Pollster · 9 of 1769
Emerson College
Polls scored
124
Mean error
4.1 pt
Signed bias
D+0.93
Aggregation weight
1.11
Pollster vs prediction market
From 684 race-polls · 56 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
66.5%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
-0.8 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+3.3 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Emerson College's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components69
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 271 graded races, Emerson College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.8pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.8pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
7.9pp
N graded
271
Recent activity
Total all time
684
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
31
Last 180d
121
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #8 / 26 | 17 | 3.09 pt | D+2.99 pp |
| 2022 | #14 / 36 | 39 | 3.59 pt | R+1.06 pp |
| 2020 | #7 / 20 | 8 | 4.95 pt | D+4.86 pp |
| 2018 | #7 / 25 | 32 | 3.40 pt | ±0 |
| 2016 | #6 / 19 | 21 | 3.79 pt | D+1.58 pp |
Recent polls
- 5/29/2026California · Governor · 2026Becerra 28.0 · Hilton 21.0 · Steyer 22.0 · Bianco 12.0 · Porter 5.0 · Mahan 5.0 · Villaraigosa 2.0 · Thurmond 1.0
- 5/27/2026California · Governor · 2026Xavier Becerra 28.0 · Chad Bianco 12.0 · Steve Hilton 23.0 · Matt Mahan 5.0 · Katie Porter 5.0 · Tom Steyer 23.0 · Tony Thurmond 1.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 3.0
- 5/20/2026South Dakota · Governor · 2026Rhoden 19.0 · Doeden 26.0 · Johnson 23.0 · Hansen 16.0
- 5/19/2026Rhode Island · Governor · 2026Foulkes 40.0 · McKee 20.0
- 5/18/2026South Dakota · Governor · 2026Toby Doeden 26.0 · Jon Hansen 16.0 · Dusty Johnson 23.0 · Larry Rhoden 19.0
- 5/16/2026NY-7 · House · 2026Vichal Kumar 1.0 · Antonio Reynoso 21.0 · Julie Won 13.0 · Claire Valdez 23.0
- 5/16/2026NY-10 · House · 2026Dan Goldman 23.0 · Brad Lander 57.0
- 5/16/2026NY-12 · House · 2026Alex Bores 20.0 · George Conway 10.0 · Micah Lasher 22.0 · Jack Schlossberg 11.0
- 5/12/2026California · Governor · 2026Becerra 19.0 · Hilton 17.0 · Steyer 17.0 · Bianco 11.0 · Porter 10.0 · Mahan 8.0 · Villaraigosa 4.0 · Thurmond 1.0
- 5/9/2026California · Governor · 2026Xavier Becerra 20.0 · Chad Bianco 12.0 · Steve Hilton 18.0 · Matt Mahan 9.0 · Katie Porter 13.0 · Tom Steyer 19.0 · Tony Thurmond 1.0 · Antonio Villaraigosa 5.0