Races · Senate · 2016 · NH

Senate · class II · open seat

Maggie Hassan vs Kelly Ayotte

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Tossup — · 89 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 89 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 89 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:89 of 89 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	696	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 51.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	707	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 49.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	672	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 41.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	±3.0	unknown	3473d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	645	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3473d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	588	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3474d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	515	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3475d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	672	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 38.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1001	±2.0	unknown	3476d oldtracks editorial consensus 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3476d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3476d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	466	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 41.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	UMass Lowell/7News	1.00	—	695	±4.3	LV	no scored polls3476d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	658	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 37.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	781	±3.5	unknown	3477d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	468	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	500	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3477d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 51.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	635	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 38.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	513	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	659	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 38.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	463	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3479d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	641	±3.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3479d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
10/29/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	516	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3480d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3480d old Poll was fielded 3480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	InsideSources/NH Journal	1.00	—	408	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3481d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: NH Journal Commissioned by NH Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
10/25/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.9	unknown	3484d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3484d old Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 50.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
10/25/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	401	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3484d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3484d old Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	768	±3.5	LV	3485d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
10/21/2016	UMass Amherst/WBZ	1.00	—	772	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3488d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3488d old Poll was fielded 3488 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
10/19/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	900	±3.2	unknown	3490d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3490d old Poll was fielded 3490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
10/17/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	770	±3.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3492d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3492d old Poll was fielded 3492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 39.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	569	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	501	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3497d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	7News/UMass Lowell	1.00	—	517	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3498d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
10/9/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3500d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3500d old Poll was fielded 3500 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
10/5/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3504d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3504d old Poll was fielded 3504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 41.0	poll arch
9/29/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	502	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3510d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3510d old Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
9/27/2016	GBA Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3512d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3512d old Poll was fielded 3512 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
9/25/2016	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	522	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls3514d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3514d old Poll was fielded 3514 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	400	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3519d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	737	±3.6	unknown	3531d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 52.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
9/5/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.9	unknown	3534d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3534d old Poll was fielded 3534 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
8/31/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	585	±4.1	unknown	3539d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3539d old Poll was fielded 3539 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	977	±3.0	unknown	3542d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	433	±4.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3542d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	433	±4.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3542d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Jim Rubens 27.0 · Maggie Hassan 51.0	poll arch
8/12/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	990	±4.3	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3558d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3558d old Poll was fielded 3558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 41.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
8/8/2016	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	820	±3.4	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned3562d old+1 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3562d old Poll was fielded 3562 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	802	±3.5	unknown	3563d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
8/1/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	609	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3569d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3569d old Poll was fielded 3569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 40.0 · Maggie Hassan 50.0	poll arch
7/27/2016	GBA Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3574d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3574d old Poll was fielded 3574 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
7/21/2016	InsideSources/NH Journal	1.00	—	1166	±5.1	unknown	no scored polls3580d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3580d old Poll was fielded 3580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: NH Journal Commissioned by NH Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Maggie Hassan 41.0	poll arch
7/18/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	469	±4.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3583d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3583d old Poll was fielded 3583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
7/18/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	469	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3583d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3583d old Poll was fielded 3583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Jim Rubens 30.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
6/28/2016	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	533	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls3603d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3603d old Poll was fielded 3603 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Kelly Ayotte 51.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
6/23/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	578	±4.1	unknown	3608d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3608d old Poll was fielded 3608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
6/20/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	300	±5.7	unknown	no scored pollsn=300+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 3611d old Poll was fielded 3611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
6/16/2016	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3615d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3615d old Poll was fielded 3615 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 49.0	poll arch
6/9/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	649	±3.9	unknown	3622d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3622d old Poll was fielded 3622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
5/28/2016	Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University	1.00	—	405	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3634d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3634d old Poll was fielded 3634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Franklin Pierce University Commissioned by Franklin Pierce University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 47.0	poll arch
5/26/2016	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3636d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3636d old Poll was fielded 3636 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	501	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3647d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
4/17/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	553	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3675d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
4/17/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	553	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3675d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Jim Rubens 30.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
4/16/2016	Dartmouth College	1.00	—	362	±5.2	unknown	no scored pollsn=362+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=362 Sample size of 362 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.2pt — wider than typical. 3676d old Poll was fielded 3676 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 37.0 · Maggie Hassan 35.0	poll arch
2/28/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	628	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3724d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3724d old Poll was fielded 3724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 41.0	poll arch
1/28/2016	Marist Poll	1.00	—	2258	±2.1	unknown	no scored polls3755d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3755d old Poll was fielded 3755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,258 Sample size of 2,258 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 40.0	poll arch
1/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	3777d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3777d old Poll was fielded 3777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
12/2/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	990	±3.1	unknown	3812d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3812d old Poll was fielded 3812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 42.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
10/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	3857d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3857d old Poll was fielded 3857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 43.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
10/6/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1035	±3.1	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3869d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3869d old Poll was fielded 3869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 52.0 · Maggie Hassan 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2015	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	519	±4.3	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3873d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3873d old Poll was fielded 3873 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 43.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 43.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Chris Pappas 31.0	poll arch
7/20/2015	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	472	±4.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3947d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3947d old Poll was fielded 3947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 41.0	poll arch
7/6/2015	The Tarrance Group	3.77	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls3961d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3961d old Poll was fielded 3961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Kelly Ayotte 51.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
6/28/2015	Fabrizio, Lee and Associates	1.00	—	500	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls3969d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3969d old Poll was fielded 3969 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 52.0 · Maggie Hassan 41.0	poll arch
5/22/2015	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	524	±4.3	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4006d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4006d old Poll was fielded 4006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 43.0	poll arch
4/22/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1117	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4036d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4036d old Poll was fielded 4036 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 51.0 · Maggie Hassan 43.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Ann McLane Kuster 38.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ovide Lamontagne 35.0 · Maggie Hassan 54.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ovide Lamontagne 39.0 · Ann McLane Kuster 43.0	poll arch
3/19/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1110	±5.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4070d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4070d old Poll was fielded 4070 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
2/18/2015	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	424	±4.7	unknown	no scored polls4099d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4099d old Poll was fielded 4099 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 45.0	poll arch
2/10/2015	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	887	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4107d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4107d old Poll was fielded 4107 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 48.0	poll arch
12/1/2014	New England College	0.72	—(R+3.0)	541	±4.2	unknown	4 scored polls4178d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4178d old Poll was fielded 4178 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Kelly Ayotte 48.0 · Maggie Hassan 43.0	poll arch
1/12/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1354	±2.7	unknown	4501d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4501d old Poll was fielded 4501 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Maggie Hassan 40.0	poll arch
9/16/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1038	±3.0	unknown	4619d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4619d old Poll was fielded 4619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Maggie Hassan 44.0	poll arch
4/21/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	933	±3.2	unknown	4767d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4767d old Poll was fielded 4767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kelly Ayotte 44.0 · Maggie Hassan 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 2	—	0.0	—
Inside Elections	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 7	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi