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Pollster · 4 of 1769

Cygnal

GRADE BWEIGHT TIER T3NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed
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Polls scored
39
Mean error
4.1 pt
Signed bias
D+1.35
Aggregation weight
1.03

Pollster vs prediction market

From 179 race-polls · 6 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
53.5%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.2 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.9 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Cygnal's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
72
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight52
Verification rate70
Sample size median81
Citation rate81
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment91
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 76 graded races, Cygnal's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.2pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.2pp
Median delta
+1.5pp
Std-dev
5.6pp
N graded
76
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2026-alus-senate-2026-maus-governor-2024-nc
Recent activity
Total all time
179
Last 30d
4
Last 90d
17
Last 180d
22

Last poll 6/25/2026 (11d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
CycleRankPollsMAESigned bias
2024#18 / 2654.64 ptD+4.64 pp
2022#17 / 36343.74 ptD+0.67 pp
2020#12 / 2066.09 ptD+6.09 pp
2018#3 / 2592.50 ptD+1.92 pp
Recent polls