Races · Governor · 2026 · Alabama
Governor · open seat
Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.8 (10th pctile) to R+17.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 29.3% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Uncertainty score: 96/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (22.0pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
96
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement50
10.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution50 / 100
Measured10.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.8
80% CI: R +39.8 → R +17.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +30.9
80% CI R +33.2 → R +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +20.9
80% CI R +25.5 → R +16.2
CV MAE 3.61
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 9¢3 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 24 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 9% · polls 33%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Nov 13, 2025 · latest Cygnal
Tommy Tuberville
VoteHub53.0%
VoteHub
Polling average53.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg53.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average53.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt below our average
Doug Jones
VoteHub34.0%
VoteHub
Polling average34.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg33.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average33.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Nov 13, 2025): Tommy Tuberville 53.0%, Doug Jones 34.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | Cygnal+1For · Internal R-aligned | 605 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 34 · 53 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet10
22
Endorsements tracked
Doug Jones10 · 31%
Tommy Tuberville22 · 69%
Total32
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTommy Tuberville22 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- Alabama Cannabis Coalition
- Alabama Farmers Federation
- Alabama Forestry Association
- Alabama Realtors PAC
- Associated Builders and Contractors · Alabama
- Business Council of Alabama
- Club for Growth
- Electric Cooperatives of Alabama
- Manufacture Alabama
- National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund
- Republicans for National Renewal
Elected officials9
Federal 3State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Scott Stadthagen · majority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives (2023–present) HD-09 (2019–present)
- Nathaniel Ledbetter · speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives (2023–present) from HD-24 (2014–present)
- Jere Beasley · lieutenant governor of Alabama (1971–1979) and acting governor of Alabama (1972) (Democratic)
- Mike Braun · governor of Indiana (2025–present)
- Will Ainsworth · lieutenant governor of Alabama (2019–present)
- Garlan Gudger · president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate (2025–present) from SD-04 district (2018–present)
- Katie Britt · Alabama (2023–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- A. J. McCarron · former professional football player and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2026
- Taylor Hicks · singer
DDoug Jones10 endorsers
Most notable · Anthony Daniels · minority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives (2017–present) from HD-53 (2014–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 1State 4Local 1
Elected officials · 6
- Anthony Daniels · minority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives (2017–present) from HD-53 (2014–present)
- Bobby Singleton · minority leader of the Alabama Senate (2019–present) from SD-24 (2005–present)
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Phillip Ensler · HD-74 (2022–present) and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2026
- Terri Sewell · AL-07 (2011–present)
- Ron Sparks · former commissioner of agriculture and industries (2003–2011) and nominee for the position in 2026
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
- Alabama Cannabis Coalition
- Democratic Governors Association
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jason Isbell · singer-songwriter
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Tommy Tuberville
Receipts
$12.1M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Doug Jones
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$607.4K
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested3 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks