| 8/27/2024 | Research America | 1.00 | — | 400 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡621d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
621d old Poll was fielded 621 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Glenn Elliott 28.0 · Jim Justice 62.0 | pollarch |
| 6/4/2024 | Kaplan Strategies | 1.00 | — | 464 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡705d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
705d old Poll was fielded 705 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Glenn Elliott 27.0 · Jim Justice 60.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2023 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 539 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡949d old+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
949d old Poll was fielded 949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Joe Manchin 28.0 · Jim Justice 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2023 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 539 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡949d old+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
949d old Poll was fielded 949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Joe Manchin 37.0 · Alex Mooney 31.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2023 | Tarrance Group | 1.61 | —(D+0.9) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡957d old+3- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
957d old Poll was fielded 957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 43.0 · Jim Justice 49.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2023 | Research America | 1.00 | — | 402 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡988d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
988d old Poll was fielded 988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Joe Manchin 38.0 · Jim Justice 51.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2023 | Research America | 1.00 | — | 402 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡988d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
988d old Poll was fielded 988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Joe Manchin 45.0 · Alex Mooney 41.0 | pollarch |
| 5/23/2023 | East Carolina University | 1.63 | —(D+1.8) | 957 | — | RV | 🟡1083d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1083d old Poll was fielded 1083 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Joe Manchin 32.0 · Jim Justice 54.0 | pollarch |
| 5/23/2023 | East Carolina University | 1.63 | —(D+1.8) | 957 | — | RV | 🟡1083d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1083d old Poll was fielded 1083 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Joe Manchin 40.0 · Alex Mooney 41.0 | pollarch |
| 4/25/2023 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 974 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+5.4pt🟡1111d old+4- 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1111d old Poll was fielded 1111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: National Journal Commissioned by National Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 29.0 · Jim Justice 43.0 | pollarch |
| 4/25/2023 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 974 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 66.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1111d old Poll was fielded 1111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: National Journal Commissioned by National Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 36.0 · Alex Mooney 30.0 | pollarch |
| 2/7/2023 | Tarrance Group | 1.61 | —(D+0.9) | 609 | — | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1188d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1188d old Poll was fielded 1188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 42.0 · Jim Justice 52.0 | pollarch |
| 2/7/2023 | Tarrance Group | 1.61 | —(D+0.9) | 609 | — | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1188d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1188d old Poll was fielded 1188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 55.0 · Alex Mooney 40.0 | pollarch |
| 2/7/2023 | Tarrance Group | 1.61 | —(D+0.9) | 609 | — | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡1188d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1188d old Poll was fielded 1188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Joe Manchin 52.0 · Patrick Morrisey 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 762 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1353d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1353d old Poll was fielded 1353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Joe Manchin 32.0 · Jim Justice 47.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 762 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1353d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1353d old Poll was fielded 1353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Joe Manchin 38.0 · Alex Mooney 45.0 | pollarch |
| 8/26/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 762 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1353d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1353d old Poll was fielded 1353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Joe Manchin 36.0 · Patrick Morrisey 50.0 | pollarch |
| 1/20/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 783 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1571d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1571d old Poll was fielded 1571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Joe Manchin 41.0 · Jim Justice 37.0 | pollarch |
| 1/20/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 783 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1571d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1571d old Poll was fielded 1571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Joe Manchin 49.0 · Alex Mooney 28.0 | pollarch |
| 1/20/2022 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 783 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1571d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1571d old Poll was fielded 1571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Joe Manchin 50.0 · Patrick Morrisey 29.0 | pollarch |