Pollster · 9 of 1053

Emerson College

GRADE A− NEUTRAL LEAN ★ AAPOR TI MEMBER
↗ official site ↗ Wikipedia ↗ AAPOR profile
Polls scored
435
Mean error
3.6 pt
Signed bias
D+0.71
Aggregation weight
1.00

Pollster vs prediction market

From 435 race-polls · 20 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
58.5%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.9 pt
Average move within 24h of release
Market alignment
+2.8 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Emerson College's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
77
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 50
Verification rate 70
Sample size median 89
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 99
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 234 graded races, Emerson College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -0.2pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
-0.2pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
7.3pp
N graded
234
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2026-flus-governor-2026-flus-governor-2026-fl
Recent activity
Total all time
435
Last 30d
1
Last 90d
20
Last 180d
37

Last poll 4/15/2026 (24d ago) · status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2024 #8 / 26 17 3.09 pt D+2.99 pp
2022 #13 / 36 38 3.53 pt R+0.93 pp
2020 #7 / 20 8 4.95 pt D+4.86 pp
2018 #7 / 25 32 3.40 pt ±0
2016 #6 / 19 21 3.79 pt D+1.58 pp
Recent polls