Races · Senate · 2016 · OH

Senate · class II · open seat

Ted Strickland vs Rob Portman

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Lean R — · 61 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 61 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 61 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:61 of 61 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2860	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,860 Sample size of 2,860 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rob Portman 57.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	900	±3.2	unknown	3473d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rob Portman 49.0 · Ted Strickland 28.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1189	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3474d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 52.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1823	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,823 Sample size of 1,823 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rob Portman 55.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
10/27/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	800	±3.4	unknown	3482d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3482d old Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rob Portman 49.0 · Ted Strickland 35.0	poll arch
10/19/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3490d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3490d old Poll was fielded 3490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 46.0 · Ted Strickland 31.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	624	±3.9	unknown	3493d oldtracks editorial consensus 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 54.0 · Ted Strickland 41.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	1307	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 56.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
10/15/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	774	±3.5	LV	3494d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3494d old Poll was fielded 3494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 56.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	724	±3.6	LV	3497d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 55.0 · Ted Strickland 37.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.9	unknown	3497d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rob Portman 47.0 · Ted Strickland 30.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	Baldwin Wallace University	0.47	—(D+8.5)	1152	±3.0	unknown	weight 0.474 scored polls+2 weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 48.0 · Ted Strickland 36.0	poll arch
10/10/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	1304	±3.0	unknown	3499d old 3499d old Poll was fielded 3499 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 51.0 · Ted Strickland 37.0	poll arch
10/7/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	997	±3.9	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3502d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3502d old Poll was fielded 3502 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 49.0 · Ted Strickland 38.0	poll arch
10/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	782	±3.5	unknown	3503d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3503d old Poll was fielded 3503 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 51.0 · Ted Strickland 36.0	poll arch
10/4/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	405	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3505d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3505d old Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 54.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
9/23/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	850	±3.4	unknown	3516d oldtracks editorial consensus 3516d old Poll was fielded 3516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 44.0 · Ted Strickland 36.0	poll arch
9/22/2016	TargetSmart/William & Mary	1.00	—	652	±3.4	LV	no scored polls3517d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3517d old Poll was fielded 3517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rob Portman 47.0 · Ted Strickland 32.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	737	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt3519d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Rob Portman 51.0 · Ted Strickland 37.0	poll arch
9/19/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	400	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3520d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3520d old Poll was fielded 3520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 51.0 · Ted Strickland 34.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3525d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 39.0 · Ted Strickland 31.0	poll arch
9/12/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	769	±3.0	LV	3527d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3527d old Poll was fielded 3527 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 58.0 · Ted Strickland 37.0	poll arch
9/12/2016	Bloomberg/Selzer	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3527d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3527d old Poll was fielded 3527 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 53.0 · Ted Strickland 36.0	poll arch
8/27/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1134	±3.0	unknown	3543d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3543d old Poll was fielded 3543 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 48.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
8/27/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	800	±3.4	unknown	3543d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3543d old Poll was fielded 3543 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Rob Portman 40.0 · Ted Strickland 25.0	poll arch
8/21/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3549d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3549d old Poll was fielded 3549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 48.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
8/19/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	997	±3.9	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3551d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3551d old Poll was fielded 3551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 46.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	812	±3.4	unknown	3563d oldtracks editorial consensus 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 49.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	889	±3.3	unknown	3563d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 48.0 · Ted Strickland 43.0	poll arch
7/24/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1334	±2.7	unknown	3577d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3577d old Poll was fielded 3577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 43.0 · Ted Strickland 38.0	poll arch
7/20/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3581d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3581d old Poll was fielded 3581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 37.0 · Ted Strickland 33.0	poll arch
7/15/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1104	±3.5	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3586d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3586d old Poll was fielded 3586 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 41.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
7/11/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	955	±3.2	unknown	3590d oldtracks editorial consensus 3590d old Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 47.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
7/10/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	848	±3.4	unknown	3591d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3591d old Poll was fielded 3591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 44.0 · Ted Strickland 44.0	poll arch
6/23/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	unknown	3608d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3608d old Poll was fielded 3608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 40.0 · Ted Strickland 39.0	poll arch
6/20/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	300	±5.7	unknown	no scored pollsn=300+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 3611d old Poll was fielded 3611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 40.0 · Ted Strickland 43.0	poll arch
6/19/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	971	±3.1	unknown	3612d oldtracks editorial consensus 3612d old Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 42.0 · Ted Strickland 42.0	poll arch
6/9/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	781	±3.4	unknown	3622d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3622d old Poll was fielded 3622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 46.0 · Ted Strickland 42.0	poll arch
5/8/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1042	±3.0	unknown	3654d oldtracks editorial consensus 3654d old Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 42.0 · Ted Strickland 43.0	poll arch
4/27/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.2	unknown	3665d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3665d old Poll was fielded 3665 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 38.0 · Ted Strickland 38.0	poll arch
4/7/2016	Hart Research Associates	1.00	—	500	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls3685d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3685d old Poll was fielded 3685 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 47.0 · Ted Strickland 45.0	poll arch
3/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1248	±2.8	unknown	3717d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3717d old Poll was fielded 3717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 40.0 · Ted Strickland 41.0	poll arch
3/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1248	±2.8	unknown	3717d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3717d old Poll was fielded 3717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 42.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 30.0	poll arch
2/20/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1539	±2.5	unknown	3732d oldn=1,539+1 3732d old Poll was fielded 3732 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,539 Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 42.0 · Ted Strickland 44.0	poll arch
2/20/2016	Baldwin Wallace University	0.47	—(D+8.5)	825	±3.4	unknown	weight 0.474 scored polls+2 weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3732d old Poll was fielded 3732 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 44.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0	poll arch
2/20/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1539	±2.5	unknown	3732d oldn=1,539+1 3732d old Poll was fielded 3732 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,539 Sample size of 1,539 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 48.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 29.0	poll arch
2/20/2016	Baldwin Wallace University	0.47	—(D+8.5)	825	±3.4	unknown	weight 0.474 scored polls+2 weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3732d old Poll was fielded 3732 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 51.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 26.0	poll arch
10/28/2015	Democracy Corps	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3847d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3847d old Poll was fielded 3847 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 47.0 · Ted Strickland 47.0	poll arch
10/5/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1180	±2.9	unknown	3870d oldtracks editorial consensus 3870d old Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 49.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 27.0	poll arch
9/16/2015	Harstad Strategic Research	1.00	—	813	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls3889d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3889d old Poll was fielded 3889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 43.0 · Ted Strickland 46.0	poll arch
8/18/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1096	±3.0	unknown	3918d oldtracks editorial consensus 3918d old Poll was fielded 3918 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 41.0 · Ted Strickland 44.0	poll arch
8/18/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1096	±3.0	unknown	3918d oldtracks editorial consensus 3918d old Poll was fielded 3918 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 46.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 25.0	poll arch
6/15/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1191	±2.8	unknown	3982d oldtracks editorial consensus 3982d old Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 40.0 · Ted Strickland 46.0	poll arch
6/15/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1191	±2.8	unknown	3982d oldtracks editorial consensus 3982d old Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 49.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 24.0	poll arch
6/7/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	859	±3.3	unknown	3990d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3990d old Poll was fielded 3990 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 43.0 · Ted Strickland 41.0	poll arch
6/7/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	859	±3.3	unknown	3990d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3990d old Poll was fielded 3990 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 46.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 28.0	poll arch
6/7/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	859	±3.3	unknown	3990d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3990d old Poll was fielded 3990 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ken Blackwell 36.0 · Ted Strickland 46.0	poll arch
3/28/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1077	±3.0	unknown	4061d oldtracks editorial consensus 4061d old Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 39.0 · Ted Strickland 48.0	poll arch
3/28/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1077	±3.0	unknown	4061d oldtracks editorial consensus 4061d old Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rob Portman 47.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 24.0	poll arch
3/3/2015	Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)	1.00	—	946	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4086d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4086d old Poll was fielded 4086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rob Portman 45.0 · Ted Strickland 45.0	poll arch
3/3/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	946	±3.2	unknown	4086d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4086d old Poll was fielded 4086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Portman 50.0 · P.G. Sittenfeld 31.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Nov 2	—	-3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 7	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 7	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi