| 4/24/2026 | TIPP Insights | 1.00 | R | 1159 | ±3.2 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 48.0 · Andy Biggs 38.0 | pollarch |
| 2/26/2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1023 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡73d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
73d old Poll was fielded 73 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 42.0 · Andy Biggs 37.0 | pollarch |
| 2/26/2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1023 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡73d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
73d old Poll was fielded 73 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 44.0 · David Schweikert 35.0 | pollarch |
| 1/24/2026 | Center for Excellence in Polling | 1.00 | — | 519 | ±4.3 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡106d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
106d old Poll was fielded 106 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 50.0 · Andy Biggs 41.0 | pollarch |
| 1/24/2026 | Center for Excellence in Polling | 1.00 | — | 519 | ±4.3 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡106d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
106d old Poll was fielded 106 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 51.0 · David Schweikert 38.0 | pollarch |
| 1/24/2026 | Center for Excellence in Polling | 1.00 | — | 519 | ±4.3 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡106d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
106d old Poll was fielded 106 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 50.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 40.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2025 | NextGen P | 1.00 | R | 2725 | ±1.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
144d old Poll was fielded 144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,725 Sample size of 2,725 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Katie Hobbs 51.0 · Andy Biggs 32.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2025 | NextGen P | 1.00 | R | 2725 | ±1.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
144d old Poll was fielded 144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=2,725 Sample size of 2,725 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Katie Hobbs 51.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 30.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 850 | ±3.3 | RV | 🟡181d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Katie Hobbs 44.0 · Andy Biggs 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 850 | ±3.3 | RV | 🟡181d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Katie Hobbs 44.0 · David Schweikert 39.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 850 | ±3.3 | RV | 🟡181d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Katie Hobbs 43.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 744 | ±3.6 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
194d old Poll was fielded 194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 43.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 948 | ±3.2 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡265d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
265d old Poll was fielded 265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 39.0 · Andy Biggs 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/18/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 948 | ±3.2 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡265d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
265d old Poll was fielded 265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 38.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1026 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡359d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
359d old Poll was fielded 359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Andy Biggs 38.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1026 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡359d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
359d old Poll was fielded 359 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 41.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 39.0 | pollarch |
| 4/9/2025 | Pulse Decision Science | 1.00 | R | 501 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
396d old Poll was fielded 396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 46.0 · Andy Biggs 42.0 | pollarch |
| 4/9/2025 | Pulse Decision Science | 1.00 | R | 501 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
396d old Poll was fielded 396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 47.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 38.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Andy Biggs 38.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 43.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 35.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 39.0 · Charlie Kirk 36.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Jake Hoffman 35.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 37.0 · Jack McCain 36.0 | pollarch |
| 2/13/2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1.00 | —(D+3.0) | 1006 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls🟡451d old+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
451d old Poll was fielded 451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Kimberly Yee 34.0 | pollarch |
| 2/7/2025 | Kreate Strategies | 1.00 | — | 924 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
457d old Poll was fielded 457 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 43.0 · Andy Biggs 44.0 | pollarch |
| 2/7/2025 | Kreate Strategies | 1.00 | — | 924 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
457d old Poll was fielded 457 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Katie Hobbs 40.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 38.0 | pollarch |