Republican primary · September 9, 2026
Rhode Island Governor Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
74
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.7pp).
Forecast CI width72
21.7pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution72 / 100
Measured21.7pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Aaron GuckianAaron Guckian ( Republican Party ) is running for election for Governor of Rhode Island . He declared candidacy for the Republican primary s…
2Elaine Pelino
3Robert Raimondo
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Guckian | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Univ. of New Hampshire | 145 · LV | 17 | — |
| Jun 22 | University of New Hampshire | 145 · LV | 17 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetAaron Guckian · 1
RAaron Guckian1 endorser
Most notable · Rhode Island Republican Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Rhode Island Republican Party
In the news
31 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
31 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles31
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.13
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.13
Week-over-weekshift −0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 13%
Neutral 87%
13% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets13%
Neutral87%
R-leaning outlets0%
13% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
P
Election26: Foulkes would target middle-class growth as governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
N
Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
A
Rhode Island SEIU endorses Foulkes for governor
P
McKee narrows Foulkes’ lead in latest UNH poll
N
Rhode Island Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
'Gene Off Script' breaks down new poll showing McKee 20 points behind Foulkes
O
In new UNH poll, Foulkes holds a 20-point lead over McKee
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage31 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks