Races · Senate · 2016 · CA

Senate · class II · open seat

Kamala Harris vs David Dreier

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Likely D — · 31 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 31 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 31 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:31 of 31 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2712	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,712 Sample size of 2,712 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 52.0 · Loretta Sánchez 31.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	401	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls3472d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 50.0 · Loretta Sánchez 28.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	747	±3.7	unknown	3478d oldtracks editorial consensus 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kamala Harris 47.0 · Loretta Sánchez 27.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2505	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,505 Sample size of 2,505 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 50.0 · Loretta Sánchez 30.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	The Field Poll	1.00	—	1498	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3478d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 47.0 · Loretta Sánchez 23.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times	1.00	—	697	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3479d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Kamala Harris 48.0 · Loretta Sánchez 31.0	poll arch
10/23/2016	PPIC Statewide Survey	1.00	—	1024	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls3486d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3486d old Poll was fielded 3486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 42.0 · Loretta Sánchez 20.0	poll arch
10/15/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	725	±3.7	unknown	3494d oldtracks editorial consensus 3494d old Poll was fielded 3494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kamala Harris 45.0 · Loretta Sánchez 24.0	poll arch
10/14/2016	Hoover Institution – Golden State Poll	1.00	—	1228	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls3495d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3495d old Poll was fielded 3495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 41.0 · Loretta Sánchez 22.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	Sacramento State/CA Counts	1.00	—	622	±7.0	unknown	no scored polls3496d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 49.0 · Loretta Sánchez 24.0	poll arch
9/28/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	751	±3.6	unknown	3511d oldtracks editorial consensus 3511d old Poll was fielded 3511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kamala Harris 40.0 · Loretta Sánchez 29.0	poll arch
9/18/2016	PPIC Statewide Survey	1.00	—	1702	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3521d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3521d old Poll was fielded 3521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,702 Sample size of 1,702 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 32.0 · Loretta Sánchez 25.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	515	±4.3	unknown	3 scored polls3525d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 42.0 · Loretta Sánchez 28.0	poll arch
9/13/2016	The Field Poll	1.00	—	1426	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3526d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3526d old Poll was fielded 3526 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 42.0 · Loretta Sánchez 20.0	poll arch
9/11/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	712	±3.7	unknown	3528d oldtracks editorial consensus 3528d old Poll was fielded 3528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kamala Harris 44.0 · Loretta Sánchez 27.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	SurveyMonkey USC/Los Angeles Times	1.00	—	4212	±2.0	unknown	no scored polls3531d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=4,212 Sample size of 4,212 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 30.0 · Loretta Sánchez 16.0	poll arch
8/24/2016	Sacramento State/CA Counts	1.00	—	915	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3546d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3546d old Poll was fielded 3546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 51.0 · Loretta Sánchez 19.0	poll arch
8/19/2016	SmithJohnson Research	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3551d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3551d old Poll was fielded 3551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 41.0 · Loretta Sánchez 15.0	poll arch
7/19/2016	PPIC Statewide Survey	1.00	—	1056	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3582d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3582d old Poll was fielded 3582 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 38.0 · Loretta Sánchez 20.0	poll arch
7/2/2016	The Field Poll	1.00	—	956	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3599d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3599d old Poll was fielded 3599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 39.0 · Loretta Sánchez 24.0	poll arch
6/10/2016	SurveyMonkey USC/Los Angeles Times	1.00	—	1553	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3621d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3621d old Poll was fielded 3621 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Los Angeles Times Commissioned by Los Angeles Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,553 Sample size of 1,553 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 47.0 · Loretta Sánchez 22.0	poll arch
5/31/2016	The Field Poll	1.00	—	1002	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls3631d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3631d old Poll was fielded 3631 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 40.0 · Loretta Sánchez 26.0	poll arch
5/22/2016	PPIC Statewide Survey	1.00	—	996	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls3640d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3640d old Poll was fielded 3640 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kamala Harris 34.0 · Loretta Sánchez 26.0	poll arch
4/10/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	2088	±2.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3682d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3682d old Poll was fielded 3682 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=2,088 Sample size of 2,088 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 29.0 · Loretta Sánchez 19.0	poll arch
2/24/2015	USC	1.00	—	1505	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4093d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4093d old Poll was fielded 4093 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,505 Sample size of 1,505 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kamala Harris 45.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 27.0	poll arch
2/8/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	824	—	unknown	4109d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4109d old Poll was fielded 4109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kamala Harris 47.0 · David Dreier 42.0	poll arch
2/8/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	824	—	unknown	4109d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4109d old Poll was fielded 4109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kamala Harris 45.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 23.0	poll arch
2/8/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	824	—	unknown	4109d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4109d old Poll was fielded 4109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Adam Schiff 43.0 · David Dreier 42.0	poll arch
2/8/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	824	—	unknown	4109d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4109d old Poll was fielded 4109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Antonio Villaraigosa 46.0 · David Dreier 44.0	poll arch
1/22/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	627	—	unknown	4126d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4126d old Poll was fielded 4126 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kamala Harris 41.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 16.0	poll arch
12/30/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	869	—	unknown	4149d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4149d old Poll was fielded 4149 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Eric Garcetti 20.0 · Kamala Harris 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Sep 9	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe D	Sep 15	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Sep 19	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi