Races · Senate · 2016 · GA

Senate · class II · open seat

Jim Barksdale vs Johnny Isakson

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Tilt R — · 31 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 31 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:31 of 31 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2419	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,419 Sample size of 2,419 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 8.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	WSB-TV/Landmark	1.00	—	1200	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls3472d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 52.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 4.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2348	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,348 Sample size of 2,348 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 8.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	995	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3473d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	WSB-TV/Landmark	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls3475d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 40.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	FOX 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy	1.00	—	538	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3475d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 39.0 · Allen Buckley 8.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2872	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,872 Sample size of 2,872 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 42.0 · Allen Buckley 8.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2722	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,722 Sample size of 2,722 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 42.0 · Allen Buckley 7.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	707	±3.7	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 37.0 · Allen Buckley 7.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2678	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,678 Sample size of 2,678 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 6.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	650	±3.8	unknown	3478d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 40.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2665	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,665 Sample size of 2,665 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
10/27/2016	WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	1.00	—	594	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3482d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3482d old Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 38.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
10/26/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	707	±3.7	unknown	3483d oldtracks editorial consensus 3483d old Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 54.0 · Jim Barksdale 40.0	poll arch
10/20/2016	FOX 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy	1.00	—	570	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3489d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3489d old Poll was fielded 3489 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 51.0 · Jim Barksdale 42.0 · Allen Buckley 3.0	poll arch
10/20/2016	Google Consumer Surveys	0.33	—(R+12.2)	439	±4.2	unknown	weight 0.333 scored polls+2 weight 0.33 Aggregation weight is 0.33 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3489d old Poll was fielded 3489 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Johnny Isakson 58.0 · Jim Barksdale 36.0	poll arch
10/20/2016	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	839	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls3489d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3489d old Poll was fielded 3489 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 32.0 · Allen Buckley 11.0	poll arch
10/18/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	807	±3.0	unknown	3491d old 3491d old Poll was fielded 3491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 49.0 · Jim Barksdale 39.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	886	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 46.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	WSB-TV/Landmark	1.00	—	1400	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls3497d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 37.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
9/22/2016	JMC Analytics	1.00	R	600	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3517d old Poll was fielded 3517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 41.0 · Jim Barksdale 28.0 · Allen Buckley 4.0	poll arch
9/21/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	638	±3.9	unknown	3518d oldtracks editorial consensus 3518d old Poll was fielded 3518 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 55.0 · Jim Barksdale 34.0	poll arch
9/18/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	401	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3521d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3521d old Poll was fielded 3521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 50.0 · Jim Barksdale 34.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	FOX 5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy	1.00	—	568	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls3525d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 34.0 · Allen Buckley 6.0	poll arch
9/13/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.6	unknown	3526d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3526d old Poll was fielded 3526 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 32.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	649	±3.8	unknown	3531d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Johnny Isakson 53.0 · Jim Barksdale 38.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	JMC Analytics	1.00	R	615	±4.0	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 39.0 · Jim Barksdale 30.0 · Allen Buckley 4.0	poll arch
8/4/2016	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	847	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3566d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3566d old Poll was fielded 3566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 44.0 · Jim Barksdale 38.0 · Allen Buckley 6.0	poll arch
7/31/2016	WSB-TV/Landmark	1.00	—	787	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3570d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3570d old Poll was fielded 3570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 46.0 · Jim Barksdale 41.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
7/31/2016	WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	1.00	—	570	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3570d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3570d old Poll was fielded 3570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Johnny Isakson 48.0 · Jim Barksdale 39.0 · Allen Buckley 5.0	poll arch
5/30/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	724	±3.6	unknown	3632d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3632d old Poll was fielded 3632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Johnny Isakson 47.0 · Jim Barksdale 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 15 total

Johnny Isakson (R)

15 endorsements · source

Elected officials (8)

Brian Kemp — Secretary of State of Georgia [ 14 ]
Carly Fiorina — former CEO of Hewlett-Packard , 2010 Republican nominee for Senate in California, and 2016 presidential candidate [ 16 ]
Casey Cagle — Lieutenant Governor of Georgia [ 14 ]
David Ralston — Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives [ 14 ]
David Shafer — President Pro Tempore of the Georgia State Senate [ 14 ]
Jack Kingston — Georgia (former) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 [ 14 ]
Nathan Deal — Governor of Georgia [ 14 ]
Phil Gingrey — Georgia (former) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 [ 14 ]

Other (7)

Barry Loudermilk — Georgia 11
David Scott — Georgia (Democratic)
Doug Collins — Georgia [ 14 ]
Gary Black — Agriculture Commissioner [ 14 ]
Isakson — 80–90%
Lynn Westmoreland — Georgia [ 15 ]
Tom Graves — Georgia [ 14 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 2	—	-9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely R	Nov 7	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 7	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi