Races · Governor · 2026 · South Carolina

Governor · open seat

Jermaine Johnson vs Alan Wilson

← Rhode Island Governor South Dakota Governor →

Safe RR +23.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 15d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Johnson (D)
99% Wilson (R)
Win probability
Jermaine Johnson1% (D)
Alan Wilson99% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +23.1
80% CIR+34.1 → R+12.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +23.1 · 80% CI R+34.1 → R+12.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

29.5%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 10¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

102

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.1 (10th pctile) to R+12.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

This race was decisive in 29.5% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.

Uncertainty score: 86/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.

Forecast CI width73

22.0pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement25

5.0pp across models

Polling sparsity100

0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +23.1

80% CI: R +34.1 → R +12.1 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.57pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +18.1

80% CI R +29.9 → R +3.6

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +12.4

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 10¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢428 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 5Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in…”	7¢	93¢	+0¢	—	-3
Kalshi “South Carolina Governor winner?”	13¢	90¢	+2¢	$0K	+3

Polymarket sits 3¢ below consensus.

Endorsements · 47 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

19Johnson · 40%
Wilson · 60%28
Endorsements tracked
Jermaine Johnson19 · 40%
Alan Wilson28 · 60%
Total47
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RAlan Wilson28 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials25

Federal 5State 20Local 0

Celebrity2

Newspapers1

DJermaine Johnson19 endorsers

Most notable · Annie McDaniel · HD-41 (2018–present)

Elected officials18

Federal 1State 17Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R3

Cook Political Report

Safe R

May 20

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

RealClearPolitics

Likely R

Jun 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News

News volume · 30d

102 articles · building history

Net favorability

+0.17

Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.16 wk

Coverage tilt

D 17%

Neutral 83%

17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean