Pollster · 207 of 1769
OnMessage Inc.
Polls scored
12
Mean error
4.5 pt
Signed bias
R+2.98
Aggregation weight
3.36
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components70
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
r-leanAcross 10 graded races, OnMessage Inc.'s released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -4.1pp. That's a measurable R-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
-4.1pp
Median delta
-4.0pp
Std-dev
3.6pp
N graded
10
Recent activity
Total all time
39
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
1
Last 180d
3
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #2 / 26 | 5 | 1.19 pt | R+0.21 pp |
Recent polls
- 4/17/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Mike Cox 7.0 · John James 41.0 · Perry Johnson 18.0 · Aric Nesbitt 5.0
- 3/18/2026Michigan · Governor · 2026Mike Cox 10.0 · John James 37.0 · Perry Johnson 19.0 · Tom Leonard 1.0 · Aric Nesbitt 4.0
- 1/7/2026Kentucky · Senate · 2026Andy Barr 25.0 · Daniel Cameron 40.0 · Nate Morris 13.0
- 8/13/2025Connecticut · Governor · 2026Ryan Fazio 13.0 · Erin Stewart 42.0
- 1/18/2025Michigan · Governor · 2026Mike Cox 4.0 · John James 46.0 · Tom Leonard 1.0 · Aric Nesbitt 6.0
- 10/30/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 47.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0
- 10/30/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0
- 10/21/2024Nevada · Senate · 2024Jacky Rosen 48.0 · Sam Brown 48.0
- 10/21/2024Ohio · Senate · 2024Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Bernie Moreno 49.0
- 10/21/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0