Races · Senate · 2016 · AZ

Senate · class II · open seat

Ann Kirkpatrick vs John McCain

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Tilt R — · 49 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 49 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 49 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:49 of 49 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2609	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,609 Sample size of 2,609 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	392	±4.9	unknown	3 scored pollsn=392+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. n=392 Sample size of 392 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 42.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.1	unknown	3472d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 56.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 44.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2322	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,322 Sample size of 2,322 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 45.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1748	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,748 Sample size of 1,748 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.1	unknown	3476d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 52.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 41.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1461	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 44.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	719	±3.7	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 55.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 39.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	1113	±3.0	unknown	3477d old 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 52.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	769	±3.5	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 54.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 41.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1320	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 44.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	700	±3.6	unknown	3478d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	John McCain 46.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1457	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	John McCain 49.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 46.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	±4.1	unknown	3479d oldbias R+0.2pt+1 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 49.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 39.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	994	±4.3	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3481d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 43.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 38.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	401	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3485d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 50.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	1028	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	John McCain 48.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 45.0	poll arch
10/15/2016	Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite	1.00	—	660	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3494d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3494d old Poll was fielded 3494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 52.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
10/14/2016	Highground	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3495d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3495d old Poll was fielded 3495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 45.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 35.0	poll arch
10/4/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.6	unknown	3505d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3505d old Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	John McCain 52.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 36.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	484	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3525d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 53.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 35.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	649	±3.8	unknown	3531d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 57.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 38.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	837	±3.0	unknown	3542d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 43.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 43.0	poll arch
8/27/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1244	±2.8	unknown	3543d oldtracks editorial consensus 3543d old Poll was fielded 3543 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelli Ward 53.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 19.0	poll arch
8/23/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	809	±3.5	LV	3547d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3547d old Poll was fielded 3547 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John McCain 52.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 39.0	poll arch
6/23/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	691	±3.7	unknown	3608d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3608d old Poll was fielded 3608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 42.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
6/20/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	300	±5.7	unknown	no scored pollsn=300+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 3611d old Poll was fielded 3611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 44.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 42.0	poll arch
6/19/2016	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	448	±4.7	unknown	no scored polls3612d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3612d old Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 40.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 31.0	poll arch
6/9/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	3622d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3622d old Poll was fielded 3622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 41.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 43.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	896	±3.3	unknown	3647d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 42.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 36.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	896	±3.3	unknown	3647d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelli Ward 37.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 35.0	poll arch
4/11/2016	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	564	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3681d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3681d old Poll was fielded 3681 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 42.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 42.0	poll arch
3/11/2016	The Merrill Poll	1.00	—	701	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3712d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3712d old Poll was fielded 3712 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 41.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 40.0	poll arch
1/17/2016	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	590	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3766d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3766d old Poll was fielded 3766 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 38.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 37.0	poll arch
12/9/2015	Strategies 360	1.13	—(D+2.5)	504	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3805d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3805d old Poll was fielded 3805 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 51.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 36.0	poll arch
11/5/2015	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	577	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3839d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3839d old Poll was fielded 3839 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John McCain 37.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 31.0	poll arch
8/16/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1433	±2.6	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3920d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3920d old Poll was fielded 3920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	John McCain 48.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 35.0	poll arch
8/16/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1433	±2.6	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3920d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3920d old Poll was fielded 3920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelli Ward 43.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 38.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 42.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 36.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 40.0 · Richard Carmona 34.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 40.0 · Fred DuVal 36.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 42.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 36.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Christine Jones 36.0 · Richard Carmona 42.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Matt Salmon 43.0 · Richard Carmona 35.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	David Schweikert 39.0 · Richard Carmona 39.0	poll arch
5/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4025d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4025d old Poll was fielded 4025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelli Ward 36.0 · Richard Carmona 39.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 35.0 · Richard Carmona 41.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 35.0 · Gabrielle Giffords 42.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John McCain 44.0 · Janet Napolitano 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

2 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Nov 2	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 7	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi