Races · Senate · 2024 · Wisconsin

Senate · class I · open seat

Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

← Washington Senate West Virginia Senate →

Tilt DD +1.6 forecast· 90 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
61% Baldwin (D)
39% Hovde (R)
Win probability
Tammy Baldwin61% (D)
Eric Hovde39% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.6
80% CIR+10.4 → D+13.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +1.6 · 80% CI R+10.4 → D+13.6
Actual result D+0.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 61% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.4 (10th pctile) to D+13.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 61% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.6

80% CI: R +10.4 → D +13.6 · win prob 61%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	90
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+0.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
364044485256BALDWIN 48.7HOVDE 47.4FEB '24JUN '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 90 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 3, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	869 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 48
Nov 2, 24	Research Co.+1For · Research Co.	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	48 · 47
Nov 2, 24	Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling	835 · RV	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	51 · 49
Nov 2, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,086 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 48
Nov 1, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	47 · 48
Nov 1, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	728 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 48
Nov 1, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	51 · 45
Nov 1, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	1,001 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	50 · 46
Nov 1, 24	Mainstreet Research/FAU+1	786 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +4.74 tracked	+0.6aligned	47 · 45
Oct 31, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	541 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 47
Oct 30, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	673 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 49
Oct 30, 24	YouGov	863 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	50 · 45
Oct 30, 24	OnMessage Inc.+1	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.25 tracked	-4.1r lean	48 · 47
Oct 30, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	54 · 46
Oct 29, 24	TIPP Insights+1	831 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	48 · 46
Oct 29, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,330 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	51 · 48
Oct 29, 24	Echelon Insights+1For · Echelon Insights	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	49 · 48
Oct 28, 24	SoCal Strategies	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.9d lean	49 · 48
Oct 28, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,470 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 48
Oct 27, 24	CNN/SSRS	736 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	49 · 47
Oct 26, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	48 · 49
Oct 23, 24	Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University	753 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.39 tracked	+2.8decoupled	49 · 47
Oct 22, 24	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 44
Oct 21, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 48
Oct 21, 24	OnMessage Inc.+1	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.25 tracked	-4.1r lean	48 · 49
Oct 20, 24	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,108 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	49 · 48
Oct 19, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,083 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 49
Oct 17, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	622 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	45 · 44
Oct 17, 24	The Bullfinch Group+1For · Bullfinch Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +6.33 tracked	+5.9d lean	49 · 45
Oct 16, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	932 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	49 · 46
Oct 15, 24	RMG Research	787 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	49 · 46
Oct 14, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	527 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 44
Oct 13, 24	Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling	803 · RV	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	50 · 49
Oct 8, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	48 · 47
Oct 7, 24	Emerson College+1For · Since the last round of Emerson	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 46
Oct 6, 24	Research Co.+1For · Research Co	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	47 · 43
Oct 6, 24	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,073 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 46
Oct 1, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	533 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	47 · 42
Sep 29, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,083 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 46
Sep 28, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	54 · 46
Sep 25, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	680 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	50 · 43
Sep 25, 24	Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University	798 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.39 tracked	+2.8decoupled	51 · 45
Sep 24, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,077 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 47
Sep 24, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	411 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	47 · 44
Sep 22, 24	RMG Research	788 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	50 · 44
Sep 19, 24	Remington Research Group+1	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	49 · 47
Sep 18, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	46 · 41
Sep 17, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 46
Sep 17, 24	MassINC Polling GroupFor · Wisconsin Watch	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-1.3aligned	52 · 44
Sep 17, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	50 · 43
Sep 16, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,312 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	52 · 46
Sep 15, 24	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,075 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 47
Sep 13, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	50 · 47
Sep 8, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	626 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	46 · 39
Sep 7, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	638 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 42
Sep 5, 24	co/efficientFor · co/efficient	917 · LV	R-LEAN	R +5.413 tracked	-3.4r lean	49 · 43
Sep 5, 24	CBS News/YouGov+2For · CBS News	944 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	51 · 43
Sep 4, 24	Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University	822 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.39 tracked	+2.8decoupled	51 · 45
Sep 2, 24	YouGov	900 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	49 · 41
Aug 29, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,083 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	50 · 44
Aug 28, 24	CNN/SRSS+1For · CNN	976 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.1d lean	51 · 45
Aug 27, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	672 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	46 · 41
Aug 27, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	850 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 48
Aug 20, 24	BK Strategies	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 44
Aug 20, 24	Fabrizio Ward	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 43
Aug 13, 24	TIPP Insights+1	1,015 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.7decoupled	50 · 42
Aug 10, 24	The Bullfinch Group+1	500 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +6.33 tracked	+5.9d lean	50 · 41
Aug 7, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	661 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	51 · 43
Aug 1, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	404 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	50 · 43
Jul 23, 24	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,046 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	54 · 43
Jul 22, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	845 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 43
Jul 11, 24	YouGov	900 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	50 · 43
Jul 10, 24	Public Policy Polling+1	548 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	51 · 43
Jul 9, 24	North Star Opinion Research	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 41
Jul 1, 24	SoCal StrategiesFor · Google Docs	490 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.9d lean	50 · 38
Jul 1, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	50 · 45
Jun 30, 24	Remington Research Group+1	593 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	48 · 48
Jun 19, 24	Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University	871 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.39 tracked	+2.8decoupled	45 · 38
Jun 17, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 44
May 30, 24	Mainstreet Research/FAU+2	338 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +4.74 tracked	+0.6aligned	43 · 38
May 18, 24	KAConsulting	600 · RV	R-LEAN	R +3.68 tracked	-2.3r lean	46 · 42
May 12, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	503 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	49 · 37
May 8, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	614 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	49 · 40
May 5, 24	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,457 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	54 · 42
Apr 28, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 43
Apr 24, 24	CBS News/YouGov+2For · CBS News	1,245 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	48 · 41
Apr 9, 24	Marquette UniversityFor · Marquette University	814 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.39 tracked	+2.8decoupled	52 · 47
Mar 17, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 42
Feb 23, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 39
May 24, 23	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+2For · Politico	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+3.9decoupled	40

· 90 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 35 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

35Baldwin · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Tammy Baldwin35 · 100%
Eric Hovde0 · 0%
Total35
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DTammy Baldwin35 endorsers

Most notable · Gretchen Whitmer · governor of Michigan (2019–present)

Organizations18

Other15

Elected officials2

Federal 1State 1Local 0

REric Hovde0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-28

Eric HovdeS2WI00268 ↗

Receipts

$32.0M

Disburse

$31.8M

Cash on hand

$135.4K

Debts

$20.0M

Top industries

Securities & investment$16.5K

Internet$13.2K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$310.7K

RDV CORP$39.6K

PARADIGM$21.3K

MILK SOURCE$19.8K

BARNARD CONSTRUCTION$16.5K

Tammy BaldwinS2WI00219 ↗

Receipts

$50.2M

Disburse

$53.2M

Cash on hand

$25.3K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$54.8K

Internet$49.3K

Education$40.8K

Top contributors

UW HEALTH$67.2K

SELF- EMPLOYED$49.5K

GOOGLE$49.3K

UW-MADISON$45.2K

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN$40.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$12.3M

D side

$7.0M · 56%

R side

$5.4M · 44%

Top spender

A BETTER WISCONSIN …

For / against split

For Baldwin $412.9K

Against Hovde $6.5M

Against Baldwin $3.0M

For Hovde $2.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
A BETTER WISCONSIN TOGETHER ACTION	D	$4.1M	33%	against Eric Hovde
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$3.5M	28%	against Tammy Baldwin
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$1.1M	9%	against Eric Hovde
THE WISCO PROJECT PAC	D	$661.1K	5%	against Eric Hovde
COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA PAC	R	$598.0K	5%	for Eric Hovde
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$305.9K	2%	for Tammy Baldwin
RED SENATE	R	$12.7K	0%	against Tammy Baldwin
DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING PROJECT	D	$9.3K	0%	for Tammy Baldwin

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D5

Tilt D1

Tossup3

CNalysis

Lean D

Nov 3

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 7

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Tossup

Sep 25

Elections Daily

Lean D

Aug 8

538

Lean D

Oct 23

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Sep 25

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

Sep 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Sep 24

Split Ticket

Lean D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified90 / 90deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-28

Endorsements35 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks