Races · Senate · 2024 · WI
Senate · class II · open seat

Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

← WA Senate WV Senate →
Tilt R — · 91 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 91 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 91 results

91 of 91 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)869—LV
552d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
11/3/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
11/3/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)835—RV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
11/3/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1086—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt553d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt554d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)728—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)800—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
11/2/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1001—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
11/2/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)786—LV
4 scored polls554d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
11/1/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)541—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 555d old
    Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
10/31/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)673—LV
556d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
10/31/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)863—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt556d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
10/31/2024OnMessage, Inc. *3.36neutral(R+0.2)800—LV
556d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.36
    Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
10/31/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt556d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024TIPP Insights1.00R831—LV
no scored polls557d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1330—LV
bias D+2.4pt557d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/30/2024Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)600—LV
557d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/29/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R600—LV
no scored polls558d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/29/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1470—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/28/2024CNN/SSRS1.00—(D+4.4)736—LV
historical bias D+4.4pt559d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.4pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
10/27/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt560d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
10/24/2024Marquette University1.00—(R+1.3)753—LV
563d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 563d old
    Poll was fielded 563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
10/23/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
564d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 564d old
    Poll was fielded 564 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
10/22/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)800—LV
565d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/22/2024OnMessage, Inc. *3.36neutral(R+0.2)600—LV
565d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.36
    Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
10/21/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1108—LV
566d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 566d old
    Poll was fielded 566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
10/20/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1083—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt567d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
10/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)622—LV
569d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 569d old
    Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 45.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
10/18/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)600—LV
3 scored polls569d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 569d old
    Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
10/17/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)932—LV
570d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/16/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)787—LV
571d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 571d old
    Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/15/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)527—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 572d old
    Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
10/14/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)803—RV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 49.0pollarch
10/9/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt578d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 578d old
    Poll was fielded 578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
10/8/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
579d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/7/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
10/7/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1073—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
10/2/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)533—LV
585d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 585d old
    Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
9/30/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1083—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt587d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 587d old
    Poll was fielded 587 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
9/29/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt588d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
9/26/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)680—LV
591d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 591d old
    Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
9/26/2024Marquette University1.00—(R+1.3)798—LV
591d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 591d old
    Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
9/25/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1077—LV
592d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
9/25/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L411—LV
no scored polls592d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
9/23/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)788—LV
594d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 594d old
    Poll was fielded 594 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
9/20/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)800—LV
597d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
9/19/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)600—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
9/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
599d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
9/18/2024MassINC Polling Group1.00—800—LV
no scored polls599d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 52.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
9/18/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)600—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
9/17/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1312—RV
bias D+2.4pt600d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 600d old
    Poll was fielded 600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 52.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0pollarch
9/16/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1075—LV
601d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
9/14/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls603d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 603d old
    Poll was fielded 603 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
9/9/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)626—LV
608d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 608d old
    Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 39.0pollarch
9/8/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)638—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
9/6/2024co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)917—LV
historical bias R+5.4pt611d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
9/6/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)944—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt611d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
9/5/2024Marquette University1.00—(R+1.3)822—RV
612d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 612d old
    Poll was fielded 612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
9/3/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)900—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt614d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 614d old
    Poll was fielded 614 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
8/30/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1083—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt618d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 618d old
    Poll was fielded 618 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
8/29/2024CNN/SRSS1.00—976—LV
no scored polls619d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CNN
    Commissioned by CNN, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
8/28/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)672—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
8/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)850—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
8/21/2024BK Strategies1.00—600—LV
no scored polls627d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 627d old
    Poll was fielded 627 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
8/21/2024Fabrizio Ward1.00—400—LV
no scored polls627d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 627d old
    Poll was fielded 627 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
8/14/2024TIPP Insights1.00R1015—RV
no scored polls634d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 634d old
    Poll was fielded 634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
8/11/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)500—RV
3 scored polls637d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 637d old
    Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
8/8/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)661—RV
640d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 640d old
    Poll was fielded 640 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
8/2/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L404—LV
no scored polls646d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 646d old
    Poll was fielded 646 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
7/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1046—RV
bias D+2.6pt655d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
7/23/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)845—RV
656d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 656d old
    Poll was fielded 656 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
7/12/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)900—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt667d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
7/11/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)548—RV
668d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 668d old
    Poll was fielded 668 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 51.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
7/10/2024North Star Opinion Research1.00—600—LV
no scored polls669d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 669d old
    Poll was fielded 669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
7/2/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R490—RV
no scored polls677d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 677d old
    Poll was fielded 677 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 38.0pollarch
7/2/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls677d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 677d old
    Poll was fielded 677 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 45.0pollarch
7/1/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)593—LV
678d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 678d old
    Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 48.0pollarch
6/20/2024Marquette University1.00—(R+1.3)871—RV
689d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 689d old
    Poll was fielded 689 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 45.0 · Eric Hovde 38.0pollarch
6/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
691d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 691d old
    Poll was fielded 691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 44.0pollarch
5/31/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)338—RV
4 scored pollsn=338+4
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • n=338
    Sample size of 338 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.3pt — wider than typical.
  • 709d old
    Poll was fielded 709 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 43.0 · Eric Hovde 38.0pollarch
5/19/2024KAConsulting1.08R(R+3.6)600—RV
721d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 721d old
    Poll was fielded 721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
5/13/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L503—LV
no scored polls727d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 727d old
    Poll was fielded 727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 37.0pollarch
5/9/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)614—RV
731d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 731d old
    Poll was fielded 731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 49.0 · Eric Hovde 40.0pollarch
5/6/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1457—RV
734d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 734d old
    Poll was fielded 734 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
4/29/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 43.0pollarch
4/25/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1245—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt745d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Baldwin 48.0 · Eric Hovde 41.0pollarch
4/10/2024Marquette University1.00—(R+1.3)814—RV
760d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 760d old
    Poll was fielded 760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 29 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Baldwin 52.0 · Eric Hovde 47.0pollarch
3/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
783d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 783d old
    Poll was fielded 783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 45.0 · Eric Hovde 42.0pollarch
2/24/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
806d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 806d old
    Poll was fielded 806 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Baldwin 46.0 · Eric Hovde 39.0pollarch
5/25/2023Fabrizio, Lee & Associates1.00R500—LV
no scored polls1081d old+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1081d old
    Poll was fielded 1081 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Tammy Baldwin 47.0 · Mike Gallagher 46.0pollarch
5/25/2023Fabrizio, Lee & Associates1.00R500—LV
no scored polls1081d old+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1081d old
    Poll was fielded 1081 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Tammy Baldwin 40.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 35 total
Tammy Baldwin (D)
35 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez — labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present) [ 17 ]
  • Gretchen Whitmer — governor of Michigan (2019–present) [ 15 ]
Organizations / unions (18)
  • AFL-CIO — in AFL-CIO [ 20 ]
  • Actors' Equity Association — [ 18 ]
  • Association of Flight Attendants — [ 19 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 25 ]
  • Fair Wisconsin — PAC [ 27 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 28 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — Local 2150 [ 20 ]
  • J Street PAC — [ 30 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 31 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 32 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 33 ]
  • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare — [ 37 ]
  • National Women's Political Caucus — [ 38 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 39 ]
  • NextGen America — PAC [ 17 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 41 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 42 ]
  • United Auto Workers — [ 21 ]
Other (15)
  • 314 Action — [ 23 ]
  • Bend the Arc — [ 24 ]
  • EMILY's List — [ 1 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 26 ]
  • Gabby Giffords — AZ-08 (2007–2012) [ 14 ]
  • Giffords — [ 14 ]
  • Harry Dunn — former U.S. Capitol Police officer [ 16 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 29 ]
  • LGBTQ Victory Fund — [ 34 ]
  • LPAC — [ 35 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 36 ]
  • People for the American Way — [ 40 ]
  • Stonewall Democratic Club — [ 43 ]
  • Swing Left — [ 44 ]
  • United Steelworkers — District 7 [ 22 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-28
Total IE spending
$12.3M
For candidates
$2.8M
Against candidates
$9.6M
Latest filing: 12/28/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Eric Hovde (R)
$2.3M for · $6.5M against
Cash on hand
$135K
Total raised (cycle)
$32.0M
Total spent
$31.8M
Debts
$20.0M
Source: FEC
Tammy Baldwin (D)
$413K for · $3.0M against
Cash on hand
$25K
Total raised (cycle)
$50.2M
Total spent
$53.2M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Lean D Nov 4 — +3.5 —
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 8 — 0.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Tossup Sep 26 — 0.0 —
Elections Daily Lean D Aug 9 — +3.5 —
538 Lean D Oct 24 — +3.5 —
Inside Elections Tilt D Sep 26 — +1.3 —
RealClearPolitics Tossup Sep 15 — 0.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Sep 25 — +3.5 —
Split Ticket Lean D Oct 23 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (4 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 551d
  • 10/29/2024 Tilt D D+1.4 via polls held 23d
  • 10/6/2024 Lean D D+4.8 via polls held 90d
  • 7/8/2024 Likely D D+6.2 via polls