Races · Governor · 2016 · NC

Governor · open seat

Roy Cooper vs Pat McCrory

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Tilt R — · 108 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 108 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 108 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:108 of 108 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	3126	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=3,126 Sample size of 3,126 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 54.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	New York Times Upshot/Siena College	1.01	L(D+3.5)	800	±3.5	unknown	3472d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 47.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	870	±3.3	unknown	3472d oldtracks editorial consensus 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2865	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,865 Sample size of 2,865 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 54.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2292	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,292 Sample size of 2,292 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 53.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1886	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,886 Sample size of 1,886 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 53.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	602	±4.0	unknown	3477d oldtracks editorial consensus 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1617	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,617 Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 52.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	659	±3.9	unknown	3478d oldtracks editorial consensus 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1574	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,574 Sample size of 1,574 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 52.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	992	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3481d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 46.0	poll arch
10/27/2016	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	710	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3482d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3482d old Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 44.0 · Lon Cecil 1.0	poll arch
10/26/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	780	±3.5	LV	3483d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3483d old Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0	poll arch
10/26/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	702	±3.7	unknown	3483d oldtracks editorial consensus 3483d old Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0	poll arch
10/23/2016	New York Times Upshot/Siena College	1.01	L(D+3.5)	792	±3.5	unknown	3486d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College 3486d old Poll was fielded 3486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0	poll arch
10/23/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3486d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3486d old Poll was fielded 3486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 48.0 · Roy Cooper 47.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
10/22/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	875	±3.3	unknown	3487d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3487d old Poll was fielded 3487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 46.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
10/18/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	924	±3.0	unknown	3491d old 3491d old Poll was fielded 3491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0	poll arch
10/18/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	651	±3.9	unknown	3491d oldtracks editorial consensus 3491d old Poll was fielded 3491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 47.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
10/17/2016	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3492d old Poll was fielded 3492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	1191	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 55.0	poll arch
10/15/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	788	±3.5	LV	3494d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3494d old Poll was fielded 3494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 48.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	743	±3.6	LV	3497d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 48.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0	poll arch
10/6/2016	High Point University	1.00	—	479	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3503d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3503d old Poll was fielded 3503 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
10/3/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	656	±3.9	unknown	3506d oldtracks editorial consensus 3506d old Poll was fielded 3506 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
10/3/2016	Bloomberg/Selzer	1.00	—	805	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3506d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3506d old Poll was fielded 3506 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0	poll arch
10/2/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	507	±4.4	unknown	3507d oldtracks editorial consensus 3507d old Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0	poll arch
9/30/2016	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	660	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3509d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3509d old Poll was fielded 3509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
9/28/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	861	±3.3	unknown	3511d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3511d old Poll was fielded 3511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 45.0 · Lon Cecil 4.0	poll arch
9/22/2016	Meredith College	1.00	—	487	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3517d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3517d old Poll was fielded 3517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 39.0 · Lon Cecil 1.0	poll arch
9/22/2016	High Point University	1.00	—	404	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3517d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3517d old Poll was fielded 3517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	734	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt3519d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1024	±3.1	unknown	3519d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 46.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
9/19/2016	New York Times Upshot/Siena College	1.01	L(D+3.5)	782	±3.6	unknown	3520d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College 3520d old Poll was fielded 3520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 50.0	poll arch
9/16/2016	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	644	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls3523d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3523d old Poll was fielded 3523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 49.0 · Roy Cooper 46.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
9/12/2016	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3527d old Poll was fielded 3527 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0 · Lon Cecil 1.0	poll arch
9/7/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	751	±3.6	unknown	3532d oldtracks editorial consensus 3532d old Poll was fielded 3532 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0	poll arch
8/23/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	401	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3547d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3547d old Poll was fielded 3547 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 52.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
8/23/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	803	±3.5	LV	3547d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3547d old Poll was fielded 3547 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 52.0	poll arch
8/10/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	921	±3.2	unknown	3560d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3560d old Poll was fielded 3560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 51.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	830	±3.4	unknown	3563d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0 · Lon Cecil 4.0	poll arch
7/11/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	907	±3.3	unknown	3590d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3590d old Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0	poll arch
6/23/2016	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3608d old Poll was fielded 3608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 40.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
6/21/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	947	±3.2	unknown	3610d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3610d old Poll was fielded 3610 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0 · Lon Cecil 6.0	poll arch
5/23/2016	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3639d old Poll was fielded 3639 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 40.0 · Lon Cecil 3.0	poll arch
5/22/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	928	±3.2	unknown	3640d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3640d old Poll was fielded 3640 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0 · Lon Cecil 5.0	poll arch
4/28/2016	RABA Research	1.00	—	688	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3664d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3664d old Poll was fielded 3664 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 36.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0 · Lon Cecil 6.0	poll arch
4/25/2016	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3667d old Poll was fielded 3667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 39.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0 · Lon Cecil 5.0	poll arch
4/24/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	960	±3.2	unknown	3668d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3668d old Poll was fielded 3668 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0 · Lon Cecil 4.0	poll arch
4/15/2016	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	621	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls3677d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3677d old Poll was fielded 3677 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0	poll arch
4/11/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	701	±3.8	unknown	3681d oldtracks editorial consensus 3681d old Poll was fielded 3681 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 47.0 · Lon Cecil 2.0	poll arch
3/20/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	843	±3.4	unknown	3703d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3703d old Poll was fielded 3703 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 40.0 · Lon Cecil 6.0	poll arch
3/10/2016	High Point University	1.00	—	1576	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls3713d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3713d old Poll was fielded 3713 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,576 Sample size of 1,576 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 45.0	poll arch
2/19/2016	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	1530	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls3733d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3733d old Poll was fielded 3733 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,530 Sample size of 1,530 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat McCrory 40.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1291	±2.7	unknown	3736d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1250	±2.8	unknown	3736d oldtracks editorial consensus 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1291	±2.7	unknown	3736d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 32.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1250	±2.8	unknown	3736d oldtracks editorial consensus 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat McCrory 48.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 38.0	poll arch
1/19/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	948	±3.2	unknown	3764d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3764d old Poll was fielded 3764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 40.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0	poll arch
1/19/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	948	±3.2	unknown	3764d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3764d old Poll was fielded 3764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 34.0	poll arch
12/7/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1214	±2.8	unknown	3807d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3807d old Poll was fielded 3807 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
12/7/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1214	±2.8	unknown	3807d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3807d old Poll was fielded 3807 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 32.0	poll arch
11/2/2015	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	1040	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls3842d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3842d old Poll was fielded 3842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 40.0 · Roy Cooper 45.0	poll arch
10/25/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	893	±3.3	unknown	3850d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3850d old Poll was fielded 3850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 44.0	poll arch
10/25/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	893	±3.3	unknown	3850d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3850d old Poll was fielded 3850 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 31.0	poll arch
9/27/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	3878d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3878d old Poll was fielded 3878 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
9/27/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1268	±2.8	unknown	3878d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3878d old Poll was fielded 3878 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 34.0	poll arch
9/21/2015	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	1258	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls3884d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3884d old Poll was fielded 3884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
8/16/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	957	±3.2	unknown	3920d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3920d old Poll was fielded 3920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 39.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
8/16/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	957	±3.2	unknown	3920d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3920d old Poll was fielded 3920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 40.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 35.0	poll arch
8/16/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	957	±3.2	unknown	3920d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3920d old Poll was fielded 3920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Dan Forest 33.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
8/12/2015	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	400	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3924d old Poll was fielded 3924 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 32.0 · Roy Cooper 34.0	poll arch
7/6/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	529	±4.3	unknown	3961d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3961d old Poll was fielded 3961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0	poll arch
7/6/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	529	±4.3	unknown	3961d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3961d old Poll was fielded 3961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 33.0	poll arch
6/25/2015	Civitas Institute	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3972d old Poll was fielded 3972 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 38.0	poll arch
5/31/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	561	±4.1	unknown	3997d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3997d old Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 41.0 · Roy Cooper 44.0	poll arch
5/31/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	561	±4.1	unknown	3997d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3997d old Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 32.0	poll arch
4/24/2015	Elon University Poll	1.00	—	677	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4034d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4034d old Poll was fielded 4034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0	poll arch
4/5/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	751	±3.6	unknown	4053d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4053d old Poll was fielded 4053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
4/5/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	751	±3.6	unknown	4053d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4053d old Poll was fielded 4053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 33.0	poll arch
2/26/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	849	±3.4	unknown	4091d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4091d old Poll was fielded 4091 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
2/26/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	849	±3.4	unknown	4091d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4091d old Poll was fielded 4091 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 35.0	poll arch
2/3/2015	Diversified Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4114d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4114d old Poll was fielded 4114 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
1/31/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	845	±3.4	unknown	4117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4117d old Poll was fielded 4117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 39.0	poll arch
1/31/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	845	±3.4	unknown	4117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4117d old Poll was fielded 4117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Kenneth Spaulding 36.0	poll arch
1/22/2015	Meeting Street Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4126d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4126d old Poll was fielded 4126 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 44.0	poll arch
1/22/2015	Meeting Street Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4126d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4126d old Poll was fielded 4126 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat McCrory 50.0 · Kay Hagan 42.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 46.0 · Roy Cooper 39.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Janet Cowell 36.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 48.0 · Anthony Foxx 34.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Phil Berger 35.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Phil Berger 37.0 · Janet Cowell 38.0	poll arch
12/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	823	±3.4	unknown	4172d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4172d old Poll was fielded 4172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Phil Berger 39.0 · Anthony Foxx 36.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1006	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4210d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat McCrory 47.0 · Roy Cooper 45.0	poll arch
10/18/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1022	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4222d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4222d old Poll was fielded 4222 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat McCrory 49.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	860	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4247d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1266	±2.8	unknown	4256d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	856	±3.4	unknown	4284d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0	poll arch
7/27/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1380	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4305d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4305d old Poll was fielded 4305 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 46.0	poll arch
6/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1076	±3.0	unknown	4347d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4347d old Poll was fielded 4347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 44.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
5/11/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	877	±3.3	unknown	4382d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4382d old Poll was fielded 4382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 42.0	poll arch
4/6/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	740	±3.6	unknown	4417d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4417d old Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 43.0	poll arch
4/6/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	740	±3.6	unknown	4417d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4417d old Poll was fielded 4417 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 45.0 · Charles Meeker 38.0	poll arch
2/9/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	unknown	4473d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4473d old Poll was fielded 4473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Roy Cooper 41.0	poll arch
9/9/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4626d old Poll was fielded 4626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Roy Cooper 48.0	poll arch
9/9/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4626d old Poll was fielded 4626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 43.0 · Janet Cowell 47.0	poll arch
9/9/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4626d old Poll was fielded 4626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Charles Meeker 45.0	poll arch
9/9/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4626d old Poll was fielded 4626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat McCrory 42.0 · Josh Stein 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Aug 12	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi