Republican primary · August 4, 2026
Michigan Governor Republican primary
Field of 5 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
28
Low uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (16.6pp).
Forecast CI width55
16.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution55 / 100
Measured16.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
12 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured12 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 8 polls + fundamentals1John JamesJohn Edward James (born June 8, 1981 ) is an American politician, businessman, and former military officer serving as the U.S. representativ…
2Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Michigan . He is on the ballot in the Republican primary on Augus…
3Mike CoxMike Cox ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Michigan . He is on the ballot in the Republican primary on August 4, …
4Aric NesbittAric Nesbitt ( Republican Party ) is a member of the Michigan State Senate , representing District 20 . He assumed office on January 1, 2023…
5Rebandt
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 37 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Johnson | Cox | James | Nesbitt | Leonard | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 26 | Mitchell Research | 404 · LV | 23 | 27 | 28 | 4 | — | +1 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Strategic National | 500 · LV | 27 | 12 | 24 | 6 | — | +3 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 175 · LV | 10 | 20 | 38 | 3 | — | +18 |
| Jun 12, 26 | Mitchell Research | 404 · LV | 23 | 27 | 28 | 4 | — | +1 |
| Jun 3, 26 | Tarrance Group | 500 · LV | 26 | 22 | 38 | 12 | — | +12 |
| May 31, 26 | TIPP | 555 · LV | 19 | 20 | 31 | 3 | — | +11 |
| May 31, 26 | TIPP | 555 · LV | 19 | 20 | 31 | 3 | — | +11 |
| May 22, 26 | TIPP | 555 · LV | 19 | 20 | 31 | 3 | — | +11 |
| May 22, 26 | TIPP Insights | 555 · LV | 19 | 20 | 31 | 3 | — | +11 |
| May 13, 26 | 1892 Polling | 681 · LV | 23 | 7 | 24 | 7 | — | +1 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetJohn James · 13Tom Leonard · 1
RJohn James13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 2State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Aric Nesbitt · minority leader of the Michigan Senate (2023–present) from SD-20 (2019–present)
- Tom Leonard · former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2017–2019) from HD-93 (2013–2019)
- Alicia St. Germaine · HD-62 (2023–present)
- Jack Bergman · MI-01 (2017–present)
- Jay DeBoyer · HD-63 (2023–present)
- Jon Bumstead · SD-32 (2019–present)
- Peter Lucido · Macomb County prosecutor (2021–present) and former SD-8 (2019–2020)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Kid Rock · rapper
- Ted Nugent · singer and songwriter
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Americans for Prosperity · Michigan
- Right to Life · of Michigan
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Detroit Free Press
RTom Leonard1 endorser
Most notable · Tom McMillin · member of the Michigan State Board of Education (2017–present)
Other1
Other · 1
- Tom McMillin · member of the Michigan State Board of Education (2017–present)
RMike Cox0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPerry Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAric Nesbitt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
93 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles93
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.05
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.13 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.05
Week-over-weekshift +0.13 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 92%
R 1%
8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral92%
R-leaning outlets1%
8% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
Michigan officials respond after DOJ sends election monitoring letters to Detroit, Lansing, East Lansing
M
John James, Republican running for governor, relates Dearborn religious procession to extremism
M
Pete Buttigieg endorses Jocelyn Benson for Michigan governor
B
Pete Buttigieg endorses Benson for Michigan governor, hints at White House run
D
Pete Buttigieg endorses Jocelyn Benson for governor
D
'Debate week' set to test GOP, Democratic hopefuls in top Michigan races
N
Who Is Ahead in the Michigan Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
W
How to watch the Michigan GOP primary debate for governor
W
How to watch the Michigan GOP primary debate for governor
S
Jocelyn Benson begins statewide tour, talks affordibility with Detroit business
Page 1 of 4
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 37deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements161 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks