2026Glengariff Group0.81L(D+4.6)600±4.0LV
124d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 124d old
    Poll was fielded 124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 34.0 · Tom Leonard 24.0 · Mike Duggan 33.0pollarch
11/21/2025Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)616±3.7LV
170d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 170d old
    Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Jocelyn Benson 31.0 · John James 37.0 · Mike Duggan 18.0pollarch
11/11/2025EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600±4.0RV
180d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 180d old
    Poll was fielded 180 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 33.0 · John James 34.0 · Mike Duggan 20.0pollarch
10/25/2025Rosetta Stone Communications1.00R637±3.9LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 197d old
    Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jocelyn Benson 34.0 · John James 39.0 · Mike Duggan 18.0pollarch
10/25/2025Rosetta Stone Communications1.00R637±3.9LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 197d old
    Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jocelyn Benson 37.0 · Mike Cox 33.0 · Mike Duggan 19.0pollarch
10/25/2025Rosetta Stone Communications1.00R637±3.9LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 197d old
    Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jocelyn Benson 35.0 · Tudor Dixon 38.0 · Mike Duggan 18.0pollarch
3/13/2025Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)688±3.7LV
423d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 423d old
    Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Jocelyn Benson 37.0 · John James 34.0 · Mike Duggan 16.0pollarch
3/13/2025Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)688±3.7LV
423d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 423d old
    Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Jocelyn Benson 37.0 · Mike Cox 35.0 · Mike Duggan 16.0pollarch
3/13/2025Mitchell Research1.09neutral(R+0.0)688±3.7LV
423d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 423d old
    Poll was fielded 423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias R+0.0pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.
Jocelyn Benson 38.0 · Tudor Dixon 36.0 · Mike Duggan 16.0pollarch
2/8/2025Target Insyght1.00—600±4.0unknown
no scored polls456d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 456d old
    Poll was fielded 456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Jocelyn Benson 42.0 · John James 30.0 · Mike Duggan 21.0pollarch
2/8/2025EPIC MRA1.00—(D+0.8)600±4.0LV
456d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 456d old
    Poll was fielded 456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Detroit Free Press
    Commissioned by Detroit Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jocelyn Benson 31.0 · Dick DeVos 31.0 · Mike Duggan 23.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 77 total
Jocelyn Benson (D)
77 endorsements · source
Elected officials (8)
  • Christopher Taylor — mayor of Ann Arbor (2014–present) [ 26 ]
  • David LaGrand — mayor of Grand Rapids (2025–present) [ 28 ]
  • Gretchen Whitmer — incumbent governor (2019–present) [ 55 ]
  • James Blanchard — former governor of Michigan (1983–1991) [ 21 ]
  • John Cherry — former lieutenant governor of Michigan (2003–2011) [ 42 ]
  • Mark Schauer — former MI-7 (2009–2011) and nominee for governor in 2014 [ 20 ]
  • Virgil Bernero — former SD-23 (2003–2006) and former mayor of Lansing (2006–2018) [ 42 ]
  • Winnie Brinks — majority leader of the Michigan Senate (2023–present) from SD-29 (2019–present) [ 19 ]
Organizations / unions (12)
  • Association of Flight Attendants — CWA [ 31 ]
  • International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees — Local 26 [ 32 ]
  • International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers — Local 25 [ 43 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — Michigan and Local 948 [ 45 ] [ 43 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters — Locals 243, 247, 283, 406, and 1038 [ 33 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers — Local 324 [ 43 ]
  • Laborers' International Union of North America — Michigan District Council and Locals 355 and 499 [ 31 ]
  • Michigan Association for Justice — [ 39 ]
  • Nurses Association — sociation [ 34 ]
  • United Association — Local 174 [ 31 ]
  • United Food and Commercial Workers — Local 876 [ 31 ] and 951 [ 35 ]
  • [ 34 ] — an Building and Construction Trades Council of Northern Michigan [ 34 ]
Individuals / celebrities (3)
  • George Takei — actor [ 30 ]
  • Hill Harper — actor [ 26 ]
  • Horace Sheffield III — pastor and talk show host [ 29 ]
Other (54)
  • Adam Zemke — former HD-55 (2013–2019) [ 20 ]
  • Amos O'Neal — HD-94 (2021–present) [ 53 ]
  • Betsy Coffia — HD-103 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Brenda Carter — HD-53 (2019–present) [ 53 ]
  • Brenda Lawrence — former MI-14 (2015–2023) [ 19 ]
  • Carrie Rheingans — HD-47 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Cynthia Neeley — HD-70 (2020–present) [ 53 ]
  • Darrin Camilleri — SD-4 (2023–present) [ 23 ]
  • Denise Mentzer — HD-61 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Donavan McKinney — HD-11 (2023–present) [ 53 ]
  • Dylan Wegela — HD-26 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 36 ]
  • Elissa Slotkin — Michigan (2025–present) [ 54 ]
  • Emily Dievendorf — HD-77 (2023–present) [ 26 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 37 ]
  • Felicia Brabec — former HD-33 (2021–2024) [ 25 ]
  • Giffords — [ 38 ]
  • Hillary Scholten — MI-3 (2023–present) [ 10 ]
  • Ilhan Omar — MN-5 (2019–present) [ 50 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Boilermakers — [ 44 ]
  • Jasmine Crockett — TX-7 (2023–present) [ 49 ]
  • Jason Hoskins — HD-18 (2023–present) [ 25 ]
  • Jason Morgan — HD-23 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Jeff Irwin — SD-15 (2019–present) [ 21 ]
  • Jennifer Conlin — HD-48 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Jeremy Moss — SD-7 (2019–present) [ 24 ]
  • Jimmie Wilson Jr. — HD-32 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Joey Andrews — HD-38 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Julie Brixie — HD-73 (2019–present) [ 20 ]
  • Kelly Breen — HD-21 (2019–present) [ 20 ]
  • Kimberly Edwards — HD-12 (2023–present) [ 53 ]
  • Kym Worthy — Wayne County Prosecuting Attorney (2004–present) [ 27 ]
  • Laurie Pohutsky — HD-17 (2019–present) (previously endorsed Gilchrist) [ 23 ]
  • Mai Xiong — HD-13 (2024–present) (previously endorsed Gilchrist) [ 22 ]
  • Morgan Foreman — HD-33 (2025–present) (previously endorsed Gilchrist) [ 25 ]
  • Natalie Price — HD-6 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Noah Arbit — HD-20 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Paul Wojno — SD-10 (2019–present) (previously endorsed Gilchrist) [ 23 ]
  • Penelope Tsernoglou — HD-75 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Peter Herzberg — HD25 (2024–present) [ 53 ]
  • Phil Skaggs — HD-80 (2023–present) [ 20 ]
  • Pramila Jayapal — WA-7 (2017–present) [ 50 ]
  • Ranjeev Puri — minority leader of the Michigan House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-24 (2021–present) [ 23 ]
  • Rashida Tlaib — MI-12 (2019–present) [ 51 ]
  • Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 40 ]
  • Sam Singh — SD-28 (2023–present) [ 21 ]
  • Sarah Anthony — SD-21 (2023–present) [ 22 ]
  • Sean McCann — SD-19 (2019–present) [ 20 ]
  • Stephanie Chang — SD-3 (2019–present) [ 22 ]
  • Stephen Wooden — HD-81 (2025–present) [ 25 ]
  • Tonya Myers Phillips — HD-7 (2025–present) [ 27 ]
  • Veronica Klinefelt — SD-11 (2023–present) [ 52 ]
  • Veronica Paiz — HD-10 (2023–present) [ 21 ]
  • Vote Mama — [ 41 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Sep 11 +3.2 0.0 +3.2
Inside Elections Tossup Aug 28 +3.2 0.0 +3.2
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup Sep 4 +3.2 0.0 +3.2

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 6 weeks ago (3/29/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D D+3.2 via polls

In the news

News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.