Races · Governor · 2026 · Michigan

Governor · open seat · provisional matchup

Jocelyn Benson vs Republican

Likely matchup — the Republican nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.

← Maine Governor Minnesota Governor →

Likely DD +5.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 49 polls · 6 marketsLast poll 20d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
73% Benson (D)
27% Republican (R)
Win probability
Jocelyn Benson73% (D)
Republican27% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.3
80% CIR+5.7 → D+16.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +5.3 · 80% CI R+5.7 → D+16.3 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

0.0 pp/wk

stable · 30d

Tipping-point P

16.4%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 84¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Info · primary pending

The Republican nominee hasn't been chosen yet

5 Republican candidates remain. See the republican primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.

Where this race stands

Verified

Jocelyn Benson (D) and John James (R) compete for Michigan governor on November 3, 2026. The race is rated likely-D with a polling-average margin of 11 points. The most recent survey, by Mitchell Research (June 13, 2026; n=827 likely voters), shows Benson leading James 51%–40% [1]. Prediction markets price a Democratic victory as a strong probability: Kalshi at 84% [5] and Polymarket at 83.5% [6].

CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-medium

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

Medium uncertainty

Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).

Forecast CI width73

22.0pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement4

0.7pp across models

Pollster dispersion21

2.1pp cross-pollster spread

Polling sparsity0

13 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.3

80% CI: R +5.7 → D +16.3 · win prob 73%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	49
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.57pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +5.3

80% CI R +9.3 → D +7.0

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +4.6

80% CI D +3.1 → D +6.0

CV MAE 1.13

consensusMarket-implied

D +9.1

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
101520253035404550BENSON 47.2REPUBLICAN 38.9DUGGAN 17.2FEB '25OCT '25JUN '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 84¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 37 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 84% · polls 47%.

Cross-platform price · history

50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢428 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 5Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?”	84¢	16¢	+0¢	—	-0
Kalshi “Michigan Governor winner?”	84¢	18¢	+0¢	$1K	+0

External cross-checkExternal

Not part of our model or polling average

VoteHubaggregator ↗

2 polls · through May 23, 2026 · latest TIPP Insights

Jocelyn Benson

VoteHub47.5%

PoliAgg avg47.2%

Δ 0.3 pt above our average

John James

VoteHub36.5%

no matching candidate in our average

VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through May 23, 2026): Jocelyn Benson 47.5%, John James 36.5%.

Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.

All polls · 49 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Jun 16, 26	Mitchell ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	51 · 40
Jun 16, 26	Mitchell ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	48 · 41
Jun 16, 26	Mitchell ResearchFor · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	50 · 42
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	48 · 41
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	51 · 40
Jun 12, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	827 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	50 · 42
May 31, 26	TIPPFor · League of American Workers	1,154 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.8d lean	49 · 38
May 22, 26	TIPP Insights+1For · Internal R-aligned	1,456 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	46 · 35
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	606 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	42 · 30
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	606 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 30
May 13, 26	Mitchell Research+1For · RealClearPolitics	606 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	42 · 32
May 11, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 29
May 11, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 26
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	42 · 30
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	42 · 32
May 6, 26	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	607 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	41 · 30
Apr 30, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 29
Apr 30, 26	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 26
Apr 19, 26	Michigan State Univ.	1,000 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	30 · 23
Mar 28, 26	Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+10.7d lean	40 · 36
Mar 23, 26	Michigan State University/YouGovFor · YouGov	1,000 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	27 · 19
Feb 15, 26	Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+10.7d lean	39 · 36
Feb 1, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · Detroit Regional Chamber	— · unknown	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	28 · 29
Jan 12, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	32 · 34
Jan 12, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 28
Jan 12, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	35 · 24
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	32 · 34
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 28
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	35 · 24
Jan 5, 26	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	34 · 24
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	31 · 37
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	33 · 32
Dec 1, 25	Mitchell Research	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	32 · 27
Nov 20, 25	Mitchell Research+1	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	31 · 37
Nov 13, 25	EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	33 · 34
Nov 10, 25	EPIC-MRA+1For · Detroit Free Press	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	33 · 34
Nov 5, 25	Rosetta Stone	637 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	34 · 39
Nov 5, 25	Rosetta Stone	637 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	37 · 33
Oct 24, 25	Rosetta Stone Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned	637 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	34 · 39
Oct 24, 25	Rosetta Stone Communications+1For · Internal R-aligned	637 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	37 · 33
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	35 · 34
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	35 · 27
May 27, 25	Glengariff Group	600 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	36 · 26
Mar 17, 25	Mitchell Research	688 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	37 · 34
Mar 17, 25	Mitchell Research	688 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	37 · 35
Mar 12, 25	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	688 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	37 · 34
Mar 12, 25	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	688 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	37 · 35
Mar 7, 25	Target Insyght	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 30
Feb 7, 25	Target Insyght	600 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 30

· 49 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 116 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

89Benson · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Jocelyn Benson89 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total89
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJocelyn Benson89 endorsers

Most notable · Ranjeev Puri · minority leader of the Michigan House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-24 (2021–present)

Other37

Elected officials25

Federal 5State 15Local 4

Organizations22

Celebrity4

Newspapers1

IMike Duggan27 endorsers

Most notable · Laura Toy · at-large Livonia city councilor (1988–1995, 2008–2015, 2018–present) and former state senator from the 6th district (2003–2006) (Republican)

Organizations16

Elected officials8

Federal 1State 1Local 3

Celebrity2

Other1

RRepublican0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

John JamesOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$4.5M

Disburse

$2.1M

Cash on hand

—

Debts

—

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup2

Cook Political Report

Lean D

May 20

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Jun 24

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

Jun 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Tossup

Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News

News volume · 30d

93 articles · building history

Net favorability

+0.05

Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.13 wk

Coverage tilt

D 6%

Neutral 92%

R 1%

8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean

clickondetroit.com · 22h ago

Michigan officials respond after DOJ sends election monitoring letters to Detroit, Lansing, East Lansing