Pollster · 209 of 1769
Tarrance Group
Polls scored
7
Mean error
4.1 pt
Signed bias
R+2.61
Aggregation weight
1.54
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components61
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
r-leanAcross 5 graded races, Tarrance Group's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -3.6pp. That's a measurable R-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
-3.6pp
Median delta
-3.0pp
Std-dev
1.9pp
N graded
5
Recent activity
Total all time
41
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
2
Last 180d
3
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #2 / 10 | 5 | 2.65 pt | R+1.64 pp |
Recent polls
- 6/3/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Mike Cox 22.0 · John James 38.0 · Perry Johnson 26.0 · Aric Nesbitt 12.0
- 4/13/2026Alabama · Senate · 2026Jared Hudson 24.0 · Steve Marshall 27.0 · Barry Moore 28.0
- 4/1/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Jay Collins 6.0 · Byron Donalds 50.0 · James Fishback 9.0 · Paul Renner 3.0
- 10/28/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 50.0
- 9/17/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 49.0 · Mike Rogers 47.0
- 10/25/2023Nevada · Senate · 2024Jacky Rosen 45.0 · Sam Brown 40.0
- 9/25/2023West Virginia · Senate · 2024Joe Manchin 43.0 · Jim Justice 49.0
- 2/6/2023West Virginia · Senate · 2024Joe Manchin 42.0 · Jim Justice 52.0
- 2/6/2023West Virginia · Senate · 2024Joe Manchin 55.0 · Alex Mooney 40.0
- 2/6/2023West Virginia · Senate · 2024Joe Manchin 52.0 · Patrick Morrisey 42.0