Races · Senate · 2026 · Kentucky
Senate · class II · open seat
Charles Booker vs Andy Barr
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.3 (10th pctile) to R+13.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 10.5% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (20.5pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
22.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured22.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.0
80% CI: R +34.3 → R +13.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +30.0
80% CI R +33.0 → R +26.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.3
80% CI R +10.1 → R +4.4
CV MAE 2.22
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 6¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 31 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 6% · polls 38%.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 650 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 38 · 49 |
| Dec 18 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 650 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 36 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet9
23
Endorsements tracked
Charles Booker9 · 28%
Andy Barr23 · 72%
Total32
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAndy Barr23 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 7State 10Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Damon Thayer · former majority leader of the Kentucky Senate from SD-17 (2013–2025)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Max Wise · majority leader of the Kentucky Senate (2025–present) from SD-16 (2015–present)
- Mike Wilson · majority whip of the Kentucky Senate from SD-32 (2011–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Amanda Mays Bledsoe · SD-12 (2023–present)
- Greg Elkins · SD-28 (2023–present)
- Kim King · HD-55 (2011–present)
- Phillip Wheeler · SD-31 (2019–present)
- Scott Madon · SD-29 (2025–present)
- David Meade · speaker pro tempore of the Kentucky House of Representatives (2019–present) from HD-80 (2013–present)
- Killian Timoney · former HD-45 (2021–2025)
- Markwayne Mullin · U.S. secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
- Ted Budd · North Carolina (2023–present)
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tom Cotton · Arkansas (2015–present)
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Joe Craft · businessman
- Nate Morris · businessman
- Riley Gaines · conservative activist and former swimmer
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
Other1
Other · 1
- Kelly Craft · former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (2019–2021)
DCharles Booker9 endorsers
Most notable · Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AFL-CIO · Kentucky
- Communications Workers of America · Kentucky
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
- Our Revolution
- Track AIPAC
- Working Families Party
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Deval Patrick · former governor of Massachusetts (2007–2015) and U.S. assistant attorney general for civil rights (1994–1997)
- John Yarmuth · former KY-3 (2007–2023)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-02Andy BarrH0KY06104 ↗
Receipts
$8.4M
Disburse
$9.6M
Cash on hand
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$65.4K
Securities & investment · $65.4K
- Blackstone · $29.9K
- Apollo Global Management · $18.0K
- Apollo · $17.5K
Individuals $65.4K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$64.7K
Commercial banks · $64.7K
- Pnc · $50.0K
- Truist · $14.7K
Individuals $64.7K · PACs $0
Insurance$21.0K
Insurance · $21.0K
- Tower Hill Insurance · $21.0K
Individuals $21.0K · PACs $0
Crop production$21.0K
Crop production · $21.0K
- Mt Brilliant Farm · $21.0K
Individuals $21.0K · PACs $0
Real estate$15.0K
Real estate · $15.0K
- Umh Properties · $15.0K
Individuals $15.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PNC$50.0K
FICO$35.0K
BLACKSTONE$29.9K
TOWER HILL INSURANCE$21.0K
MT BRILLIANT FARM$21.0K
Charles BookerS6KY00385 ↗
Receipts
$508.7K
Disburse
$368.4K
Cash on hand
$140.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$14.0K
Education · $14.0K
- Friends School · $3.5K
- University of Wi · $3.5K
- Fayette County Public Schools · $3.5K
- Bellarmine University · $3.5K
Individuals $14.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE VISTRIA GROUP$7.0K
TEXAS HOME HEALTH$7.0K
FRIENDS SCHOOL$3.5K
IMC$3.5K
UNIVERSITY OF WI$3.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$18.7M
D side
$4.5M · 24%
R side
$14.2M · 76%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $7.2M | 38% | for Andy Barr |
| KEEP AMERICA GREAT PAC, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $5.7M | 30% | for Andy Barr |
| Win it Back PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.4M | 24% | against Andy Barr |
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $676.4K | 4% | for Andy Barr |
| March On PAC other · boosts D
| D | $25.0K | 0% | for Charles Booker |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 21
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 12
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
- RealClearPolitics · May 18
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements64 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks