Races · Senate · 2024 · New Mexico

Senate · class I · open seat

Martin Heinrich vs Nella Domenici

← New Jersey Senate Nevada Senate →

Likely DD +7.1 forecast· 12 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
88% Heinrich (D)
12% Domenici (R)
Win probability
Martin Heinrich88% (D)
Nella Domenici12% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.1
80% CIR+4.9 → D+19.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.1 · 80% CI R+4.9 → D+19.1
Actual result D+10.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 88% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.9 (10th pctile) to D+19.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.1

80% CI: R +4.9 → D +19.1 · win prob 88%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	12
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+10.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
323640444852HEINRICH 49.9DOMENICI 42.2MAY '24AUG '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 12 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 2	Victory Insights	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	+1.0noisy	50 · 48
Oct 17	Research & Polling Inc.+1	1,024 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.76 tracked	-5.3noisy	51 · 40
Sep 17	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	619 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	47 · 34
Sep 12	Research & Polling Inc.+1	532 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.76 tracked	-5.3noisy	50 · 38
Sep 8	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	521 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	47 · 37
Aug 27	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	488 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	43 · 33
Aug 21	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	965 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 37
Aug 14	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	453 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	42 · 36
Aug 2	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	493 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	40 · 34
Jun 23	1892 Polling	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	46 · 42
Jun 13	Public Policy PollingFor · NM Political	555 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 40
May 18	Red Oak Strategies+2For · National Review	1,800 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 38

· 12 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMartin Heinrich0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RNella Domenici0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05

Nella DomeniciS4NM00183 ↗

Receipts

$7.0M

Disburse

$6.9M

Cash on hand

$71.7K

Debts

$2.8M

Top industries

Oil & gas$13.2K

Insurance$12.0K

Securities & investment$10.4K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$121.0K

ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS$37.9K

TLC PLUMBING$19.8K

RDV CORPORATION$16.5K

AUDAX GROUP$13.2K

Martin HeinrichS2NM00088 ↗

Receipts

$10.7M

Disburse

$11.5M

Cash on hand

$319.6K

Debts

Top industries

Education$73.0K

Electric utilities$39.5K

Lawyers / law firms$26.3K

Top contributors

LS POWER DEVELOPMENT LLC$48.3K

MMR CONSTRUCTORS INC$47.8K

NEXTERA ENERGY RESOURCES$39.5K

UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO$39.4K

SUMMIT RIDGE ENERGY LLC$33.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$4.1M

D side

$3.3M · 81%

R side

$759.6K · 19%

Top spender

CFFE PAC

For / against split

For Heinrich $172.1K

Against Domenici $3.2M

Against Heinrich $698.5K

For Domenici $61.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CFFE PAC	D	$2.6M	62%	against Nella Domenici
SOMOS PAC	D	$600.0K	15%	against Nella Domenici
AMERICAN FREEDOM PAC (AFPAC)	R	$327.1K	8%	against Martin Heinrich
SAFER NM COMMUNITIES	R	$183.2K	4%	against Martin Heinrich
FRONTIERS OF FREEDOM ACTION, INC.	R	$167.3K	4%	against Martin Heinrich
CLIMATE EMERGENCY ADVOCATES	D	$94.5K	2%	for Martin Heinrich
JEFFERSON RISING	R	$82.0K	2%	against Martin Heinrich

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

Likely D2

Lean D1

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 20

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 8

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Likely D

Oct 29

Elections Daily

Safe D

May 3

538

Safe D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 8

RealClearPolitics

Lean D

Aug 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 8

Split Ticket

Likely D

Oct 29

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified12 / 12deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks