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Races · Senate · 2024 · Ohio
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Senate · class I · open seat

Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno

← New York SenatePennsylvania Senate →
Lean RR +3.1 forecast· 41 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
30% Brown (D)
70% Moreno (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +3.1 · 80% CI R+15.1 → D+8.9
Actual result R+3.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 70% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.1 (10th pctile) to D+8.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.1
80% CI: R +15.1 → D +8.9 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used41
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

25303540455055MORENO 48.2BROWN 46.6JUN '23FEB '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 41 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 3, 24AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel1,022 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean46 · 49
Nov 3, 24The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,095 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 48
Nov 1, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling900 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 48
Oct 31, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,254 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned46 · 47
Oct 29, 24Miami UniversityFor · Miami University857 · RVNEUTRAL——48 · 46
Oct 27, 24The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,127 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 47
Oct 27, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned49 · 51
Oct 23, 24J.L. PartnersFor · J.L. Partners997 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 52
Oct 23, 24University of Akron+1For · The University of Akron, Ohio1,241 · RVNEUTRAL——46 · 44
Oct 21, 24OnMessage Inc.+1600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 49
Oct 20, 24Bowling Green State University/YouGov1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.2d lean47 · 45
Oct 19, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned48 · 52
Oct 14, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult490 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned46 · 47
Oct 6, 24The Washington PostFor · The Washington Post1,002 · LVNEUTRALD +1.45 tracked+0.9aligned48 · 47
Oct 6, 24Marist College+1For · Marist College1,327 · LVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned50 · 48
Sep 26, 24Bowling Green State University/YouGov1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.2d lean49 · 45
Sep 25, 24New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times687 · LVD-LEAND +4.16 tracked+2.0aligned47 · 43
Sep 21, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned49 · 51
Sep 19, 24RMG Research781 · LVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean46 · 48
Sep 17, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,488 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned46 · 44
Sep 7, 24Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult1,558 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned46 · 43
Aug 31, 24SoCal Strategies600 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.9d lean50 · 45
Aug 16, 24Rasmussen Reports1,267 · LVNEUTRALR +1.9124 tracked-0.9aligned47 · 42
Aug 11, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned53 · 48
Jul 27, 24Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1600 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned46 · 42
Jun 30, 24Remington Research Group+1611 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned50 · 44
Jun 5, 24Marist College+1For · Marist College1,137 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned50 · 45
May 28, 24National Public Affairs801 · LVR-LEAN——54 · 46
Mar 14, 24Mainstreet Research/FAU+1818 · RVNEUTRALD +4.74 tracked+0.6aligned47 · 36
Mar 10, 24East Carolina University1,298 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 41
Mar 10, 24SurveyUSA+1533 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned43 · 37
Mar 9, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,300 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned39 · 34
Jan 24, 24Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling1,844 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned39 · 37
Nov 12, 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 32
Nov 1, 23Data for Progress+1597 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 44
Oct 18, 23Ohio Northern University668 · RVNEUTRAL——48 · 26
Oct 2, 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling438 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned35 · 33
Jul 25, 23Ohio Northern University675 · RVNEUTRAL——45 · 28
Jul 11, 23Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 41
Jun 23, 23East Carolina University805 · RVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 42
May 26, 23Causeway Solutions+1For · Washington Examiner1,639 · RVNEUTRAL——39
· 41 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 19 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
19Brown · 100%
DSherrod Brown19 endorsers
Most notable · AFL-CIO · hore AFL-CIO
Organizations12
Other7
RBernie Moreno0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31
Bernie MorenoS4OH00192 ↗
Receipts
$26.9M
Disburse
$26.4M
Cash on hand
$378.3K
Debts
$8.5M
Top industries
Securities & investment$112.7K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$430.8K
RDV CORPORATION$46.2K
BLACKSTONE$45.0K
GOLDMAN SACHS$34.7K
MARSHALL GOLDMAN SALES AND LEASING$33.0K
Sherrod BrownS6OH00163 ↗
Receipts
$96.5M
Disburse
$99.6M
Cash on hand
$394.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$78.8M
D side
$54.3M · 69%
R side
$24.4M · 31%
Top spender
WINSENATE
For / against split
For Brown $8.7M
Against Moreno $45.6M
Against Brown $8.4M
For Moreno $16.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WINSENATED$45.5M58%against Bernie Moreno
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$15.0M19%for Bernie Moreno
CFFE PACD$4.5M6%for Sherrod Brown
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$4.1M5%for Bernie Moreno
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUNDR$1.7M2%for Bernie Moreno
NEW AMERICAN JOBS FUNDD$1.2M2%for Sherrod Brown
COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA PACR$1.1M1%for Bernie Moreno
BUCKEYE VALUES PACR$750.0K1%against Sherrod Brown
FOR OUR FUTURED$691.0K1%for Sherrod Brown

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup6
Lean R1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Sep 24
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Tossup
Sep 26
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
538
Tossup
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 25
RealClearPolitics
Tossup
Sep 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3
Split Ticket
Tossup
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified40 / 41deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-31
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks