Races · Governor · 2026 · Connecticut
Governor · open seat
Ned Lamont vs Ryan Fazio
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+13.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.0 (10th pctile) to D+31.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 59/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 6.5pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
59
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement33
6.5pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution33 / 100
Measured6.5pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion0
0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution0 / 100
Measured0.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.0
80% CI: D +9.0 → D +31.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +14.4
80% CI R +23.4 → D +18.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +13.5
80% CI D +10.7 → D +16.2
CV MAE 2.17
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.5
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 44 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 93% · polls 49%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest University of New Hampshire
Ned Lamont
VoteHub49.0%
VoteHub
Polling average49.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt below our average
Ryan Fazio
VoteHub36.0%
VoteHub
Polling average36.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg35.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average35.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.1 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Ned Lamont 49.0%, Ryan Fazio 36.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 828 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 49 · 36 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 828 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 49 · 36 |
Endorsements · 45 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet23
22
Endorsements tracked
Ned Lamont23 · 51%
Ryan Fazio22 · 49%
Total45
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DNed Lamont23 endorsers
Most notable · William Tong · attorney general of Connecticut (2019–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 7State 2Local 4
Elected officials · 14
- William Tong · attorney general of Connecticut (2019–present)
- Jahana Hayes · CT-05 (2019–present)
- Jim Himes · CT-04 (2009–present)
- Joe Courtney · CT-02 (2007–present)
- John Larson · CT-01 (1999–present)
- Rosa DeLauro · CT-03 (1991–present)
- Arunan Arulampalam · mayor of Hartford (2024–present)
- Caroline Simmons · mayor of Stamford (2021–present)
- Chris Murphy · Connecticut (2013–present)
- Erick Russell · treasurer of Connecticut (2023–present)
- Joe Ganim · mayor of Bridgeport (1991–2003, 2015–present)
- Justin Elicker · mayor of New Haven (2020–present)
- Richard Blumenthal · Connecticut (2011–present)
- Sean Scanlon · Connecticut comptroller (2023–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Building Trades Unions · ding Trades Unions
- Carpenters · t Carpenters
- College Democrats · of Connecticut
- Democratic Party of Connecticut
- District Laborers' Council · ers' Council
- Giffords
- Teamsters · ut Teamsters
- UNITE HERE · Local 217
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Al Sharpton · civil rights activist
RRyan Fazio22 endorsers
Most notable · Stephen Harding · minority leader of the State Senate (2024–present) from SD-30 (2023–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 0State 20Local 1
Elected officials · 21
- Stephen Harding · minority leader of the State Senate (2024–present) from SD-30 (2023–present)
- Vincent Candelora · minority leader of the House of Representatives (2021–present) from HD-86 (2007–present)
- Betsy McCaughey · former lieutenant governor of New York (1995–1998) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Ron DeSantis · Governor of Florida (2019-Present)
- Eric Berthel · state senator from the 32nd district (2019–present)
- Heather Somers · state senator from the 18th district (2017–present)
- John Kissel · state senator from the 7th district (1993–present)
- Paul Cicarella · state senator from the 34th district (2021–present)
- Rob Sampson · state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)
- Carol Hall · state representative from the 59th district (2017–present)
- Erin Stewart · former mayor of New Britain (2013–2025) and former gubernatorial candidate
- Gale Mastrofrancesco · state representative from the 80th district (2019–present)
- Greg Howard · state representative from the 43rd district (2021–present)
- Irene Haines · state representative from the 34th district (2019–present)
- Joseph Canino · state representative from the 65th district (2025–present)
- Joseph Polletta · state representative from the 68th district (2017–present)
- Nicole Klarides-Ditria · state representative from the 105th district (2017–present)
- Patrick Callahan · state representative from the 108th district (2021–present)
- Seth Bronko · state representative from the 70th district (2023–present)
- Steve Weir · state representative from the 55th district (2022–present)
- Tom O'Dea · state representative, from the 125th district (2013-Present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Connecticut Young Republicans
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.09
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.09
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 9%
Neutral 91%
9% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets9%
Neutral91%
R-leaning outlets0%
9% of outlets classified by editorial lean
C
CT candidate just short of qualifying for campaign finance grant against Gov. Lamont
C
Opinion: Connecticut should put students first. Gov. Lamont can help.
N
Connecticut First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
C
Lamont Still Leads Elliott, Poll Shows
C
Ned Lamont leads Josh Elliott as primary gap narrows in Democratic governor's race, new poll shows
C
AFL-CIO endorses Lamont over Elliott in Democratic primary
W
Lamont targets ‘corporate welfare’ with new campaign promise
C
Ryan Fazio wants to cap Connecticut property tax increases
W
Can Ryan Fazio deliver property tax relief? He says he can
O
Impact CT: Poll Shows Lamont’s Advantage, Elliott’s Opening
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks