Races · Governor · 2024 · North Carolina
Governor · open seat
Josh Stein vs Mark Robinson
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 95 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 24 | AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel | 1,219 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 54 · 38 |
| Nov 1, 24 | AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel | 1,310 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 52 · 41 |
| Nov 1, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 860 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 52 · 40 |
| Nov 1, 24 | New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 1,010 · LV | D-LEAN | D +4.16 tracked | +2.0aligned | 56 · 38 |
| Oct 31, 24 | Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult | 1,056 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.230 tracked | +1.8aligned | 52 · 36 |
| Oct 30, 24 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 58 · 42 |
| Oct 29, 24 | AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel | 1,373 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 52 · 42 |
| Oct 28, 24 | AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel | 1,665 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 54 · 39 |
| Oct 28, 24 | East Carolina University | 1,250 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.88 tracked | -0.5aligned | 55 · 40 |
| Oct 27, 24 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 872 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 57 · 41 |
Endorsements · 45 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet22
23
Endorsements tracked
Josh Stein22 · 49%
Mark Robinson23 · 51%
Total45
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMark Robinson23 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials17
Federal 3State 13Local 0
Elected officials · 17
- Kamala Harris · Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)
- Andy Beshear · Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Bill Lee · Governor of Tennessee (2019–present)
- Brian Kemp · Governor of Georgia (2019–present)
- Glenn Youngkin · Governor of Virginia (2022–present)
- Henry McMaster · Governor of South Carolina (2017–present)
- Josh Shapiro · Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Pat McCrory · former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican)
- Wes Moore · Governor of Maryland (2023–present)
- Jim Davis · former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican)
- Richard Stevens · former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican)
- Thom Tillis · U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican)
- Charles Neely · former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican)
- Chuck McGrady · former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican)
- Dale Folwell · North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–2025) (Republican)
- Gabby Giffords · U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
- Garland Pierce · state representative from the 48th district (2005–present)
Other4
Other · 4
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Martin Luther King III · activist
- Republicans for National Renewal
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Republican Governors Association
DJosh Stein22 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Reives · minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 7State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Jim Hunt · former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)
- Roy Cooper · Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025)
- Jeff Jackson · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2025), Democratic nominee for Attorney General in 2024
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez · president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)
- Deborah Ross · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)
- Eva Clayton · former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003)
- G. K. Butterfield · former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022)
- Kathy Manning · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–2025)
- Valerie Foushee · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present)
- Wiley Nickel · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–2025)
Other8
Other · 8
- Robert Reives · minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)
- Burley Mitchell · former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999)
- End Citizens United
- Morgan · 50–60%
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
- Stein · 80–90%
- The Charlotte Observer · (Democratic primary only)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- AFL-CIO · arolina AFL-CIO
- League of Conservation Voters · ervation Voters
- NextGen America · PAC
- North Carolina Association of Educators
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Oct 14
- Elections Daily · Sep 18
- Split Ticket · Oct 18
Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 19
- Inside Elections · Sep 25
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 18
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Likely DElections Daily
Safe DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified95 / 95deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements45 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks