Races · Senate · 2016 · NV

Senate · class II · open seat

Catherine Cortez Masto vs Joe Heck

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Tossup — · 58 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 58 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 58 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:58 of 58 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1207	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 50.0 · Joe Heck 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1158	±2.9	LV	bias D+2.9pt3472d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Joe Heck 43.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1124	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Joe Heck 46.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	±3.9	LV	3473d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 48.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1016	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Joe Heck 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	937	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 48.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	688	±3.7	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3477d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 44.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	JMC Analytics & Polling	1.00	R	600	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Joe Heck 43.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	892	±3.0	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 41.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	790	±3.5	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 49.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	994	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1010	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
10/27/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	550	±4.1	LV	3482d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3482d old Poll was fielded 3482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Joe Heck 48.0	poll arch
10/25/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	875	±3.3	RV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedbias D+2.9pt+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3484d old Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Catherine Cortez Masto 50.0 · Joe Heck 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	707	±3.7	LV	bias D+2.4pt3485d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Joe Heck 49.0	poll arch
10/23/2016	Bendixen & Amandi International	1.00	—	800	±3.5	LV	no scored polls3486d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3486d old Poll was fielded 3486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Joe Heck 44.0	poll arch
10/22/2016	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	826	±3.5	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedbias R+2.1pt+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 3487d old Poll was fielded 3487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Joe Heck 41.0	poll arch
10/17/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	413	±4.8	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt3492d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3492d old Poll was fielded 3492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Joe Heck 45.0	poll arch
10/15/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	698	±3.5	LV	3494d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3494d old Poll was fielded 3494 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 52.0 · Joe Heck 45.0	poll arch
10/14/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	996	±4.5	LV	historical bias D+3.4pt3495d old+2 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3495d old Poll was fielded 3495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 39.0 · Joe Heck 39.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	JMC Analytics & Polling	1.00	R	600	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 40.0 · Joe Heck 35.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	600	±4.0	RV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	1010	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3498d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Joe Heck 40.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	986	±3.1	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3498d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Joe Heck 39.0	poll arch
10/4/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	700	±3.6	LV	3505d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3505d old Poll was fielded 3505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Joe Heck 45.0	poll arch
10/2/2016	Hart Research Associates	1.00	—	700	±3.2	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3507d old Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
9/29/2016	Bendixen & Amandi International	1.00	—	800	±3.5	LV	no scored polls3510d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3510d old Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
9/29/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	LV	3510d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3510d old Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 35.0 · Joe Heck 38.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	704	±3.5	LV	bias D+2.6pt3519d old+1 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 36.0 · Joe Heck 43.0	poll arch
9/18/2016	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	800	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedbias R+2.1pt+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 3521d old Poll was fielded 3521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 40.0 · Joe Heck 44.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	398	±4.9	LV	3 scored pollsn=398+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. n=398 Sample size of 398 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 39.0 · Joe Heck 43.0	poll arch
9/13/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	406	±4.9	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt3526d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3526d old Poll was fielded 3526 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Joe Heck 46.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	GQR Research	1.00	L	600	±4.0	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	627	±3.9	LV	bias D+2.4pt3531d old+2 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
9/7/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	815	±3.4	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3532d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3532d old Poll was fielded 3532 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Joe Heck 41.0	poll arch
8/17/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	LV	3553d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3553d old Poll was fielded 3553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 37.0 · Joe Heck 37.0	poll arch
8/5/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	993	±4.6	LV	historical bias D+3.4pt3565d old+2 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3565d old Poll was fielded 3565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 35.0 · Joe Heck 38.0	poll arch
7/31/2016	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedbias R+2.1pt+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 3570d old Poll was fielded 3570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Joe Heck 42.0	poll arch
7/24/2016	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedbias R+2.1pt+3 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 3577d old Poll was fielded 3577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 37.0 · Joe Heck 46.0	poll arch
7/10/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	408	±4.9	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt3591d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3591d old Poll was fielded 3591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 40.0 · Joe Heck 42.0	poll arch
6/20/2016	GQR Research	1.00	L	300	±5.7	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 3611d old Poll was fielded 3611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Joe Heck 46.0	poll arch
5/25/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1637	±2.0	RV	bias D+2.9pt3637d old+3 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3637d old Poll was fielded 3637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=1,637 Sample size of 1,637 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Joe Heck 43.0	poll arch
2/15/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1366	±3.0	LV	bias D+2.9pt3737d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3737d old Poll was fielded 3737 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Joe Heck 44.0	poll arch
2/15/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1366	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3737d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3737d old Poll was fielded 3737 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Sharron Angle 33.0	poll arch
12/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	909	±3.0	LV	bias D+2.9pt3787d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3787d old Poll was fielded 3787 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 37.0 · Joe Heck 47.0	poll arch
12/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	909	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3787d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3787d old Poll was fielded 3787 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Sharron Angle 32.0	poll arch
7/14/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	677	±3.8	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3953d old+2 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 3953d old Poll was fielded 3953 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Joe Heck 41.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Dina Titus 54.0 · Sharron Angle 31.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Dina Titus 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Dina Titus 48.0 · Michael Roberson 41.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Dina Titus 37.0 · Brian Sandoval 55.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 53.0 · Sharron Angle 30.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 39.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Michael Roberson 35.0	poll arch
3/27/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4062d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4062d old Poll was fielded 4062 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Catherine Cortez Masto 37.0 · Brian Sandoval 53.0	poll arch
2/22/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	955	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4095d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4095d old Poll was fielded 4095 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Harry Reid 45.0 · Brian Krolicki 46.0	poll arch
2/22/2015	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	955	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4095d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4095d old Poll was fielded 4095 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Harry Reid 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 48.0	poll arch
7/29/2014	Harper Polling	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4303d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4303d old Poll was fielded 4303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Harry Reid 43.0 · Brian Sandoval 53.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 2	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 7	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi