Races · Governor · 2026 · CA
Governor · open seat

California Governor

← AZ Governor CA Governor →
Lean R R +2.3 · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 40 markets Last poll 13d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 85% D

lean-r · high-tipping · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +4.4
80% CI: D +0.0 → D +8.8 · win prob 85%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ3.44pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +1.4
80% CI R +11.7 → D +14.7
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.1
80% CI R +3.0 → R +1.3
CV MAE 0.64
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +4.4
80% CI D +0.0 → D +8.8
CV MAE 3.44

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 298 total
Eric Swalwell (D)
298 endorsements · source
Elected officials (32)
  • Art Agnos — former mayor of San Francisco (1988–1992) [ 223 ]
  • Ashleigh Aitken — mayor of Anaheim (2022–present) [ 85 ]
  • Barbara Boxer — former U.S. senator from California (1993–2017) (campaign co-chair; previously endorsed Kounalakis) [ 190 ]
  • Barbara Lee — mayor of Oakland (2025–present) [ 187 ]
  • Caroline Torosis — mayor of Santa Monica (2022–present) (endorsement rescinded) [ 100 ] [ a ]
  • Chris Ward — former speaker pro tempore of the California State Assembly (2022–2023) from AD-78 (2020–present) (previously endorsed Atkins) [ 168 ]
  • Cruz Bustamante — former lieutenant governor of California (1999–2007) [ 85 ]
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 114 ]
  • Fabian Núñez — former speaker of the California State Assembly (2004–2008) from AD-46 (2002–2008) [ 85 ]
  • Fred Keeley — mayor of Santa Cruz (2023–present) (co-endorsement with Yee) [ 85 ]
  • Gavin Newsom — governor of California (2019–present) [ 259 ]
  • Gloria Romero — former majority leader of the California Senate (2005–2008) from SD-24 (2001–2010) (candidate's running mate) [ d ] [ 85 ]
  • Hillary Clinton — former U.S. secretary of state (2009–2013) and U.S. senator from New York (2001–2009) [ 220 ]
  • James T. Butts Jr. — mayor of Inglewood (2011–present) (Independent) [ 85 ]
  • Jared Polis — governor of Colorado (2019–present) [ 122 ]
  • Jerry Dyer — mayor of Fresno (2021–present) (Republican) [ 85 ]
  • John Podesta — former White House chief of staff (1998–2001) and senior advisor to the president for international climate policy (2024–2025) [ 158 ]
  • John Pérez — former speaker of the California State Assembly (2010–2014) from AD-53 (2008–2014) [ 85 ]
  • Karen Bass — mayor of Los Angeles (2022–present) [ 191 ]
  • Kevin McCarty — mayor of Sacramento (2024–present) [ 220 ]
  • Lisa Middleton — former mayor of Palm Springs (2021–2022) [ 85 ]
  • Marqueece Harris-Dawson — president of the Los Angeles City Council (2024–present) from the 8th district (2015–present) [ 85 ]
  • Nina Turner — former state senator from Ohio's 25th district (2008–2014) (Democratic) [ 197 ]
  • R. Rex Parris — mayor of Lancaster (2008–present) (Republican) [ 85 ]
  • Raj Salwan — mayor of Fremont (2024–present) [ 85 ]
  • Rick Caruso — founder of Caruso and runner-up for mayor of Los Angeles in 2022 [ 39 ]
  • Robert A. Rivas — speaker of the state assembly (2023–present) from AD-29 (2018–present) [ 90 ]
  • Spencer Pratt — reality TV star and candidate for mayor of Los Angeles [ 85 ]
  • Sukhee Kang — former mayor of Irvine (2008–2012) [ 85 ]
  • Tina Kotek — governor of Oregon (2023–present) [ 207 ]
  • Todd Gloria — mayor of San Diego (2013–2014, 2020–present) [ 186 ]
  • Toni Atkins — former gubernatorial candidate and president pro tempore of the California State Senate (2018–2024) from SD-39 (2016–2024) [ 18 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • Los Angeles Sentinel — [ 85 ]
  • Vinod Khosla — co-founder of Sun Microsystems [ 127 ]
Organizations / unions (41)
  • Amalgamated Transit Union — [ 144 ]
  • American Independent Party — [ 113 ]
  • Andrew Yang — Forward Party founder and 2020 presidential candidate [ 137 ] [ better source needed ]
  • California Democratic Party — [ 260 ]
  • California Dental Association — (endorsement rescinded) [ 256 ] [ a ]
  • California Faculty Association — (co-endorsement with Thurmond) [ 85 ]
  • California Federation of Labor Unions — (co-endorsement with Steyer and Villaraigosa; initially included Swalwell) [ 146 ]
  • California Federation of Teachers — [ 174 ]
  • California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus — [ 210 ]
  • California Medical Association — [ 99 ] (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 100 ]
  • California Nurses Association — [ 173 ]
  • California Republican Party — [ 261 ]
  • California Rifle & Pistol Association — [ 112 ]
  • California School Employees Association — [ 172 ]
  • California State Council of Laborers — [ 94 ]
  • California Teachers Association — (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 175 ]
  • Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles — [ 101 ]
  • Communications Workers of America — District 9 [ 124 ]
  • Green Party of California — [ 199 ]
  • ILWU Southern California District Council — [ 95 ]
  • International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees — [ 176 ]
  • International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers — Western States Council [ 147 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers — Local 441 [ 85 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters — California [ 148 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers — Locals 3, [ 194 ] 12, [ 195 ] 39 and 501 [ 85 ]
  • Jane Fonda Climate PAC — [ 169 ]
  • Laborers' International Union of North America — [ 85 ]
  • National Union of Healthcare Workers — [ 149 ]
  • National Women's Political Caucus — of California [ 85 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 181 ]
  • Orange County Employees Association — [ 150 ]
  • Peace and Freedom Party — [ 157 ]
  • San Diego City Council — Diego City Council [ f ] [ 186 ]
  • Service Employees International Union — California [ 254 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 252 ] [ a ]
  • State Building and Construction Trades Council of California — [ 196 ]
  • Teamsters — Local 348 [ 85 ]
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party — (founded by candidate) [ 224 ]
  • United Association — nited Association [ 192 ]
  • United Auto Workers — Region 6 [ 151 ] [ 152 ]
  • United Domestic Workers — [ 177 ]
  • Western States Regional Council of Carpenters — [ 217 ]
Individuals / celebrities (5)
  • Brian Singerman — partner emeritus at Founders Fund [ 134 ]
  • Jane Fonda — actress and climate activist [ 169 ]
  • John Ratzenberger — actor [ 111 ]
  • Lorenzo Lamas — actor and producer [ 109 ]
  • Michael Brune — former executive director of the Sierra Club [ 158 ]
Other (218)
  • AAPI Victory Fund — [ 85 ]
  • AFSCME — Local 3299 [ 171 ]
  • Aaron Peskin — former member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from the 3rd district (2001–2009, 2015–2025) [ 85 ]
  • Adam Gray — CA-13 (2025–present) [ 234 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 235 ] [ a ]
  • Adam Schiff — California (2025–present) [ 43 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 225 ] [ a ]
  • Adelita Grijalva — AZ-07 (2025–present) [ 237 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 230 ] [ a ]
  • Akilah Weber — SD-39 (2024–present) (previously endorsed Atkins) [ 166 ]
  • Alex Lee — AD-24 (2020–present) [ 164 ]
  • Ali Zaidi — former White House national climate advisor (2022–2025) [ 158 ]
  • Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club — [ 96 ] (previously endorsed Yee) [ 97 ]
  • Ami Bera — CA-6 (2013–present) (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 120 ]
  • Anamarie Avila Farias — AD-15 (2024–present) [ 166 ]
  • Ann Ravel — former member of the Federal Election Commission (2013–2017) [ 39 ]
  • Art Torres — former SD-24 (1982–1994) [ 85 ]
  • Ash Kalra — AD-25 (2016–present) [ 39 ]
  • Betty Yee — former state controller of California (2015–2023) and former gubernatorial candidate [ 162 ]
  • Bill Dodd — SD-03 (2016–2024) [ 220 ]
  • Bill Essayli — first assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California (2025–present) [ 103 ]
  • Bill Johnson — senior pastor of Bethel Church [ 201 ]
  • Bill McKibben — environmentalist [ 158 ]
  • Black Women Organized for Political Action — [ 189 ]
  • Blanca Pacheco — AD-64 (2022–present) [ 87 ]
  • Blanca Rubio — AD-48 (2016–present) [ 87 ]
  • Bob Archuleta — SD-30 (2018–present) (co-endorsement with Villaraigosa; previously endorsed Atkins) [ 85 ]
  • Bob Blumenfield — Los Angeles city councilmember from the 3rd district (2013–present) [ 85 ]
  • Brian Armstrong — CEO of Coinbase [ 127 ]
  • Brian Maienschein — AD-76 (2012–2024) [ 88 ]
  • Brook Byers — senior partner at Kleiner Perkins [ 130 ]
  • California Conference of Machinists — [ 145 ]
  • California Environmental Voters — (co-endorsement with Steyer) [ 18 ]
  • California Professional Firefighters — [ 253 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 100 ] [ a ]
  • Caroline Menjivar — SD-20 (2022–present) [ 18 ]
  • Catherine Blakespear — SD-38 (2022–present) [ 123 ]
  • Catherine Stefani — AD-19 (2024–present) [ 87 ]
  • Cecilia Aguiar-Curry — majority leader of the California State Assembly (2023–present) from AD-04 (2016–present) [ 208 ]
  • Celeste Rodriguez — AD-43 (2024–present) [ 87 ]
  • Center for Biological Diversity — [ 179 ]
  • Charlie Kirk — founder of Turning Point USA (deceased) [ 116 ]
  • Chris Wanstrath — co-founder of Github [ 127 ]
  • Christine Kehoe — SD-39 (2004–2012) [ 211 ]
  • Corey Jackson — AD-60 (2022–present) (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 131 ]
  • Cori Schumacher — former Carlsbad city councilor from the 1st district (2016–2021) [ 215 ]
  • Cottie Petrie-Norris — AD-73 (2018–present) [ 122 ]
  • Courage California — [ 120 ]
  • Curren Price — Los Angeles city councilmember from the 9th district (2013–present) [ 85 ]
  • Curt Hagman — San Bernardino County supervisor from the 4th district (2014–present) [ 104 ]
  • Dan Henderson — professional MMA fighter and wrestler [ 109 ]
  • Darrell Issa — CA-48 (2023–present), CA-50 (2021–2023) [ 103 ]
  • Darshana Patel — AD-76 (2024–present) [ 87 ]
  • Dave Min — CA-47 (2025–present) [ 142 ]
  • David Alvarez — AD-80 (2020–present) [ 87 ] (previously endorsed Atkins) [ 88 ]
  • David Baszucki — co-founder of the Roblox Corporation [ 128 ]
  • David Crane — lecturer [ 131 ]
  • Dean Florez — former SD-16 (2002–2010) [ 85 ]
  • Dennis Hollingsworth — former SD-36 (2002–2010) [ 106 ]
  • Derek Tran — CA-45 (2025–present) [ 143 ]
  • Devon Mathis — former AD-26 (2014–2022) and AD-33 (2022–2024) [ 103 ]
  • Diane Dixon — AD-72 (2022–present) [ 103 ]
  • Diane Papan — AD-21 (2022–present) [ 220 ]
  • Diane Watson — former CA-33 (2001–2011) [ 85 ]
  • Don Barnes — sheriff-coroner of Orange County (2019–present) [ 106 ]
  • Don't Mess With My Children — [ 203 ]
  • Doris Matsui — CA-07 (2005–present) [ 85 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 242 ] [ a ]
  • Drew Houston — CEO of Dropbox [ 132 ]
  • Dylan Field — co-founder of Figma [ 127 ]
  • EMILYs List — [ 153 ]
  • Elect Democratic Women — [ 155 ]
  • Elizabeth Warren — Massachusetts (2013–present) [ 140 ]
  • Eloise Reyes — SD-29 (2024–present) [ 85 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 154 ]
  • Equality California — [ 102 ] (previously declined to endorse) [ 97 ]
  • Esmeralda Soria — AD-27 (2022–present) [ 85 ]
  • Evan Low — AD-26 (2014–2024) [ 186 ]
  • Evan Spiegel — CEO of Snap Inc. [ 132 ]
  • Gail Pellerin — AD-28 (2022–present) (endorsed Yee after Atkins withdrew) [ 209 ]
  • Garry Tan — CEO of Y Combinator [ 128 ]
  • George Arison — co-founder and CEO of Grindr [ 126 ]
  • Gil Cisneros — CA-31 (2025–present) and former CA-39 (2019–2021) [ 85 ]
  • Greg Wallis — AD-47 (2022–present) [ 103 ]
  • Gregg Hart — AD-37 (2022–present) [ 123 ]
  • GrowSF — [ 139 ]
  • Guy Christensen — pro-Palestinian activist and social media influencer [ 198 ]
  • Harj Taggar — group partner at Y Combinator [ 133 ]
  • Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club — [ 97 ]
  • Heath Flora — minority leader of the California Assembly (2025–present) from AD-09 (2022–present) and AD-12 (2016–2022) [ 103 ]
  • Heather Hadwick — AD-01 (2024–present) [ 104 ]
  • Heather Hutt — Los Angeles city councilmember from the 10th district (2022–present) [ 85 ]
  • Henry Stern — SD-27 (2016–present) [ 167 ]
  • Holly Mitchell — Los Angeles County supervisor from the 2nd district (2020–present) [ 214 ]
  • Ian Calderon — former majority leader of the California Assembly (2016–2020) from AD-57 (2012–2020) (entered race in September 2025) [ 185 ] [ e ]
  • Isaac Bryan — former majority leader of the California Assembly (2023) from AD-55 (2021–present) [ 163 ]
  • Jackie Goldberg — former AD-45 (2000–2006) [ 186 ]
  • Jacqui Irwin — AD-42 (2014–present) [ 154 ]
  • Jared Huffman — CA-2 (2013–present) [ 160 ]
  • Jared Moskowitz — FL-23 (2023-present) [ 243 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 244 ] [ a ]
  • Jeremy Liew — retired venture capitalist [ 134 ]
  • Jeremy McGrath — professional motocross and supercross racer [ 110 ]
  • Jerry McNerney — SD-05 (2024–present) and former CA-09 (2007–2023) [ 85 ]
  • Jim Cooper — sheriff of Sacramento County (2022–present) [ 124 ]
  • Jimmy Gomez — CA-34 (2017–present) [ 236 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 225 ] [ a ]
  • Jimmy Panetta — CA-19 (2017–present) [ 236 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 230 ] [ a ]
  • Joaquin Arambula — AD-31 (2016–present) [ 85 ]
  • Joe Lonsdale — co-founder of Palantir [ 130 ]
  • Joe Patterson — AD-05 (2022–present) [ 103 ]
  • Joel Engardio — former San Francisco supervisor from the 4th district (2023–2025) [ 85 ]
  • John A. Sobrato — real estate developer [ 127 ]
  • John Harabedian — AD-41 (2024–present) [ 87 ]
  • John Laird — SD-17 (2020–present) [ 208 ]
  • John Pritzker — investor and son of Jay Pritzker [ 127 ]
  • Jon Voight — special ambassador to Hollywood (2025–present) [ 115 ]
  • Jordan Cunningham — former AD-35 (2016–2022) [ 103 ]
  • Juan Alanis — AD-22 (2022–present) [ 107 ]
  • Juan Carrillo — AD-39 (2022–present) [ 85 ]
  • Juan Vargas — CA-52 (2013–present) [ 206 ]
  • Julia Brownley — CA-26 (2013–present) [ 205 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 230 ] [ a ]
  • Kate Sanchez — AD-71 (2022–present) [ 103 ]
  • Kelly Seyarto — SD-32 (2022–present) [ 104 ]
  • Ken Calvert — CA-41 (1993–present) [ 105 ]
  • Kevin Kiley — CA-03 (2023–present) (Independent) [ c ] [ 116 ]
  • Kevin Mullin — CA-15 (2023–present) [ 236 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 239 ] [ a ]
  • Kyle Vogt — co-founder of Cruise Automation [ 132 ]
  • LPAC — [ 186 ]
  • LaShae Sharp-Collins — AD-79 (2024–present) (previously endorsed Atkins; co-endorsement with Thurmond) [ 166 ] [ 141 ]
  • Lanhee Chen — member of the Amtrak Board of Directors (2024–present) (candidate's policy advisor) [ 85 ]
  • Laura Friedman — CA-30 (2025–present) [ 184 ]
  • Laurie Davies — AD-74 (2020–present) [ 104 ]
  • Leticia Castillo — AD-58 (2024–present) [ 104 ]
  • Linda Sánchez — CA-38 (2003–present) [ 246 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 230 ] [ a ]
  • Liz Ortega — AD-20 (2022–present) [ 165 ]
  • Lola Smallwood-Cuevas — SD-28 (2022–present) [ 93 ]
  • Lori Wilson — AD-11 (2022–present) [ 87 ]
  • Lou Correa — CA-46 (2017–present) (endorsement rescinded) [ 232 ] [ 233 ] [ a ]
  • Lucille Roybal-Allard — former CA-40 (1993–2023) [ 85 ]
  • Maggy Krell — AD-06 (2024–present) [ 123 ]
  • Majority Democrats — [ 138 ]
  • Marc Merrill — co-founder of Riot Games [ 135 ]
  • Mary Bono — former CA-45 (1998–2013) [ 104 ]
  • María Elena Durazo — SD-26 (2018–present) [ 85 ]
  • Matt Dorsey — San Francisco supervisor from the 6th district (2022–present) [ 125 ]
  • Melissa Hurtado — SD-16 (2018–present) [ 85 ]
  • Michael Moritz — venture capitalist [ 130 ]
  • Michael Seibel — co-founder of Justin.tv and Socialcam [ 135 ]
  • Michelle Rodriguez — AD-53 (2024–present) [ 87 ]
  • Mike Fong — AD-49 (2022–present) [ 87 ] (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 89 ]
  • Mike McGuire — SD-02 (2024–present) [ 212 ]
  • Mike Thompson — CA-04 (1999–present) (endorsement rescinded) [ 247 ] [ a ]
  • Nancy Pelosi — CA-11 (1987–present) [ 222 ]
  • Nanette Barragán — CA-44 (2017–present) [ 226 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 227 ] [ a ]
  • Neil Mehta — venture capitalist [ 135 ]
  • Nick Schultz — AD-44 (2024–present) (previously endorsed Swalwell) [ 131 ]
  • Our Revolution — [ 182 ]
  • Paloma Aguirre — San Diego supervisor from the 1st district (2025–present) [ 213 ]
  • Patrick Ahrens — AD-26 (2024–present) [ 164 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 248 ] [ a ]
  • Patrick Collison — CEO of Stripe [ 127 ]
  • Paul Miyamoto — sheriff of San Francisco (2020–present) (Democratic) [ 108 ]
  • Phil Mickelson — professional golfer [ 119 ]
  • Phillip Chen — AD-59 (2016–present) [ 103 ]
  • Pilar Schiavo — AD-40 (2022–present) [ 87 ]
  • Progressive Democrats of America — [ 39 ]
  • Progressive Democrats of California — [ 258 ]
  • Raul Ruiz — CA-25 (2013–present) [ 86 ]
  • Rebecca Solnit — writer and activist [ 170 ]
  • Reed Hastings — co-founder and former CEO of Netflix [ 129 ]
  • Reid Hoffman — co-founder of LinkedIn [ 127 ]
  • Rhodesia Ransom — AD-13 (2024–present) [ 90 ]
  • Richard Roth — SD-31 (2012–2024) [ 208 ]
  • Rick Zbur — AD-51 (2022–present) [ 87 ] (previously endorsed Steyer and Yee) [ 91 ] [ 92 ]
  • Ro Khanna — CA-17 (2017–present) [ 161 ]
  • Robert Garcia — CA-42 (2023–present) [ 141 ]
  • Roberta Achtenberg — former member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights (2011–2016) [ 186 ]
  • Ron Galperin — former city controller of Los Angeles (2013–2022) [ 85 ]
  • Royce Gracie — professional MMA fighter [ 109 ]
  • Ruben Gallego — Arizona (2025-present) [ 181 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 225 ] [ a ]
  • Sabrina Cervantes — SD-31 (2024–present) [ 85 ]
  • Salud Carbajal — CA-24 (2017–present) [ 58 ]
  • Sam Farr — former CA-20 (1993–2017) [ 85 ]
  • Sam Liccardo — CA-16 (2025–present) [ 121 ]
  • San Francisco Bay View — [ 200 ]
  • Scott Cook — co-founder of Intuit [ 130 ]
  • Scott Peters — CA-50 (2013–present) (endorsed Swalwell after Atkins withdrew) [ 204 ] [ 205 ]
  • Scott Wiener — SD-11 (2016–present) [ 210 ]
  • Scott Wilk — former SD-21 (2016–2024) [ 103 ]
  • Sergey Brin — co-founder of Alphabet Inc. and Google [ 129 ]
  • Sharon Quirk-Silva — AD-67 (2022–present) and former AD-65 (2012–2014, 2016–2022) [ 85 ] (endorsed Steyer) [ 93 ]
  • Sheldon Whitehouse — Rhode Island (2007–present) [ 159 ] [ better source needed ]
  • Stephanie Nguyen — AD-10 (2020–present) [ 87 ]
  • Stephen Cloobeck — businessman and former gubernatorial candidate [ 23 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 25 ] [ a ] [ better source needed ]
  • Stephen Strang — founder of Charisma [ 202 ]
  • Steve Bennett — AD-38 (2020–present) [ 101 ]
  • Steve Huffman — CEO of Reddit [ 133 ]
  • Steve Padilla — SD-18 (2022–present) [ 88 ]
  • Stonewall Democrats — Democrats [ 219 ]
  • Stonewall Young Democrats — [ 97 ]
  • Susan Eggman — SD-05 (2020–2024) [ 210 ]
  • Susie Tompkins Buell — entrepeneur [ 96 ]
  • Sydney Kamlager-Dove — CA-37 (2023–present) (endorsement rescinded) [ 238 ] [ a ]
  • Tasha Boerner — AD-77 (2018–present) (previously endorsed Atkins and Swalwell) [ 131 ]
  • Ted Lieu — CA–36 (2013–present) (endorsement rescinded) [ 239 ] [ a ]
  • Terra Lawson-Remer — San Diego County supervisor from the 3rd district (2021–present) [ 186 ]
  • Third Act — California [ 183 ]
  • Thomas Siebel — founder of Siebel Systems [ 136 ] [ better source needed ]
  • Tim McOsker — Los Angeles city councilmember from the 15th district (2022–present) [ 85 ]
  • Tina McKinnor — AD-61 (2022–present) (co-endorsement with Villaraigosa; previously endorsed Swalwell and Atkins) [ 131 ]
  • Tito Ortiz — former professional MMA fighter [ 85 ]
  • Tom Lackey — AD-34 (2022–present) [ 103 ]
  • Tom McClintock — CA-05 (2009–present) [ 117 ]
  • Tom Umberg — SD-34 (2018–present) [ 209 ]
  • Tony Cárdenas — former CA-29 (2013–2025) [ 85 ]
  • Tony Strickland — SD-36 (2008–2012, 2025–present) [ 85 ]
  • Tri Ta — AD-70 (2022–present) [ 104 ]
  • UNITE HERE — [ 178 ]
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — entrepreneur and Ohio gubernatorial candidate [ 116 ]
  • Vote Mama — [ 156 ]
  • Wendy Carrillo — former AD-52 (2017–2024) [ 85 ]
  • William Oberndorf — hedge fund manager [ 127 ]
  • Young Democrats — g Democrats [ 98 ]
  • Zoe Lofgren — CA-18 (1995–present) [ 240 ] (endorsement rescinded) [ 241 ] [ a ]
  • [ 90 ] — r state legislators [ 90 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Jan 23 -2.3 +18.0 -20.3
Inside Elections Safe D Aug 28 -2.3 +18.0 -20.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Sep 4 -2.3 +18.0 -20.3

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 13 days ago (4/27/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean R R+2.3 via polls

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