Races · Governor · 2024 · NC
Governor · open seat

Josh Stein vs Mark Robinson

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Tilt R — · 101 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 101 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 101 results

101 of 101 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1219—LV
552d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
11/2/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1310—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
11/2/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)860—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
11/2/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1010—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 56.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
11/1/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1056—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 555d old
    Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
10/31/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt556d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 58.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
10/30/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1373—LV
557d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
10/29/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1665—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,665
    Sample size of 1,665 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
10/29/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1250—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 55.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
10/28/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)872—LV
bias D+2.6pt559d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 57.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
10/28/2024CNN/SSRS1.00—(D+4.4)750—LV
historical bias D+4.4pt559d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.4pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 53.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
10/26/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)853—LV
561d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
10/23/2024UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)650—LV
564d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 564d old
    Poll was fielded 564 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
10/22/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)950—LV
565d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 51.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
10/22/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1226—LV
bias D+2.4pt565d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 55.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
10/21/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R702—LV
no scored polls566d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 566d old
    Poll was fielded 566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 55.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
10/20/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)1164—RV
567d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
10/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)843—LV
569d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 569d old
    Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 45.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
10/17/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1674—LV
570d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,674
    Sample size of 1,674 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
10/17/2024Elon University/YouGov1.00—800—RV
no scored polls570d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 31.0pollarch
10/15/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1072—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 572d old
    Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 32.0pollarch
10/14/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 49.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
10/14/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)620—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 45.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
10/14/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1031—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
10/8/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
579d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
10/5/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt582d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 582d old
    Poll was fielded 582 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 56.5 · Mark Robinson 43.5pollarch
10/2/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)753—LV
585d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 585d old
    Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 46.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
9/29/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)953—LV
588d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 53.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
9/29/2024The Washington Post1.92—(D+2.1)1001—LV
4 scored polls588d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.92
    Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
9/29/2024High Point University1.00—589—LV
no scored polls588d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 51.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
9/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)850—LV
589d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 589d old
    Poll was fielded 589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 33.0pollarch
9/27/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)780—LV
590d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 590d old
    Poll was fielded 590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 53.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
9/26/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1005—LV
591d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 591d old
    Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 33.0pollarch
9/25/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1173—LV
592d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
9/25/2024CNN/SSRS1.00—(D+4.4)931—LV
historical bias D+4.4pt592d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.4pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 53.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
9/25/2024BSG (R)/Global Strategy Group1.00L411—LV
no scored polls592d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 53.0 · Mark Robinson 33.0pollarch
9/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)787—LV
bias D+2.6pt593d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 56.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
9/24/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1507—RV
bias D+2.4pt593d old+4
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,507
    Sample size of 1,507 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
9/21/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)682—LV
596d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 596d old
    Poll was fielded 596 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 47.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
9/20/2024Meredith College1.00—802—LV
no scored polls597d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
9/18/2024Victory Insights0.55L(D+4.0)600—LV
599d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 47.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
9/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
599d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
9/18/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1314—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
9/17/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls600d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 600d old
    Poll was fielded 600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
9/16/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
601d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 46.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
9/13/2024Elon University/YouGov1.00—800—RV
no scored polls604d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 604d old
    Poll was fielded 604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Elon University
    Commissioned by Elon University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Josh Stein 49.0 · Mark Robinson 35.0pollarch
9/9/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)495—LV
608d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 608d old
    Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 33.0pollarch
9/8/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)940—LV
609d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 51.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
9/8/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1369—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 50.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
9/7/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)676—LV
610d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 610d old
    Poll was fielded 610 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 51.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
9/6/2024Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research1.00—692—RV
no scored polls611d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
8/28/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)920—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 47.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
8/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)775—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 47.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
8/28/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)812—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
8/27/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R612—LV
no scored polls621d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 621d old
    Poll was fielded 621 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 47.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
8/26/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1026—RV
bias D+2.6pt622d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 622d old
    Poll was fielded 622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 43.0pollarch
8/26/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt622d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 622d old
    Poll was fielded 622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 54.0 · Mark Robinson 46.0pollarch
8/21/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)1053—RV
627d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 627d old
    Poll was fielded 627 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
8/15/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)601—LV
633d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 633d old
    Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 45.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
8/14/2024The New York Times/Siena College1.00—655—RV
no scored polls634d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 634d old
    Poll was fielded 634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
8/9/2024YouGov Blue1.00L802—RV
no scored polls639d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 639d old
    Poll was fielded 639 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 46.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
8/5/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
643d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 643d old
    Poll was fielded 643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 43.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
8/3/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)714—LV
645d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 645d old
    Poll was fielded 645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 43.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0pollarch
7/24/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)586—LV
655d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 38.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
7/20/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)573—RV
659d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 659d old
    Poll was fielded 659 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
7/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)461—LV
661d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 661d old
    Poll was fielded 661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 37.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
7/8/2024Expedition Strategies1.00L284—LV
no scored pollsn=284+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=284
    Sample size of 284 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.8pt — wider than typical.
  • 671d old
    Poll was fielded 671 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 48.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
6/11/2024Spry Strategies1.00R600—LV
no scored polls698d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 698d old
    Poll was fielded 698 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Mark Robinson 43.0pollarch
6/3/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1332—LV
706d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 706d old
    Poll was fielded 706 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 43.0pollarch
6/2/2024North Star Opinion Research1.00—600—LV
no scored polls707d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 707d old
    Poll was fielded 707 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 44.0pollarch
5/18/2024Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)835—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt722d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 722d old
    Poll was fielded 722 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 43.0pollarch
5/9/2024High Point University1.00—804—RV
no scored polls731d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 731d old
    Poll was fielded 731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 34.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
5/5/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
735d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 735d old
    Poll was fielded 735 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Mark Robinson 39.0pollarch
4/29/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Josh Stein 41.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
4/28/2024Meeting Street Insights1.00R500—RV
no scored polls742d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 742d old
    Poll was fielded 742 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 37.0pollarch
4/17/2024Meredith College1.00—711—LV
no scored polls753d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 753d old
    Poll was fielded 753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 45.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
4/8/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
762d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 762d old
    Poll was fielded 762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Carolina Journal
    Commissioned by Carolina Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 38.0 · Mark Robinson 40.0pollarch
4/8/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1401—RV
762d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 762d old
    Poll was fielded 762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 52.0 · Mark Robinson 44.0pollarch
3/30/2024High Point University1.00—829—RV
no scored polls771d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 771d old
    Poll was fielded 771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 37.0 · Mark Robinson 34.0pollarch
3/14/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1197—RV
bias D+2.4pt787d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 787d old
    Poll was fielded 787 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 49.0 · Mark Robinson 47.0pollarch
3/9/2024SurveyUSA1.00—(D+1.5)598—LV
792d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 792d old
    Poll was fielded 792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
3/7/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
794d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 794d old
    Poll was fielded 794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Mark Robinson 44.0pollarch
2/19/2024Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)1622—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt811d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 811d old
    Poll was fielded 811 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,622
    Sample size of 1,622 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 43.0pollarch
2/12/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1207—RV
818d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 818d old
    Poll was fielded 818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 41.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
2/12/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1207—RV
818d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 818d old
    Poll was fielded 818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Dale Folwell 31.0pollarch
2/12/2024East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)1207—RV
818d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 818d old
    Poll was fielded 818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 40.0 · Bill Graham 35.0pollarch
1/31/2024Meredith College1.00—760—RV
no scored polls830d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 830d old
    Poll was fielded 830 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Mark Robinson 35.0pollarch
12/1/2023East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)915—RV
891d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 891d old
    Poll was fielded 891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 40.0 · Mark Robinson 44.0pollarch
12/1/2023East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)915—RV
891d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 891d old
    Poll was fielded 891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 40.0 · Dale Folwell 38.0pollarch
12/1/2023East Carolina University1.63—(D+1.8)915—RV
891d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 891d old
    Poll was fielded 891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Bill Graham 39.0pollarch
11/5/2023Meredith College1.00—755—RV
no scored polls917d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 917d old
    Poll was fielded 917 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Josh Stein 38.0 · Mark Robinson 36.0pollarch
9/5/2023Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)914—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt978d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 978d old
    Poll was fielded 978 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 38.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
6/7/2023Opinion Diagnostics1.00R902—LV
no scored polls1068d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1068d old
    Poll was fielded 1068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 38.0 · Mark Robinson 41.0pollarch
5/23/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)610—LV
1083d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1083d old
    Poll was fielded 1083 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 41.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
5/23/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)610—LV
1083d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1083d old
    Poll was fielded 1083 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Dale Folwell 34.0pollarch
5/23/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)610—LV
1083d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1083d old
    Poll was fielded 1083 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Josh Stein 39.0 · Mark Walker 37.0pollarch
5/8/2023Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)802—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt1098d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1098d old
    Poll was fielded 1098 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 43.0 · Mark Robinson 46.0pollarch
3/3/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)704—RV
1164d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 1164d old
    Poll was fielded 1164 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 44.0pollarch
1/12/2023Differentiator Data1.00R500—LV
no scored polls1214d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1214d old
    Poll was fielded 1214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
10/8/2022Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)606—RV
1310d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 1310d old
    Poll was fielded 1310 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Josh Stein 44.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0pollarch
5/16/2022Meeting Street Insights1.00R500—LV
no scored polls1455d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1455d old
    Poll was fielded 1455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Josh Stein 42.0 · Mark Robinson 48.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 45 total
Josh Stein (D)
22 endorsements · source
Elected officials (10)
  • Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez — president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present) [ 23 ]
  • Deborah Ross — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present) [ 20 ]
  • Eva Clayton — former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003) [ 17 ]
  • G. K. Butterfield — former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022) [ 17 ]
  • Jeff Jackson — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–2025), Democratic nominee for Attorney General in 2024 [ 15 ]
  • Jim Hunt — former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001) [ 16 ]
  • Kathy Manning — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–2025) [ 19 ]
  • Roy Cooper — Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025) [ 21 ]
  • Valerie Foushee — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present) [ 18 ]
  • Wiley Nickel — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–2025) [ 15 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • AFL-CIO — arolina AFL-CIO [ 24 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — ervation Voters [ 27 ]
  • NextGen America — PAC [ 23 ]
  • North Carolina Association of Educators — [ 25 ]
Other (8)
  • Burley Mitchell — former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999) [ 22 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 26 ]
  • Morgan — 50–60%
  • Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 28 ]
  • Robert Reives — minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present) [ 16 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 29 ]
  • Stein — 80–90%
  • The Charlotte Observer — [ 30 ] (Democratic primary only)
Mark Robinson (R)
23 endorsements · source
Elected officials (17)
  • Andy Beshear — Governor of Kentucky (2019–present) [ 87 ]
  • Bill Lee — Governor of Tennessee (2019–present) [ 96 ]
  • Brian Kemp — Governor of Georgia (2019–present) [ 95 ]
  • Charles Neely — former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican) [ 90 ]
  • Chuck McGrady — former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican) [ 90 ]
  • Dale Folwell — North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–2025) (Republican) [ 101 ]
  • Gabby Giffords — U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012) [ 86 ]
  • Garland Pierce — state representative from the 48th district (2005–present) [ 91 ]
  • Glenn Youngkin — Governor of Virginia (2022–present) [ 98 ]
  • Henry McMaster — Governor of South Carolina (2017–present) [ 97 ]
  • Jim Davis — former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican) [ 90 ]
  • Josh Shapiro — Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present) [ 89 ]
  • Kamala Harris — Vice President of the United States (2021–2025) [ 85 ]
  • Pat McCrory — former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican) [ 102 ]
  • Richard Stevens — former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican) [ 90 ]
  • Thom Tillis — U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican) [ 102 ]
  • Wes Moore — Governor of Maryland (2023–present) [ 88 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 93 ]
  • Republican Governors Association — [ 100 ]
Other (4)
  • Giffords — [ 86 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 92 ]
  • Martin Luther King III — activist [ 94 ]
  • Republicans for National Renewal — [ 99 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Safe D Oct 15 — +18.0 —
The Cook Political Report Likely D Sep 20 — +9.0 —
Elections Daily Safe D Sep 19 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Likely D Sep 26 — +9.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Sep 19 — +9.0 —
Split Ticket Safe D Oct 19 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi