Races · Governor · 2016 · NH

Governor · open seat

Colin Van Ostern vs Chris Sununu

← ND Governor UT Governor →

Tossup — · 51 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 51 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 51 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:51 of 51 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	696	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Colin Van Ostern 55.0 · Chris Sununu 42.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	707	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 48.0 · Chris Sununu 37.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	645	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3473d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 47.0 · Chris Sununu 38.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	588	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3474d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 47.0 · Chris Sununu 37.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	513	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 44.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	659	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Colin Van Ostern 53.0 · Chris Sununu 43.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	463	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3479d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 43.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	641	±3.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3479d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 43.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
10/29/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	516	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3480d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3480d old Poll was fielded 3480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 42.0 · Chris Sununu 41.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	NH Journal	1.00	—	408	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls3481d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. no direct cite We don't have a direct link to this pollster's primary release for this poll — only the Wikipedia source page that aggregates it.	Colin Van Ostern 42.0 · Chris Sununu 45.0	wiki
10/25/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	401	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3484d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3484d old Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Colin Van Ostern 48.0 · Chris Sununu 43.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	768	±3.5	LV	3485d oldlikely-voter screen+2 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Colin Van Ostern 47.0 · Chris Sununu 46.0	poll arch
10/21/2016	UMass Amherst/WBZ	1.00	—	772	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3488d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3488d old Poll was fielded 3488 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Colin Van Ostern 44.0 · Chris Sununu 43.0	poll arch
10/17/2016	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	770	±3.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3492d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3492d old Poll was fielded 3492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 44.0 · Chris Sununu 38.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	569	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Colin Van Ostern 53.0 · Chris Sununu 43.0	poll arch
10/12/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	501	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3497d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Colin Van Ostern 47.0 · Chris Sununu 44.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	7News/UMass Lowell	1.00	—	517	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3498d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Colin Van Ostern 39.0 · Chris Sununu 41.0	poll arch
10/5/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3504d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3504d old Poll was fielded 3504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Colin Van Ostern 36.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
9/29/2016	WBUR/MassINC	1.53	—(R+1.5)	502	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3510d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3510d old Poll was fielded 3510 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Colin Van Ostern 44.0 · Chris Sununu 47.0	poll arch
9/25/2016	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	522	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls3514d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3514d old Poll was fielded 3514 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Colin Van Ostern 44.0 · Chris Sununu 45.0	poll arch
9/20/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	400	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3519d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3519d old Poll was fielded 3519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Colin Van Ostern 43.0 · Chris Sununu 49.0	poll arch
1/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	3777d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3777d old Poll was fielded 3777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 35.0 · Chris Sununu 39.0	poll arch
1/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	3777d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3777d old Poll was fielded 3777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 31.0 · Frank Edelblut 24.0	poll arch
1/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	3777d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3777d old Poll was fielded 3777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 36.0 · Chris Sununu 38.0	poll arch
1/6/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1036	±3.0	unknown	3777d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3777d old Poll was fielded 3777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 30.0 · Frank Edelblut 25.0	poll arch
12/2/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	990	±3.1	unknown	3812d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3812d old Poll was fielded 3812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 34.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
12/2/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	990	±3.1	unknown	3812d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3812d old Poll was fielded 3812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 33.0 · Frank Edelblut 24.0	poll arch
12/2/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	990	±3.1	unknown	3812d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3812d old Poll was fielded 3812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mark Connolly 36.0 · Chris Sununu 40.0	poll arch
12/2/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	990	±3.1	unknown	3812d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3812d old Poll was fielded 3812 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 30.0 · Frank Edelblut 26.0	poll arch
10/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	3857d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3857d old Poll was fielded 3857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 34.0 · Chris Sununu 41.0	poll arch
10/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	3857d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3857d old Poll was fielded 3857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Stefany Shaheen 37.0 · Jeb Bradley 39.0	poll arch
10/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	3857d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3857d old Poll was fielded 3857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Stefany Shaheen 40.0 · Chris Sununu 41.0	poll arch
10/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	3857d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3857d old Poll was fielded 3857 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 31.0 · Jeb Bradley 40.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 32.0 · Chris Sununu 39.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Jeb Bradley 39.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 48.0 · Chris Sununu 41.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Chris Pappas 33.0 · Jeb Bradley 38.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Chris Pappas 34.0 · Chris Sununu 38.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terie Norelli 33.0 · Jeb Bradley 39.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terie Norelli 34.0 · Chris Sununu 39.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	841	±3.4	unknown	3912d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 31.0 · Jeb Bradley 38.0	poll arch
7/20/2015	WMUR/UNH	0.77	L(D+5.1)	472	±4.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt3947d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3947d old Poll was fielded 3947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 22 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Colin Van Ostern 26.0 · Chris Sununu 36.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 34.0 · Chris Sununu 37.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 53.0 · Jeb Bradley 36.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 55.0 · Donnalee Lozeau 25.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maggie Hassan 52.0 · Chris Sununu 35.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 31.0 · Jeb Bradley 37.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 32.0 · Donnalee Lozeau 26.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jackie Cilley 36.0 · Chris Sununu 37.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 31.0 · Jeb Bradley 37.0	poll arch
4/13/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	747	±3.6	unknown	4045d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4045d old Poll was fielded 4045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colin Van Ostern 31.0 · Donnalee Lozeau 27.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Aug 12	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi