Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+21.0 (10th pctile) to D+53.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
52.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured52.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +37.1
80% CI: D +21.0 → D +53.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +48.7
80% CI D +33.3 → D +53.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-07 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 36 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet36
Endorsements tracked
Claire Valdez36 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total36
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DClaire Valdez36 endorsers
Most notable · Jabari Brisport · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- A New Policy PAC
- AFA-CWA
- AFGE · Local 3369
- American Priorities
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Christopher Street Project
- DRUM Beats
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers
- Jewish Voice for Peace
- Justice Democrats
- Leaders We Deserve
- New York City Democratic Socialists of America
- OPEIU · Local 153
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- Track Oil PACs
- United Auto Workers
Elected officials8
Federal 1State 6Local 1
Elected officials · 8
- Jabari Brisport · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
- Michael Gianaris · state senator from the 12th district (2011-present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Chris Rabb · state representative from Pennsylvania 's 200th district (2017–present)
- Diana Moreno · state assemblymember from the 36th district (2026–present)
- Emily Gallagher · state assemblymember from the 50th district (2021–present)
- Phara Souffrant Forrest · state assemblymember from the 57th district (2021–present)
- Zohran Mamdani · mayor of New York City (2026–present)
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Darializa Avila Chevalier · community organizer
- Mahmoud Khalil · activist
- Sara Nelson · president of the Association of Flight Attendants
- Shawn Fain · president of United Auto Workers (2023–present)
- Zephyr Teachout · attorney and political advocate
Other2
Other · 2
- Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption
- Julia Salazar · New York state assemblymember from the 18th district (2019–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Claire ValdezH6NY07214 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$928.6K
Cash on hand
$418.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$953.1K
D side
$953.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
AMERICAN PRIORITIES…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) other · boosts D
| D | $427.9K | 45% | for Claire Valdez |
| Justice Democrats PAC other · boosts D
| D | $278.5K | 29% | for Claire Valdez |
| Leaders We Deserve other · boosts D
| D | $175.0K | 18% | for Claire Valdez |
| NEW YORKERS FOR LOWER COSTS other · boosts D
| D | $70.0K | 7% | for Claire Valdez |
| Christopher Street Project PAC other · boosts D
| D | $1.7K | 0% | for Claire Valdez |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements77 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks