Democratic primary · September 9, 2026
Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
50
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.1pp).
Forecast CI width50
15.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution50 / 100
Measured15.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes ( Democratic Party ) is running for election for Governor of Rhode Island . She declared candidacy for the Democratic primary…
2Dan McKeeDaniel J. McKee (born June 16, 1951) is an American politician and businessman serving, since 2021, as the 76th governor of Rhode Island . A…
3Gregory Stevens
4Gregerson
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 18 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Foulkes | McKee | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 337 · LV | 42 | 22 | +20 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 337 · LV | 42 | 22 | +20 |
| May 19, 26 | Emerson College | 565 · LV | 40 | 20 | +20 |
| May 15, 26 | Emerson College/WPRI-TV | 565 · LV | 40 | 20 | +20 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 328 · LV | 45 | 11 | +34 |
| Apr 21, 26 | Expedition Strategies | 337 · RV | 34 | 20 | +14 |
| Apr 19, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 327 · LV | 45 | 11 | +34 |
| Mar 28, 26 | Expedition Strategies | 800 · LV | 34 | 20 | +14 |
| Mar 23, 26 | DFER | 319 · LV | 24 | 15 | +9 |
| Feb 27, 26 | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 319 · LV | 24 | 15 | +9 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetDan McKee · 6Helena Foulkes · 4
DDan McKee6 endorsers
Most notable · Sabina Matos · lieutenant governor of Rhode Island (2021–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 0State 1Local 4
Elected officials · 5
- Sabina Matos · lieutenant governor of Rhode Island (2021–present)
- Charles Lombardi · mayor of North Providence (2007–present)
- Christopher Beauchamp · mayor of Woonsocket (2023–present)
- Don Grebien · mayor of Pawtucket (2011–present)
- Roberto DaSilva · mayor of East Providence (2019–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- United Nurses and Allied Professionals
DHelena Foulkes4 endorsers
Most notable · Peter Neronha · attorney general of Rhode Island (2019–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 0State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 3
- Peter Neronha · attorney general of Rhode Island (2019–present)
- Frank Picozzi · mayor of Warwick (2021–present) (Independent)
- Joseph Polisena Jr. · mayor of Johnston (2023–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- UNITE HERE · Local 26
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.13
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.13
Week-over-weekshift −0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 13%
Neutral 87%
13% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets13%
Neutral87%
R-leaning outlets0%
13% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
N
Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
P
McKee narrows Foulkes’ lead in latest UNH poll
N
Rhode Island Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
'Gene Off Script' breaks down new poll showing McKee 20 points behind Foulkes
O
In new UNH poll, Foulkes holds a 20-point lead over McKee
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 18deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks