Races · Senate · 2016 · FL
Senate · class II · open seat

Patrick Murphy vs Marco Rubio

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Tilt R — · 169 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 169 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 169 results

169 of 169 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/7/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)4092±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3471d old
    Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=4,092
    Sample size of 4,092 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 49.0pollarch
11/6/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)884±3.3unknown
3472d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3472d old
    Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
11/6/2016Alliance/ESA Poll1.00—875±4.2unknown
no scored polls3472d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3472d old
    Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
11/6/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)3574±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3472d old
    Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=3,574
    Sample size of 3,574 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 49.0pollarch
11/4/2016CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1188±3.6unknown
historical bias D+3.4pt3474d old+1
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3474d old
    Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
11/3/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)3356±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3475d old
    Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=3,356
    Sample size of 3,356 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 49.0pollarch
11/2/2016Breitbart/Gravis Marketing0.74L(D+4.2)1220±2.8unknown
3476d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3476d old
    Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
11/2/2016FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy1.00—603±4.0unknown
no scored polls3476d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3476d old
    Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
11/2/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)2901±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3476d old
    Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=2,901
    Sample size of 2,901 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 48.0pollarch
11/1/2016CNN/ORC1.27—(D+1.2)773±3.5LV
3477d oldlikely-voter screen+1
  • 3477d old
    Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 48.0pollarch
11/1/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)626±3.9unknown
3477d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3477d old
    Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
11/1/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)2715±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3477d old
    Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=2,715
    Sample size of 2,715 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 47.0pollarch
10/31/2016SurveyMonkey1.00—(D+6.1)2809±4.6unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3478d old
    Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=2,809
    Sample size of 2,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 47.0pollarch
10/28/2016TargetSmart/William & Mary1.00—718±3.4unknown
no scored polls3481d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3481d old
    Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
10/27/2016Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)500±4.3unknown
3482d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 3482d old
    Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 47.0pollarch
10/27/2016New York Times Upshot/Siena College1.01L(D+3.5)814±3.4unknown
3482d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College
  • 3482d old
    Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • university-sponsored: Siena College
    Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
10/26/2016Breitbart/Gravis Marketing0.74L(D+4.2)1301±2.7unknown
3483d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3483d old
    Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
10/26/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)742±3.6unknown
3483d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3483d old
    Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
10/26/2016NBC/WSJ/Marist1.20neutral(R+0.7)779±3.5LV
3483d oldlikely-voter screen+2
  • 3483d old
    Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.7pt
    Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
10/26/2016St. Leo University1.00—1028±3.0unknown
no scored polls3483d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3483d old
    Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
10/25/2016University of North Florida0.81L(D+5.0)836±3.6unknown
3484d oldD+8.6pt vs editors
  • 3484d old
    Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.6pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
10/24/2016Bloomberg/Selzer1.00—953±3.2unknown
no scored polls3485d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3485d old
    Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
10/24/2016Bay News 9/SurveyUSA1.00—1251±2.8unknown
no scored polls3485d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3485d old
    Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 45.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
10/23/2016Florida Atlantic University1.34—(D+2.4)500±4.3unknown
3 scored polls3486d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3486d old
    Poll was fielded 3486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
10/21/2016CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1042±3.6unknown
historical bias D+3.4pt3488d old+1
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3488d old
    Poll was fielded 3488 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
10/20/2016FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy1.00—538±4.2unknown
no scored polls3489d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3489d old
    Poll was fielded 3489 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
10/20/2016Google Consumer Surveys0.33—(R+12.2)500±4.2unknown
weight 0.333 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.33
    Aggregation weight is 0.33 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3489d old
    Poll was fielded 3489 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
Marco Rubio 57.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
10/19/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—1000±3.1unknown
no scored polls3490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3490d old
    Poll was fielded 3490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
10/19/2016Florida Chamber of Commerce1.00—507±4.4unknown
no scored polls3490d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3490d old
    Poll was fielded 3490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0pollarch
10/18/2016The Times-Picayune/Lucid1.01L(D+4.0)892±3.0unknown
3491d old
  • 3491d old
    Poll was fielded 3491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 45.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
10/16/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)660±3.8unknown
3493d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3493d old
    Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 47.0pollarch
10/16/2016Washington Post/SurveyMonkey1.00—1702±0.5unknown
no scored polls3493d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3493d old
    Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+5.0pt vs editors
    Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • n=1,702
    Sample size of 1,702 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 51.0 · Patrick Murphy 45.0pollarch
10/13/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)985±3.1unknown
3496d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3496d old
    Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0 · Paul Stanton 6.0pollarch
10/13/2016Breitbart/Gravis Marketing0.74L(D+4.2)1799±2.3unknown
3496d oldn=1,799+1
  • 3496d old
    Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,799
    Sample size of 1,799 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 36.0pollarch
10/11/2016FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy1.00—533±4.2unknown
no scored polls3498d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3498d old
    Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
10/5/2016NBC/WSJ/Marist1.20neutral(R+0.7)700±3.7unknown
3504d oldbias R+0.7pt+1
  • 3504d old
    Poll was fielded 3504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias R+0.7pt
    Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 46.0pollarch
10/5/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—600±4.0unknown
no scored polls3504d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3504d old
    Poll was fielded 3504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
10/4/2016Breitbart/Gravis Marketing0.74L(D+4.2)821±3.4unknown
3505d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3505d old
    Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
10/4/2016Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)600±3.6unknown
3505d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 3505d old
    Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
10/4/2016University of North Florida0.81L(D+5.0)667±3.8unknown
3505d oldD+8.6pt vs editors
  • 3505d old
    Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.6pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
10/2/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)545±4.2unknown
3507d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3507d old
    Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
9/29/2016FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy1.00—619±4.0unknown
no scored polls3510d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3510d old
    Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
9/29/2016Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)820±3.5unknown
bias R+2.4pt3510d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 3510d old
    Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0 · Paul Stanton 5.0pollarch
9/28/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)826±3.4unknown
3511d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3511d old
    Poll was fielded 3511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 42.0 · Patrick Murphy 35.0 · Paul Stanton 9.0pollarch
9/21/2016Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
3518d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 3518d old
    Poll was fielded 3518 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 34.0 · Paul Stanton 2.0pollarch
9/20/2016Florida Chamber of Commerce1.00—617±4.0unknown
no scored polls3519d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3519d old
    Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
9/19/2016Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)400±4.9unknown
historical bias D+5.0pt3520d old+1
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3520d old
    Poll was fielded 3520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 45.0pollarch
9/16/2016Saint Leo University1.00—(D+8.5)502±4.5unknown
3 scored polls3523d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3523d old
    Poll was fielded 3523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 35.0pollarch
9/14/2016New York Times Upshot/Siena College1.01L(D+3.5)867±3.3unknown
3525d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College
  • 3525d old
    Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • university-sponsored: Siena College
    Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
9/12/2016CNN/ORC1.27—(D+1.2)788±3.0LV
3527d oldlikely-voter screen+1
  • 3527d old
    Poll was fielded 3527 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 54.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
9/11/2016Global Strategy Group1.00—800±3.5unknown
no scored polls3528d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3528d old
    Poll was fielded 3528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 45.0pollarch
9/8/2016JMC Analytics1.00R781±3.5unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3531d old
    Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
9/7/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)601±4.0unknown
3532d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3532d old
    Poll was fielded 3532 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
9/6/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)744±3.6unknown
3533d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3533d old
    Poll was fielded 3533 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 40.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0 · Paul Stanton 10.0pollarch
8/24/2016Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt3546d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 3546d old
    Poll was fielded 3546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
8/24/2016iCitizen1.00—600±4.0unknown
no scored polls3546d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3546d old
    Poll was fielded 3546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
8/24/2016iCitizen1.00—600±4.0unknown
no scored polls3546d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3546d old
    Poll was fielded 3546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Alan Grayson 39.0pollarch
8/22/2016Florida Atlantic University1.34—(D+2.4)1200±2.7unknown
3 scored polls3548d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 3548d old
    Poll was fielded 3548 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
8/18/2016St. Leo University1.00—1380±3.0unknown
no scored polls3552d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3552d old
    Poll was fielded 3552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
8/18/2016St. Leo University1.00—1380±3.0unknown
no scored polls3552d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3552d old
    Poll was fielded 3552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Alan Grayson 34.0pollarch
8/15/2016Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)402±4.9unknown
historical bias D+5.0pt3555d old+1
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3555d old
    Poll was fielded 3555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
8/15/2016Civis Analytics1.00—1436±2.8unknown
no scored polls3555d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3555d old
    Poll was fielded 3555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 45.0pollarch
8/15/2016Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)402±4.9unknown
historical bias D+5.0pt3555d old+1
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 3555d old
    Poll was fielded 3555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Alan Grayson 39.0pollarch
8/10/2016FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy1.00—622±4.0unknown
no scored polls3560d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3560d old
    Poll was fielded 3560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 45.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
8/10/2016NBC/WSJ/Marist1.20neutral(R+0.7)862±3.3unknown
3560d oldbias R+0.7pt+1
  • 3560d old
    Poll was fielded 3560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias R+0.7pt
    Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
8/7/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)938±3.2unknown
3563d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3563d old
    Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 42.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
8/7/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1056±3.0unknown
3563d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3563d old
    Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 45.0pollarch
8/7/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1056±3.0unknown
3563d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3563d old
    Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 39.0 · Alan Grayson 43.0pollarch
8/7/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1056±3.0unknown
3563d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3563d old
    Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 48.0pollarch
8/7/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1056±3.0unknown
3563d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3563d old
    Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Alan Grayson 43.0pollarch
8/3/2016Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
3567d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 3567d old
    Poll was fielded 3567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 33.0pollarch
8/3/2016Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500±4.4unknown
3567d oldbias D+0.1pt+1
  • 3567d old
    Poll was fielded 3567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 45.0 · Alan Grayson 31.0pollarch
7/11/2016NBC/WSJ/Marist1.20neutral(R+0.7)871±3.3unknown
3590d oldbias R+0.7pt+1
  • 3590d old
    Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias R+0.7pt
    Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
7/11/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1015±3.1unknown
3590d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3590d old
    Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0pollarch
7/11/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1015±3.1unknown
3590d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3590d old
    Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 38.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
7/11/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1015±3.1unknown
3590d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3590d old
    Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
7/11/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1015±3.1unknown
3590d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3590d old
    Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
7/10/2016JMC Analytics1.00R700±3.7unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3591d old
    Poll was fielded 3591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 40.0 · Patrick Murphy 33.0pollarch
7/10/2016JMC Analytics1.00R700±3.7unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3591d old
    Poll was fielded 3591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 41.0 · Alan Grayson 33.0pollarch
6/27/2016Bay News 9/SurveyUSA1.00—1678±2.4unknown
no scored polls3604d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3604d old
    Poll was fielded 3604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=1,678
    Sample size of 1,678 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 33.0 · Alan Grayson 41.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 32.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
David Jolly 34.0 · Alan Grayson 41.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
David Jolly 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 35.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 32.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Todd Wilcox 34.0 · Alan Grayson 39.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Todd Wilcox 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 33.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
6/19/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)975±3.1unknown
3612d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3612d old
    Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
6/16/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)508±4.4unknown
3615d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3615d old
    Poll was fielded 3615 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 41.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
6/16/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)508±4.4unknown
3615d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3615d old
    Poll was fielded 3615 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 42.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 33.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 29.0 · Patrick Murphy 44.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos Beruff 32.0 · Alan Grayson 41.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos Beruff 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
6/5/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)737±3.6unknown
3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3626d old
    Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 43.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 38.0 · Alan Grayson 36.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 35.0 · Patrick Murphy 36.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
David Jolly 37.0 · Alan Grayson 35.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
David Jolly 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 37.0 · Alan Grayson 37.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Todd Wilcox 37.0 · Alan Grayson 35.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Todd Wilcox 33.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 35.0 · Alan Grayson 36.0pollarch
5/8/2016Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1051±3.0unknown
3654d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3654d old
    Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos Beruff 32.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
4/27/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—604±5.0unknown
no scored polls3665d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
4/27/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—604±5.0unknown
no scored polls3665d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Ron DeSantis 28.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
4/27/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—604±5.0unknown
no scored polls3665d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
David Jolly 33.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
4/27/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—604±5.0unknown
no scored polls3665d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Carlos López-Cantera 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 42.0pollarch
4/27/2016Associated Industries of Florida1.00—604±5.0unknown
no scored polls3665d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3665d old
    Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Carlos Beruff 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ron DeSantis 34.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ron DeSantis 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 38.0 · Alan Grayson 35.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 35.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
2/25/2016Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)1012±3.1unknown
3727d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3727d old
    Poll was fielded 3727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
10/28/2015Democracy Corps1.00—400±4.9unknown
no scored polls3847d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3847d old
    Poll was fielded 3847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
David Jolly 44.0 · Patrick Murphy 43.0pollarch
10/5/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1173±2.9unknown
3870d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3870d old
    Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 31.0 · Alan Grayson 37.0pollarch
10/5/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1173±2.9unknown
3870d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3870d old
    Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 30.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0pollarch
10/5/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1173±2.9unknown
3870d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3870d old
    Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 32.0 · Alan Grayson 35.0pollarch
10/5/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1173±2.9unknown
3870d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3870d old
    Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 29.0 · Patrick Murphy 37.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ron DeSantis 37.0 · Alan Grayson 36.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ron DeSantis 35.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 39.0 · Alan Grayson 36.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
David Jolly 35.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 34.0 · Alan Grayson 41.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 35.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
9/13/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)814±3.4unknown
3892d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3892d old
    Poll was fielded 3892 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
6/15/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1147±2.9unknown
3982d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3982d old
    Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 32.0 · Alan Grayson 38.0pollarch
6/15/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1147±2.9unknown
3982d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3982d old
    Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ron DeSantis 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
6/15/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1147±2.9unknown
3982d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3982d old
    Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 31.0 · Alan Grayson 37.0pollarch
6/15/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1147±2.9unknown
3982d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 3982d old
    Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 28.0 · Patrick Murphy 40.0pollarch
5/31/2015St. Leo University1.00—535±4.5unknown
no scored polls3997d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3997d old
    Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Ron DeSantis 14.0 · Patrick Murphy 33.0pollarch
5/31/2015St. Leo University1.00—535±4.5unknown
no scored polls3997d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3997d old
    Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
David Jolly 14.0 · Patrick Murphy 35.0pollarch
5/31/2015St. Leo University1.00—535±4.5unknown
no scored polls3997d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3997d old
    Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Carlos López-Cantera 15.0 · Patrick Murphy 30.0pollarch
5/31/2015St. Leo University1.00—535±4.5unknown
no scored polls3997d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3997d old
    Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Don Gaetz 9.0 · Patrick Murphy 36.0pollarch
5/31/2015St. Leo University1.00—535±4.5unknown
no scored polls3997d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3997d old
    Poll was fielded 3997 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Jeff Miller 15.0 · Patrick Murphy 34.0pollarch
3/28/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1087±3.0unknown
4061d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 4061d old
    Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 33.0 · Alan Grayson 32.0pollarch
3/28/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1087±3.0unknown
4061d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 4061d old
    Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Carlos López-Cantera 31.0 · Patrick Murphy 35.0pollarch
3/28/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1087±3.0unknown
4061d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 4061d old
    Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jeff Atwater 42.0 · Alan Grayson 32.0pollarch
3/28/2015Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1087±3.0unknown
4061d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 4061d old
    Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jeff Atwater 38.0 · Patrick Murphy 34.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 36.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Carlos López-Cantera 34.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Jeff Atwater 41.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Jeff Atwater 41.0 · Patrick Murphy 39.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Pam Bondi 45.0 · Alan Grayson 42.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Pam Bondi 45.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Allen West 39.0 · Alan Grayson 42.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Allen West 39.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
3/22/2015Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)923±3.2unknown
4067d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4067d old
    Poll was fielded 4067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 49.0 · Alan Grayson 40.0pollarch
3/5/2015Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)800±3.5unknown
bias R+2.4pt4084d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4084d old
    Poll was fielded 4084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 50.0 · Patrick Murphy 38.0pollarch
3/5/2015Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)800±3.5unknown
bias R+2.4pt4084d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4084d old
    Poll was fielded 4084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jeff Atwater 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 32.0pollarch
3/5/2015Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)800±3.5unknown
bias R+2.4pt4084d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4084d old
    Poll was fielded 4084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Jeff Atwater 45.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 35.0pollarch
3/5/2015Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)800±3.5unknown
bias R+2.4pt4084d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4084d old
    Poll was fielded 4084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Marco Rubio 53.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 36.0pollarch
9/7/2014Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)818±3.4unknown
4263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4263d old
    Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Patrick Murphy 41.0pollarch
9/7/2014Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)818±3.4unknown
4263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4263d old
    Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 47.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 43.0pollarch
6/9/2014Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)672±3.8unknown
4353d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4353d old
    Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 48.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 40.0pollarch
6/9/2014Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)672±3.8unknown
4353d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4353d old
    Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Allen West 41.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 40.0pollarch
9/29/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)579±4.1unknown
4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4606d old
    Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 45.0 · Alex Sink 42.0pollarch
9/29/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)579±4.1unknown
4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4606d old
    Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Marco Rubio 46.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 43.0pollarch
9/29/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)579±4.1unknown
4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4606d old
    Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Allen West 38.0 · Alex Sink 44.0pollarch
9/29/2013Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)579±4.1unknown
4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 4606d old
    Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Allen West 40.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 44.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean R Nov 2 — -3.5 —
Real Clear Politics Tossup Nov 7 — 0.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Nov 7 — -3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi