Races · Senate · 2024 · Nevada

Senate · class I · open seat

Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown

← New Mexico Senate New York Senate →

Likely DD +5.1 forecast· 70 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
80% Rosen (D)
20% Brown (R)
Win probability
Jacky Rosen80% (D)
Sam Brown20% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.1
80% CIR+6.9 → D+17.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +5.1 · 80% CI R+6.9 → D+17.1
Actual result D+1.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 80% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.9 (10th pctile) to D+17.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.1

80% CI: R +6.9 → D +17.1 · win prob 80%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	70
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+1.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
303540455055ROSEN 48.3BROWN 44.4OCT '23APR '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 70 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 3, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	707 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 43
Nov 2, 24	Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling	792 · RV	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	51 · 48
Nov 1, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	782 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	46 · 46
Nov 1, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	840 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 44
Nov 1, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	1,010 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	52 · 43
Oct 30, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	845 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	47 · 45
Oct 30, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	700 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 45
Oct 30, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	593 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	48 · 46
Oct 30, 24	Susquehanna Polling & Research	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.07 tracked	+2.3d lean	46 · 47
Oct 30, 24	YouGov	753 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	51 · 44
Oct 29, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	767 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	50 · 41
Oct 29, 24	Data for Progress+1For · Data for Progress	721 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 42
Oct 28, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,083 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 44
Oct 27, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,082 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	47 · 45
Oct 25, 24	CNN/SRSS	683 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.1d lean	50 · 41
Oct 21, 24	OnMessage Inc.+1	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.25 tracked	-4.1r lean	48 · 48
Oct 19, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	48 · 44
Oct 17, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	529 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 41
Oct 16, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,171 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	47 · 43
Oct 14, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	49 · 44
Oct 14, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	496 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	52 · 37
Oct 13, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	838 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	46 · 41
Oct 13, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	748 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	47 · 44
Oct 12, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,088 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 43
Oct 7, 24	Emerson College+1For · Since the last round of Emerson	900 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 42
Oct 2, 24	RMG Research	782 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	53 · 37
Oct 1, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	514 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 41
Sep 29, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 42
Sep 24, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	858 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 46
Sep 24, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	409 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	52 · 38
Sep 21, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	738 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	50 · 40
Sep 19, 24	Remington Research Group+1	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	47 · 41
Sep 18, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	652 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	47 · 38
Sep 18, 24	The Tarrance Group+2	600 · LV	R-LEAN	D +1.13 tracked	+0.3noisy	48 · 41
Sep 17, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	895 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 41
Sep 17, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	474 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	52 · 39
Sep 15, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	692 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	53 · 38
Sep 12, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,079 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 40
Sep 8, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	698 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	47 · 39
Sep 7, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	516 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	50 · 40
Sep 2, 24	YouGov	800 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	51 · 39
Aug 30, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 39
Aug 28, 24	CNN/SRSS	626 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.1d lean	50 · 40
Aug 27, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	490 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	43 · 39
Aug 27, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,168 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 40
Aug 25, 24	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,026 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	55 · 41
Aug 17, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	980 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	50 · 39
Aug 14, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	536 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	41 · 37
Aug 14, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	677 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	48 · 37
Aug 13, 24	Strategies 360+1	350 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +2.53 tracked	+2.8d lean	50 · 38
Aug 4, 24	Providence PollingFor · The Nevada Independent	991 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	52 · 40
Aug 2, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	470 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	41 · 38
Aug 1, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	403 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	54 · 36
Jul 23, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	435 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	45 · 40
Jul 17, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	412 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	41 · 37
Jul 11, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	761 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	45 · 42
Jul 11, 24	YouGov	800 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	47 · 40
Jun 30, 24	Remington Research Group+1	601 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	48 · 46
Jun 30, 24	National Public Affairs	817 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 33
Jun 17, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 38
Jun 17, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1For · AARP	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	47 · 42
May 24, 24	The Tyson Group	601 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 33
May 20, 24	Mainstreet Research/FAU+1	522 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +4.74 tracked	+0.6aligned	48 · 35
May 8, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	614 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	40 · 38
Apr 28, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 37
Mar 14, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	41 · 39
Mar 4, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	829 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	41 · 35
Feb 18, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 38
Dec 6, 23	Change Research+1	2,532 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	39 · 38
Oct 25, 23	Tarrance GroupFor · National Republican Senatorial Committee	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	45 · 40

· 70 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 35 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

35Rosen · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Jacky Rosen35 · 100%
Sam Brown0 · 0%
Total35
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJacky Rosen35 endorsers

Most notable · Andy Beshear · Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)

Organizations16

Other14

Elected officials4

Federal 2State 2Local 0

Newspapers1

RSam Brown0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19

Sam BrownS2NV00308 ↗

Receipts

$24.1M

Disburse

$23.8M

Cash on hand

$263.6K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Jacky RosenS8NV00156 ↗

Receipts

$43.9M

Disburse

$46.6M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$140.6K

Air transport$60.6K

Internet$53.5K

Casinos / gambling$49.9K

Lawyers / law firms$46.8K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$72.0K

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$68.5K

GOOGLE, INC.$53.5K

MOTLEY RICE, LLC$51.5K

MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL$49.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$32.4M

D side

$30.1M · 93%

R side

$2.3M · 7%

Top spender

WINSENATE

For / against split

For Rosen $3.3M

Against Brown $26.8M

Against Rosen $23.6K

For Brown $2.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WINSENATE	D	$26.3M	81%	against Sam Brown
STATE ACTION FUND PAC INC.	R	$1.2M	4%	for Sam Brown
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$1.1M	3%	for Jacky Rosen
SOMOS PAC	D	$1.0M	3%	for Jacky Rosen
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$637.8K	2%	for Jacky Rosen
DMFI PAC	D	$478.5K	1%	against Sam Brown
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND	R	$265.1K	1%	for Sam Brown
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$177.4K	1%	for Sam Brown
REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL FREEDOM FUND	D	$125.0K	0%	for Jacky Rosen
UNIDOSUS ACTION PAC	D	$122.0K	0%	for Jacky Rosen

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D3

Lean D5

Tossup1

CNalysis

Lean D

Nov 3

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Aug 14

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Lean D

Oct 2

Elections Daily

Likely D

Oct 8

538

Likely D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 17

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

Oct 17

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 8

Split Ticket

Likely D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified70 / 70deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-19

Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks