| 11/7/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 1479 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3471d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Gary Herbert 58.0 · Mike Weinholtz 38.0 | pollarch |
| 11/3/2016 | Y2 Analytics → | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3475d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Gary Herbert 64.0 · Mike Weinholtz 26.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 1078 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3478d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Gary Herbert 61.0 · Mike Weinholtz 35.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2016 | UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | 1.00 | — | 818 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3491d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3491d old Poll was fielded 3491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Gary Herbert 64.0 · Mike Weinholtz 25.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2016 | Monmouth University | 1.00 | —(D+5.0) | 403 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+5.0pt🟡3497d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3497d old Poll was fielded 3497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Gary Herbert 63.0 · Mike Weinholtz 30.0 | pollarch |
| 9/9/2016 | UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | 1.00 | — | 605 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3530d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3530d old Poll was fielded 3530 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Gary Herbert 62.0 · Mike Weinholtz 24.0 | pollarch |
| 8/21/2016 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 1018 | ±3.1 | unknown | 🟡3549d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
3549d old Poll was fielded 3549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Gary Herbert 57.0 · Mike Weinholtz 21.0 | pollarch |
| 6/8/2016 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1238 | ±2.8 | unknown | 🟡3623d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
3623d old Poll was fielded 3623 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Gary Herbert 55.0 · Mike Weinholtz 34.0 | pollarch |
| 6/8/2016 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1238 | ±2.8 | unknown | 🟡3623d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
3623d old Poll was fielded 3623 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jonathan Johnson 38.0 · Mike Weinholtz 35.0 | pollarch |
| 6/1/2016 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 1519 | ±2.5 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡3630d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
3630d old Poll was fielded 3630 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
n=1,519 Sample size of 1,519 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Gary Herbert 56.0 · Mike Weinholtz 29.0 | pollarch |
| 6/1/2016 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 1519 | ±2.5 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡3630d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
3630d old Poll was fielded 3630 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
n=1,519 Sample size of 1,519 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Jonathan Johnson 40.0 · Mike Weinholtz 29.0 | pollarch |
| 4/7/2015 | UtahPolicy/Dan Jones | 1.00 | — | 601 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4051d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4051d old Poll was fielded 4051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Gary Herbert 57.0 · Jim Matheson 33.0 | pollarch |