Races · Governor · 2026 · Rhode Island
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Aaron Guckian
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary September 9, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D · market gap 10pp
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+16.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+21.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+10.1 (10th pctile) to D+32.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.7% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 0.5pp/wk over the 90d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 81/100 (high). Key drivers: high poll dispersion (6.0pp std-dev); wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 99%, market says 89% — 10pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
81
High uncertainty
Main driver: high poll dispersion (6.0pp std-dev).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement41
8.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution41 / 100
Measured8.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion60
6.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution60 / 100
Measured6.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +21.1
80% CI: D +10.1 → D +32.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 8 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +19.1
80% CI R +20.8 → D +20.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +13.0
80% CI D +10.9 → D +15.1
CV MAE 1.65
consensusMarket-implied
D +13.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 91¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 58 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 91% · polls 33%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Jun 23, 2026 · latest University of New Hampshire
Helena Foulkes
VoteHub38.0%
VoteHub
Polling average38.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dan McKee
VoteHub27.0%
VoteHub
Polling average27.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Ken Block
VoteHub23.0%
VoteHub
Polling average23.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg22.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average22.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.6 pt above our average
Republican
VoteHub22.5%
VoteHub
Polling average22.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Jun 23, 2026): Helena Foulkes 38.0%, Dan McKee 27.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 8 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 27 · 23 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 38 · 22 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 38 |
| Jun 22 | University of New HampshireFor · University of New Hampshire | 664 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 27 |
| May 15 | Emerson College/WPRI-TVFor · WPRI-TV | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 39 |
| May 15 | Emerson College/WPRI-TVFor · WPRI-TV | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 33 |
| Apr 15 | Opinion DiagnosticsFor · Go Local Prov | 802 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -3.2r lean | 28 · 15 |
| Apr 15 | Opinion DiagnosticsFor · Go Local Prov | 802 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -3.2r lean | 33 · 16 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Aaron Guckian1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
IKen Block1 endorser
Most notable · Forward Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Forward Party
RAaron Guckian1 endorser
Most notable · Rhode Island Republican Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Rhode Island Republican Party
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.13
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.13
Week-over-weekshift −0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 13%
Neutral 87%
13% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets13%
Neutral87%
R-leaning outlets0%
13% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
N
Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
P
McKee narrows Foulkes’ lead in latest UNH poll
N
Rhode Island Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
'Gene Off Script' breaks down new poll showing McKee 20 points behind Foulkes
O
In new UNH poll, Foulkes holds a 20-point lead over McKee
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged4needs review
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks