Republican primary · August 11, 2026
Minnesota Governor Republican primary
Field of 5 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
59
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (16.7pp).
Forecast CI width56
16.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution56 / 100
Measured16.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Mike LindellMichael James Lindell, also known as the My Pillow Guy and Mike Pillow, is an American businessman, political activist, and conspiracy theor…
2Lisa DemuthBusiness owner
3Kendall QuallsChallenger
4Scott JensenScott Jensen may refer to:Scott Jensen, member of the Wisconsin State Assembly Scott Jensen, member of the Minnesota Senate
5Kristin RobbinsChallenger
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Demuth | Qualls | Lindell | Jensen | Robbins | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16 | SurveyUSA | 450 · RV | 22 | 17 | 27 | — | — | +5 |
| Jun 15 | KSTP/Survey USA | 450 · LV | 22 | 17 | 27 | — | — | +5 |
| May 19 | Big Data Poll | 512 · LV | 19 | 9 | 21 | — | — | +2 |
| Jan 31 | Peak Insights | 500 · LV | 17 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 3 | +1 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetMike Lindell · 2Kendall Qualls · 2
RMike Lindell2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Conservative Political Action Conference
RKendall Qualls2 endorsers
Most notable · Kristin Robbins · Minnesota legislator and former candidate for this race
Elected officials1
Elected officials · 1
- Kristin Robbins · Minnesota legislator and former candidate for this race
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republican Party of Minnesota
RLisa Demuth0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RScott Jensen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKristin Robbins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
67 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles67
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.12
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.12
Week-over-weekshift −0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 12%
Neutral 88%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets12%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets0%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
Outsiders won Minnesota GOP backing. Are they well-known enough to win elections?
B
Amy Klobuchar | Biography, Books, & Facts
M
The billionaire backing Lisa Demuth’s run for governor
K
Klobuchar stops in Moorhead on campaign trail for MN Gov.
S
Megadonor Richard Uihlein fuels Lisa Demuth campaign
G
Klobuchar stops in East Grand Forks to tout rural agriculture and economy plan
I
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar announces plan to grow rural Minnesota economy
K
Senator Amy Klobuchar Visiting Eight Northern Minnesota Counties
V
Klobuchar unveils rural economy plan in Moorhead as part of governor’s race
V
Klobuchar heads to northwest Minnesota for three-day rural economy tour
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks