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Races · Governor · 2024 · North Carolina
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Governor · open seat

Josh Stein vs Mark Robinson

Tilt R polls· 95 polls · 0 markets
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Polling average

30354045505560STEIN 52.2ROBINSON 39.5MAY '22AUG '23NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 95 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 3, 24AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel1,219 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean54 · 38
Nov 1, 24AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel1,310 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean52 · 41
Nov 1, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling860 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 40
Nov 1, 24New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times1,010 · LVD-LEAND +4.16 tracked+2.0aligned56 · 38
Oct 31, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,056 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned52 · 36
Oct 30, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned58 · 42
Oct 29, 24AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel1,373 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean52 · 42
Oct 28, 24AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel1,665 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean54 · 39
Oct 28, 24East Carolina University1,250 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned55 · 40
Oct 27, 24Fox NewsFor · Fox News872 · LVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean57 · 41
Oct 27, 24CNN/SSRS750 · LVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean53 · 37
Oct 25, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA853 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned52 · 37
Oct 22, 24UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov650 · LVD-LEAND +3.46 tracked+3.0d lean48 · 36
Oct 21, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling950 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 39
Oct 21, 24Marist College+1For · Marist College1,226 · LVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned55 · 41
Oct 20, 24SoCal Strategies702 · LVNEUTRAL+2.9d lean55 · 40
Oct 19, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,164 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned50 · 34
Oct 17, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies843 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned45 · 37
Oct 16, 24AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel1,674 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean54 · 39
Oct 16, 24Elon University/YouGov800 · RVNEUTRAL52 · 31
Oct 14, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,072 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned54 · 32
Oct 13, 24Cygnal+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned49 · 36
Oct 13, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies620 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned45 · 38
Oct 13, 24Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,031 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned54 · 42
Oct 7, 24Emerson College+1For · Since the last round of Emerson1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 34
Oct 4, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned57 · 44
Oct 1, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies753 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned46 · 36
Sep 28, 24Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University953 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned53 · 41
Sep 28, 24The Washington PostFor · The Washington Post1,001 · LVNEUTRALD +1.45 tracked+0.9aligned54 · 38
Sep 28, 24High Point University589 · LVNEUTRAL51 · 34
Sep 27, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling850 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 33
Sep 26, 24RMG Research780 · LVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean53 · 38
Sep 25, 24East Carolina University1,005 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned50 · 33
Sep 24, 24AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel1,173 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean54 · 38
Sep 24, 24CNN/SSRS931 · LVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean53 · 36
Sep 24, 24BSG (R)/Global Strategy GroupFor · Cook Political Report411 · LVD-LEAN53 · 33
Sep 23, 24Fox NewsFor · Fox News787 · LVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean56 · 41
Sep 23, 24Marist College+2For · Marist College1,507 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned54 · 42
Sep 20, 24New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times682 · LVD-LEAND +4.16 tracked+2.0aligned47 · 37
Sep 19, 24Meredith College802 · LVNEUTRAL50 · 40
Sep 17, 24Victory Insights600 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked+1.0noisy47 · 42
Sep 17, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 40
Sep 17, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,314 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 37
Sep 16, 24Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1600 · LVD-LEAN+0.8aligned52 · 42
Sep 15, 24Cygnal+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned46 · 39
Sep 12, 24Elon University/YouGov+1For · Elon University800 · RVNEUTRAL49 · 35
Sep 8, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies495 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned42 · 33
Sep 7, 24Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University940 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned51 · 41
Sep 7, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult1,369 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 37
Sep 6, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA676 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned51 · 37
Sep 5, 24Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research692 · RVNEUTRAL48 · 38
Aug 27, 24East Carolina University920 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned47 · 41
Aug 27, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling775 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 41
Aug 27, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies812 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned44 · 40
Aug 26, 24SoCal Strategies612 · LVNEUTRAL+2.9d lean47 · 37
Aug 25, 24Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,026 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean54 · 43
Aug 25, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned54 · 46
Aug 20, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,053 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 34
Aug 14, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies601 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned45 · 39
Aug 13, 24The New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times655 · RVNEUTRAL48 · 38
Aug 8, 24YouGov Blue802 · RVNEUTRAL46 · 36
Aug 4, 24Cygnal+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 38
Aug 2, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies714 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned43 · 38
Jul 23, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies586 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned38 · 34
Jul 19, 24Public Policy Polling+1573 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 42
Jul 17, 24Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies461 · LVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned37 · 36
Jul 7, 24Expedition Strategies+1284 · LVNEUTRAL48 · 41
Jun 10, 24Spry Strategies+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRAL39 · 43
Jun 2, 24East Carolina University1,332 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 43
Jun 1, 24North Star Opinion Research600 · LVNEUTRAL42 · 44
May 17, 24Change Research+1For · Carolina Forward835 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy44 · 43
May 8, 24High Point University804 · RVNEUTRAL34 · 39
May 4, 24Cygnal+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned39 · 39
Apr 28, 24Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 42
Apr 27, 24Meeting Street InsightsFor · Carolina Leader500 · RVNEUTRAL44 · 37
Apr 16, 24Meredith College711 · LVNEUTRAL45 · 36
Apr 7, 24Cygnal+1For · Carolina Journal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned38 · 40
Apr 7, 24Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,401 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned52 · 44
Mar 29, 24High Point University829 · RVNEUTRAL37 · 34
Mar 13, 24Marist College+1For · Marist College1,197 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned49 · 47
Mar 8, 24SurveyUSA+1For · WRAL.com598 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 42
Mar 6, 24Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned39 · 44
Feb 18, 24Change Research+2For · Carolina Forward1,622 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy42 · 43
Feb 11, 24East Carolina University1,207 · RVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned41 · 41
Jan 30, 24Meredith College760 · RVNEUTRAL39 · 35
Nov 30, 23East Carolina University915 · RVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned40 · 44
Nov 4, 23Meredith College755 · RVNEUTRAL38 · 36
Sep 4, 23Change Research+1For · Carolina Forward914 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy38 · 42
Jun 6, 23Opinion Diagnostics902 · LVNEUTRAL-3.2r lean38 · 41
May 22, 23Cygnal610 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned41 · 42
May 7, 23Change Research+1802 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy43 · 46
Mar 2, 23Public Policy Polling+1For · Carolina Forward704 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy42 · 44
Jan 11, 23Differentiator DataFor · nc values500 · LVR-LEAN42 · 42
Oct 7, 22Public Policy Polling+1For · Carolina Forward606 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy44 · 42
May 15, 22Meeting Street Insights500 · LVNEUTRAL42 · 48
· 95 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 45 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
22Stein · 49%
Robinson · 51%23
RMark Robinson23 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)
Elected officials17
Federal 3State 13Local 0
Other4
Organizations2
DJosh Stein22 endorsers
Most notable · Robert Reives · minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 7State 3Local 0
Other8
Organizations4

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
Likely D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Oct 14
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Sep 19
Elections Daily
Safe D
Sep 18
Inside Elections
Likely D
Sep 25
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Sep 18
Split Ticket
Safe D
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 2, 2026tilt-rpvi
Verification trail
Polls verified95 / 95deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingsno filings yet
Endorsements45 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks