Races · Governor · 2026 · IA
Governor · open seat

Rob Sand vs Randy Feenstra

← HI Governor ID Governor →
Likely D D +10.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 4 markets Last poll 31d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 79% R · market gap 45pp

likely-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +11.0
80% CI: R +28.5 → D +6.5 · win prob 21%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +3.2
80% CI R +2.4 → D +6.7
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +6.6
80% CI D +4.3 → D +9.0
CV MAE 1.84
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +11.0
80% CI R +28.5 → D +6.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
4/9/2026Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)377±6.6LV
n=377high variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • n=377
    Sample size of 377 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Randy Feenstra 39.0 · Rob Sand 51.0pollarch
3/16/2026GBAO1.00L1200±2.8LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Randy Feenstra 42.0 · Rob Sand 50.0pollarch
10/13/2025Z to A Research1.00L1351±2.7LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 209d old
    Poll was fielded 209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Randy Feenstra 43.0 · Rob Sand 45.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 40 total
Randy Feenstra (R)
32 endorsements · source
Elected officials (8)
  • Bob Vander Plaats — president of The Family Leader [ 24 ]
  • Chris Cournoyer — lieutenant governor of Iowa (2024–present) [ 13 ]
  • John Wills — speaker pro tempore of the Iowa House of Representatives (2020–present) from HD-10 (2015–present) [ 29 ]
  • Ken Rozenboom — president pro tempore of the Iowa Senate (2025–present) from SD-19 (2013–present) [ 29 ]
  • Kim Reynolds — governor of Iowa (2017–present) [ 39 ]
  • Matt Schultz — former secretary of state of Iowa (2011–2015) [ 28 ]
  • Roby Smith — state treasurer of Iowa (2023–present) [ 27 ]
  • Terry Branstad — former ambassador to China (2017–2020) and former governor of Iowa (1983–1999, 2011–2017) [ 25 ] (previously endorsed Bousselot) [ 26 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Steve Deace — conservative talk show host [ 24 ]
Other (23)
  • Anne Osmundson — former HD-64 (2019–2025) [ 33 ]
  • Brent Siegrist — HD-19 (2021–present), HD-84 (1985–2003) [ 29 ]
  • Carrie Koelker — SD-33 (2019–present) [ 29 ]
  • Charlie McClintock — SD-42 (2023–present) [ 35 ]
  • Craig Johnson — HD-67 (2023–present) [ 30 ]
  • Dean Fisher — HD-53 (2013–present) [ 34 ]
  • Dennis Guth — SD-28 (2013–present) [ 33 ]
  • Doug Campbell — SD-30 (2025–present) [ 33 ]
  • Henry Stone — HD-09 (2023–present) [ 37 ]
  • Jim Carlin — former SD-03 (2017–2023) [ 33 ]
  • Joni Ernst — Iowa (2015–present) [ 13 ]
  • Judd Lawler — HD-91 (2025–present) [ 33 ]
  • Kevin Alons — SD-07 (2023–present) [ 33 ]
  • Luana Stoltenberg — former HD-81 (2023–2025) [ 33 ]
  • Make America Healthy Again — Action [ 32 ]
  • Mariannette Miller-Meeks — IA-01 (2021–present) [ 13 ]
  • Mark Cisneros — HD-96 (2021–present) [ 33 ]
  • Mike Pike — SD-20 (2025–present) [ 36 ]
  • Sam Clovis — former senior White House advisor to the Department of Agriculture (2017–2018) [ 33 ]
  • Sandy Salmon — SD-29 (2023–present) [ 33 ]
  • Steve King — former IA-04 (2003–2021) [ 31 ]
  • The Family Leader — [ 38 ]
  • [ 29 ] — er state legislators [ 29 ]
Rob Sand (D)
8 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Tim Walz — governor of Minnesota (2019–present) [ 44 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • AFL-CIO — deration of Labor, AFL-CIO [ 46 ]
  • AFSCME — Council 61 [ 45 ]
  • NEA — a State Education Association, NEA [ 47 ]
  • United Auto Workers — [ 50 ]
Other (3)
  • End Citizens United — [ 51 ]
  • LIUNA — 177 [ 48 ]
  • SEIU — Healthcare Minnesota & Iowa [ 49 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Apr 9 +10.0 0.0 +10.0
Inside Elections Lean R Mar 26 +10.0 -3.5 +13.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Sep 4 +10.0 -3.5 +13.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 4 weeks ago (4/9/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D D+10.0 via polls