Races · Governor · 2026 · Colorado
Governor · open seat
Phil Weiser vs Victor Marx
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 92%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+30.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement64
12.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution64 / 100
Measured12.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.9
80% CI: D +8.9 → D +30.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI R +28.3 → D +17.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.2
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet14
5
Endorsements tracked
Phil Weiser14 · 74%
Victor Marx5 · 26%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPhil Weiser14 endorsers
Most notable · Terrance Carroll · former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2009–2011) from HD-07 (2003–2011)
Elected officials10
Federal 4State 5Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Terrance Carroll · former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (2009–2011) from HD-07 (2003–2011)
- Roy Romer · former governor of Colorado (1987–1999)
- Javier Mabrey · HD-01 (2023–present)
- Brandon Shaffer · former president of the Colorado Senate (2009–2013) from SD-17 (2005–2013)
- Morgan Carroll · former president of the Colorado Senate (2015–2017) from SD-29 (2013–2019)
- David Skaggs · former CO-02 (1987–1999)
- Ed Perlmutter · former CO-07 (2007–2023)
- Federico Peña · former secretary of energy (1997–1998)
- Jennifer Arndt · former mayor of Fort Collins (2021–2026)
- Tim Wirth · former Colorado (1987–1993)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Indivisible · Colorado
- UFCW · Local 7
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Dottie Lamm · former first lady of Colorado (1975–1987)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Durango Herald
RVictor Marx5 endorsers
Most notable · Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Derek Wolfe · former NFL player
- Ted Nugent · rock musician
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2021–present)
- Heidi Ganahl · former member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents from the at-large district (2017–2023) and 2022 gubernatorial nominee
Other1
Other · 1
- Michael Flynn · former national security advisor (2017)
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
10 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
10 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles10
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.10
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.10
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 10%
Neutral 90%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets10%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets0%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Colorado’s Primary for Governor Pivots to Trump and Who Will Fight Him
S
POLL: Weiser pulls ahead of Bennet in Colorado Democratic primary for governor
C
Phil Weiser leading Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, internal poll finds
C
Phil Weiser leads Michael Bennet in new poll, with Colorado’s Democratic primary for governor coming down to undecided voters
S
What the polls say about the primary races for Colorado governor
P
What the polls say about the primary races for Colorado governor
C
These Colorado candidates are pitching primary voters on flipping seats in November
C
Weiser leads Bennet in new Colorado governor poll as primary nears
P
How Republican candidates for Colorado governor say they’ll bridge the urban-rural divide
R
Colorado candidates for governor outline plans at 'Women Decide' forum
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements44 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage10 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks