Races · Governor · 2026 · AL

Governor · open seat

Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville

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Safe R R +19.0 · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 4 markets Last poll 178d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

safe-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +35.3

80% CI: R +52.8 → R +17.8 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +25.8

80% CI R +28.5 → R +20.8

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +20.7

80% CI R +25.3 → R +16.2

CV MAE 3.55

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +35.3

80% CI R +52.8 → R +17.8

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:1 of 1 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/13/2025	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	605	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned178d old+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 178d old Poll was fielded 178 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tommy Tuberville 53.0 · Doug Jones 34.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 30 total

Doug Jones (D)

8 endorsements · source

Elected officials (2)

Bobby Singleton — minority leader of the Alabama Senate (2019–present) from the 24th district (2005–present) [ 54 ]
Phillip Ensler — state representative from the 74th district (2022–present) and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2026 [ 54 ]

Organizations / unions (2)

Alabama Cannabis Coalition — [ 51 ]
Jaime Harrison — former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025) [ 50 ]

Individuals / celebrities (1)

Jason Isbell — singer-songwriter [ 55 ]

Other (3)

Anthony Daniels — minority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives (2017–present) from the 53rd district (2014–present) [ 52 ]
Ron Sparks — former commissioner of agriculture and industries (2003–2011) and nominee for the position in 2026 [ 53 ]
Terri Sewell — AL-07 (2011–present) [ 52 ]

Tommy Tuberville (R)

22 endorsements · source

Elected officials (7)

A. J. McCarron — former professional football player and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2026 [ 24 ]
Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 15 ]
Garlan Gudger — president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate (2025–present) from the 4th district (2018–present) [ 20 ]
Jere Beasley — lieutenant governor of Alabama (1971–1979) and acting governor of Alabama (1972) (Democratic) [ 18 ]
Mike Braun — governor of Indiana (2025–present) [ 19 ]
Nathaniel Ledbetter — speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives (2023–present) from the 24th district (2014–present) (previously endorsed Ainsworth) [ 21 ]
Will Ainsworth — lieutenant governor of Alabama (2019–present) [ 6 ]

Organizations / unions (6)

Alabama Cannabis Coalition — [ 14 ]
Alabama Farmers Federation — [ 26 ]
Alabama Forestry Association — [ 27 ]
Alabama Realtors PAC — [ 28 ]
Business Council of Alabama — [ 30 ]
National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund — [ 34 ]

Individuals / celebrities (1)

Taylor Hicks — singer [ 23 ]

Other (8)

Associated Builders and Contractors — Alabama [ 29 ]
Club for Growth — [ 31 ]
Electric Cooperatives of Alabama — [ 32 ]
Katie Britt — Alabama (2023–present) [ 16 ]
Manufacture Alabama — [ 33 ]
Republicans for National Renewal — [ 25 ]
Rick Scott — Florida (2019–present) [ 17 ]
Scott Stadthagen — majority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives (2023–present) from the 9th district (2019–present) [ 22 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Sep 11	-19.0	-18.0	-1.0
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 28	-19.0	-18.0	-1.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Sep 4	-19.0	-18.0	-1.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 6 months ago (11/13/2025) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)