Races · Senate · 2024 · West Virginia

Senate · class I · open seat

Glenn Elliott vs Jim Justice

← Wisconsin Senate Wyoming Senate →

Safe RR +23.1 forecast· 3 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Elliott (D)
99% Justice (R)
Win probability
Glenn Elliott1% (D)
Jim Justice99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +23.1
80% CIR+35.0 → R+11.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +23.1 · 80% CI R+35.0 → R+11.1
Actual result R+41.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.0 (10th pctile) to R+11.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +23.1

80% CI: R +35.0 → R +11.1 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+41.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
253035404550556065JUSTICE 62.0ELLIOTT 28.0JUN '24JUL '24AUG '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 3 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Aug 26, 24	Research America+1For · WV MetroNews	400 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	-5.0noisy	28 · 62
Jun 3, 24	Kaplan Strategies	464 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	27 · 60
Sep 25, 23	Tarrance GroupFor · Politico	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	49

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DGlenn Elliott0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJim Justice0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01

Jim JusticeS4WV00332 ↗

Receipts

$4.6M

Disburse

$3.9M

Cash on hand

$693.9K

Debts

Top industries

Electric utilities$13.2K

Oil & gas$13.2K

Top contributors

COMMUNICARE HEALTH SERVICES$19.8K

ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION$16.5K

ARCH RESOURCES INC$14.1K

CMS$13.2K

GOULD'S ELECTRIC MOTOR REPAIR INC$13.2K

Glenn ElliottOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$855.1K

Disburse

$845.9K

Cash on hand

$9.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$7.2K

Lawyers / law firms$6.6K

Computers / electronics$3.3K

Top contributors

APPIAN CORPORATIOM$6.6K

APB LLP$6.6K

HARVARD UNIVERSITY$3.8K

MCARTHURGLEN$3.5K

GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY$3.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$12.7M

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$12.7M · 100%

Top spender

DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS

For / against split

For Justice $12.7M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	R	$9.1M	72%	for Jim Justice
TEAM WEST VIRGINIA	R	$3.6M	28%	for Jim Justice
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$23.8K	0%	for Jim Justice
WEST VIRGINIANS FOR LIFE INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$794.88	0%	for Jim Justice

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R9

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 20

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

May 16

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Safe R

Jun 7

Elections Daily

Safe R

May 3

538

Safe R

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Safe R

May 8

RealClearPolitics

Safe R

Aug 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Apr 16

Split Ticket

Safe R

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified3 / 3deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks