Races · Senate · 2016 · CO

Senate · class II · open seat

Michael Bennet vs Darryl Glenn

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Lean D — · 37 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 37 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 37 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:37 of 37 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2777	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,777 Sample size of 2,777 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 52.0 · Darryl Glenn 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2412	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,412 Sample size of 2,412 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 51.0 · Darryl Glenn 45.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	704	±3.7	unknown	3474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Michael Bennet 50.0 · Darryl Glenn 40.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	Keating Research	1.00	—	605	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3475d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 49.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1927	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,927 Sample size of 1,927 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 51.0 · Darryl Glenn 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1125	±2.9	unknown	3476d oldtracks editorial consensus 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 47.0 · Darryl Glenn 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1631	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,631 Sample size of 1,631 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 50.0 · Darryl Glenn 46.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	972	±3.0	unknown	3477d old 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 49.0 · Darryl Glenn 41.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1402	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Michael Bennet 49.0 · Darryl Glenn 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	University of Denver	1.00	—	550	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3478d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 48.0 · Darryl Glenn 40.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	750	±3.5	unknown	3478d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Michael Bennet 47.0 · Darryl Glenn 42.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1532	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,532 Sample size of 1,532 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 48.0 · Darryl Glenn 46.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	997	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3481d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 46.0 · Darryl Glenn 41.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	University of Colorado Boulder	1.00	—	1037	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls3485d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 54.0 · Darryl Glenn 40.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	685	±3.7	unknown	3493d oldtracks editorial consensus 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 56.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	956	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 52.0 · Darryl Glenn 42.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	500	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned3496d old commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 47.0 · Darryl Glenn 32.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1226	±2.8	unknown	3496d oldtracks editorial consensus 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 48.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
10/4/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1246	±2.8	unknown	3505d oldtracks editorial consensus 3505d old Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 47.0 · Darryl Glenn 39.0	poll arch
10/2/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	400	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3507d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3507d old Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 53.0 · Darryl Glenn 35.0	poll arch
9/28/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	694	±3.7	unknown	3511d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3511d old Poll was fielded 3511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Michael Bennet 44.0 · Darryl Glenn 34.0	poll arch
9/25/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	784	±3.5	LV	3514d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3514d old Poll was fielded 3514 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 53.0 · Darryl Glenn 43.0	poll arch
9/23/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	799	±3.5	unknown	3516d oldtracks editorial consensus 3516d old Poll was fielded 3516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 43.0 · Darryl Glenn 45.0	poll arch
9/21/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	644	±3.9	unknown	3518d oldtracks editorial consensus 3518d old Poll was fielded 3518 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 52.0 · Darryl Glenn 43.0	poll arch
9/18/2016	Colorado Mesa University/Rocky Mountain PBS	1.00	—	350	±6.3	LV	no scored pollsn=350+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=350 Sample size of 350 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.2pt — wider than typical. 3521d old Poll was fielded 3521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: Rocky Mountain PBS Commissioned by Rocky Mountain PBS, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Michael Bennet 42.0 · Darryl Glenn 31.0	poll arch
9/13/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.6	unknown	3526d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3526d old Poll was fielded 3526 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Michael Bennet 46.0 · Darryl Glenn 39.0	poll arch
8/31/2016	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	500	±4.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned3539d old commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3539d old Poll was fielded 3539 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 48.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
8/16/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	830	±3.4	unknown	3554d oldtracks editorial consensus 3554d old Poll was fielded 3554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 54.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
8/10/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	899	±3.3	unknown	3560d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3560d old Poll was fielded 3560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 53.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
7/12/2016	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt3589d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 3589d old Poll was fielded 3589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 51.0 · Darryl Glenn 36.0	poll arch
7/12/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	404	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3589d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3589d old Poll was fielded 3589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 48.0 · Darryl Glenn 35.0	poll arch
7/11/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	794	±3.5	unknown	3590d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3590d old Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 53.0 · Darryl Glenn 38.0	poll arch
7/9/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3592d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3592d old Poll was fielded 3592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 46.0 · Darryl Glenn 40.0	poll arch
7/6/2016	Senate Conservatives Fund	1.00	—	500	—	unknown	no scored polls3595d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3595d old Poll was fielded 3595 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Michael Bennet 47.0 · Darryl Glenn 42.0	poll arch
10/28/2015	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	1600	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3847d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3847d old Poll was fielded 3847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,600 Sample size of 1,600 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Michael Bennet 50.0 · Scott Tipton 44.0	poll arch
4/7/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	894	±3.3	unknown	4051d oldtracks editorial consensus 4051d old Poll was fielded 4051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 40.0 · Mike Coffman 43.0	poll arch
4/7/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	894	±3.3	unknown	4051d oldtracks editorial consensus 4051d old Poll was fielded 4051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Michael Bennet 44.0 · Cynthia Coffman 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Nov 2	—	+9.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Nov 3	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 7	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi