Pollster · 4 of 1053

Cygnal

GRADE A− R-LEAN
↗ official site ↗ Wikipedia
Polls scored
121
Mean error
3.8 pt
Signed bias
D+1.76
Aggregation weight
1.04
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
80
of 100 · tier · elite

Top-tier across most dimensions. Elite signal among the 121 polls scored.

Aggregator weight 52
Verification rate 91
Sample size median 85
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 92
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 72 graded races, Cygnal's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.0pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
5.7pp
N graded
72
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2026-alus-senate-2026-maus-governor-2024-nc
Recent activity
Total all time
121
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
3

Last poll 1/25/2026 (104d ago) · status slow

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2024 #18 / 26 5 4.64 pt D+4.64 pp
2022 #17 / 36 34 3.74 pt D+0.67 pp
2020 #12 / 20 5 6.03 pt D+6.03 pp
2018 #3 / 25 9 2.50 pt D+1.92 pp
Recent polls