Races · Governor · 2026 · RI

Governor · open seat

Dan McKee vs Aaron Guckian

← PA Governor SC Governor →

Safe D D +15.0 · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 6 markets Last poll 24d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 92% D

safe-d · high-tipping · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

D +19.6

80% CI: D +2.1 → D +37.1 · win prob 92%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +15.5

80% CI D +10.0 → D +18.6

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +15.0

80% CI D +12.2 → D +17.8

CV MAE 2.20

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

D +19.6

80% CI D +2.1 → D +37.1

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:2 of 2 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
4/16/2026	Opinion Diagnostics	1.00	R	802	—	LV	no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Dan McKee 28.0 · Aaron Guckian 15.0 · Ken Block 20.0	poll arch
4/16/2026	Opinion Diagnostics	1.00	R	802	—	LV	no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Helena Foulkes 33.0 · Aaron Guckian 16.0 · Ken Block 18.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Sep 11	+15.0	+18.0	-3.0
Inside Elections	Safe D	Aug 28	+15.0	+18.0	-3.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Mar 19	+15.0	+18.0	-3.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 3 weeks ago (4/16/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Safe D D+15.0 via polls