Races · Governor · 2026 · HI
Governor · open seat
Hawaii Governor
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe D · model 97% D
safe-d · high-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +25.7
80% CI: D +8.2 → D +43.2 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +13.6
80% CI R +42.4 → D +30.4
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +25.7
80% CI D +8.2 → D +43.2
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Sep 11 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Aug 28 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Sep 4 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Safe D via markets
In the news
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Neal Milner : The Governor And The Auditor Are Fighting . That Greatcivilbeat.org · 1d ago -
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State senator says wrongful conviction settlements fall short of law intenthawaiinewsnow.com · 1d ago - Hawaii Legislature passes first - in - nation bill targeting Citizens United rulinghawaiitelegraph.com · 1d ago
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California homelessness crisis and possible solutions explained – Oroville Mercury - Registerorovillemr.com · 1d ago -
New Hawaii film tax credits aim to keep local talent homekitv.com · 2d ago -
- US NAVY : Drinking Water in Hawaii to become poisoned by fuel ?eturbonews.com · 2d ago
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Asiwaju Tunde Badmus : When Osogbo river becomes an ocean , by Tunde Odesolatheeagleonline.com.ng · 2d ago -
Susan Young Browne 108th Birthday : Delaware State Oldest Livingthegrio.com · 2d ago
News links surfaced via GDELT (a multi-source global news index). External links open in a new tab; we don't rehost article content.