Races · Senate · 2016 · HI

Senate · class II · open seat

Brian Schatz vs John Carroll

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Likely D — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 6 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:6 of 6 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	426	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 70.0 · John Carroll 26.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	426	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 67.0 · John Carroll 29.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	435	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 68.0 · John Carroll 26.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	424	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 70.0 · John Carroll 26.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	428	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 70.0 · John Carroll 26.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	467	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Brian Schatz 69.0 · John Carroll 27.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 2	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe D	Nov 7	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 7	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi