Pollster · 672 of 1769
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Polls scored
17
Mean error
4.4 pt
Signed bias
D+1.39
Aggregation weight
1.20
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components64
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 16 graded races, NBC/WSJ/Marist's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.7pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.7pp
Median delta
+0.5pp
Std-dev
3.4pp
N graded
16
Recent activity
Total all time
37
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #4 / 19 | 7 | 3.14 pt | D+1.86 pp |
| 2012 | #5 / 12 | 6 | 3.56 pt | R+3.56 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/31/2016Arizona · Senate · 2016John McCain 55.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 39.0
- 10/31/2016Georgia · Senate · 2016Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 37.0 · Allen Buckley 7.0
- 10/25/2016North Carolina · Governor · 2016Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0
- 10/25/2016Florida · Senate · 2016Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0
- 10/25/2016North Carolina · Senate · 2016Richard Burr 48.0 · Deborah Ross 48.0
- 10/23/2016New Hampshire · Governor · 2016Colin Van Ostern 47.0 · Chris Sununu 46.0
- 10/23/2016New Hampshire · Senate · 2016Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0
- 10/11/2016North Carolina · Governor · 2016Pat McCrory 48.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0
- 10/11/2016North Carolina · Senate · 2016Richard Burr 46.0 · Deborah Ross 46.0
- 10/11/2016Ohio · Senate · 2016Rob Portman 55.0 · Ted Strickland 37.0